• SF on schedule: 49ers convert 46.4% on third downs (91st percentile), a key edge for sustaining drives when the pass game is trimmed.

• NYG run D stress: Giants allow explosive runs on 6.7% of carries (11th percentile weakness), a poor fit against a McCaffrey-led plan.

• Dart vs reduced rush: 49ers’ sack rate generated is 2.2% (3rd percentile); their pressure-to-sack conversion is also 2.2% (3rd), which can help a mobile rookie.

• Explosive pass check: Giants’ defense rates strong at limiting explosive passes (84th percentile), which can cap SF’s deep shot value.

• Red-zone tilt: Giants allow TDs on 68.0% of red-zone trips (9th percentile defense), a green light for SF’s short-yardage run game.

• Availability risk: Purdy (SF) and multiple NYG pass-catchers carry Questionable tags; plan for late news and volatility.

• Anchor spread: 49ers -3.5 at +104. Edge comes from SF’s third-down advantage and NYG’s run defense profile, but QB status adds risk.

• Anchor total: 48.5 with Under -115 and Over -112. If SF leans heavy run and NYG’s weapons remain limited, the Under case strengthens.

• Moneyline: 49ers -145 vs Giants +130. The price bakes in SF’s efficiency edge and NYG injuries.

• First half lean: 49ers first-half winner -152 if you expect an early script of run, defense, and field position.

• Props, if active:

  • Christian McCaffrey anytime TD -250: steep juice; correlates with NYG’s poor red-zone defense.

  • Christian McCaffrey over 68.5 rush -120: matches NYG’s explosive-run issue.

  • Demarcus Robinson over 18.5 receiving -122: low bar if targets consolidate.

  • Jaxson Dart under 209.5 pass -119 (volatility: Q): injuries to WR room can cap volume/efficiency.

  • Jauan Jennings anytime +180 (volatility: Q): red-zone angle if active.

Note: Do not stake props on players listed Out. Questionable players carry added variance; size bets accordingly and consider waiting for inactives.

San Francisco have the cleaner path. Their third-down efficiency and under-center identity fit a run-first plan against a Giants defense that leaks explosive runs and struggles in the red zone. That keeps the 49ers out of long passing downs and shortens the game.

New York’s hope is Jaxson Dart buying time against a 49ers rush that has not finished plays without its stars. If the Giants protect and hit a couple of chunk throws, they can hang. But with multiple pass-catchers banged up and key playmakers on IR, sustained drives will be hard to stack.

Given the profiles, 49ers -3.5 (+104) is reasonable if you accept QB uncertainty and late news risk. The Under 48.5 (-115) also has a case if San Francisco’s ground game and New York’s injuries slow pace and limit explosives.

As always, price matters and injuries decide plenty. If Purdy sits or multiple NYG pass-catchers clear, reassess. Bet within your limits and size down when availability is unclear.