Friday’s MLB Recap: High Scores, Bullpen Shakeups, and Top Bets

Slugfests, Shutouts, and Shaky Bullpens: Friday’s MLB Recap for Bettors

If you like runs—and lots of them—Friday’s MLB slate delivered in spades. From 33-run thrillers to dominant pitching performances and everything in between, it was a buffet of betting angles and late-inning drama. Let’s break down the top storylines and what they mean for your next wager.

The Scoreboard Exploded in Colorado—and Elsewhere

The Colorado Rockies and Pittsburgh Pirates combined for 33 runs in a true Coors Field classic, with the Rockies clawing back for a 17-16 win. That game alone could’ve cashed the over twice. While Paul Skenes has been a bright spot for Pittsburgh, the Pirates bullpen was shredded, and that's becoming a troubling theme. The Rockies, sellers at the deadline, are now without key bats like Ryan McMahon, which makes their offensive explosion more of an outlier than a trend.

Meanwhile, the Yankees and Marlins played a 13-12 slugfest that felt more like a football score than baseball. Miami’s bullpen, which had been relatively reliable, nearly gave the game away. The Yankees’ trade-deadline bullpen upgrades didn’t show up in that one, and their back-end pitching remains a question mark. Stay cautious about betting the under in Yankees games until the new-look bullpen finds its footing—if it ever does.

Pitching Gems and Under Trends

On the flip side, aces were dealing in several matchups. The Cubs edged the Orioles 1-0 with Trevor Rogers tossing eight innings of one-run ball. The Cubs bullpen shut it down, and with the wind blowing in at Wrigley, the under was the sharp play. In fact, the Cubs are quietly becoming one of the better under teams in the league, thanks to solid pitching and inconsistent offense.

Similarly, the Dodgers blanked the Rays 5-0 behind a strong bullpen effort despite their rotation being decimated by injuries. It’s impressive how L.A. continues to find ways to win, but their offensive inconsistency and patchwork pitching staff make them a risky favorite against high-powered lineups like Tampa Bay. Keep the under in mind when the Dodgers face other competent pitching staffs, especially without a full-strength offense.

Trade Deadline Fallout: AL Goes All In, NL Shrugs

The trade deadline told two very different stories across the leagues. American League teams like the Rangers, Royals, and Angels were aggressive buyers. The Royals added Randall Grichuk and are now mashing the ball, hitting four homers in a 9-3 win over the Blue Jays. Their offensive upgrades are paying dividends, and they’re emerging as a dark horse in the wild card race. Betting on their team totals or money line against middling opponents could be profitable moving forward.

The Padres also made smart deadline moves and picked up a 4-1 win over the Cardinals. Their bullpen is shaping up to be one of the best in baseball, and their offense is finally showing signs of life. They're a team to watch for both straight-up bets and unders, thanks to shutdown late-inning relief.

In contrast, the NL Central was largely silent. The Brewers and Cubs were disappointingly inactive, which is puzzling in a winnable division. Yet, Milwaukee destroyed the Nationals 16-4 behind Brandon Woodruff, who continues to be a rock in the rotation. The Brewers are a great bet when Woodruff is on the mound, especially against weak offenses like Washington’s, which averages just four runs per game at home.

Games to Watch: Totals, Pitching Matchups, and Value Picks

Looking ahead, a few matchups offer intriguing betting angles:

• Reds vs. Braves at Bristol Motor Speedway: Yes, you read that right—it’s a ballgame at a NASCAR track. The total is hovering around 8.7, but given the unique venue and shaky bullpens, the over looks juicy. Both teams have power bats and erratic starters, so expect fireworks.
• A’s vs. Diamondbacks: Zac Gallen has been getting shelled lately, giving up 16 runs in his last three starts. JT Ginn has struggled at home for the A’s. Despite that, Oakland’s young core is intriguing, and the money line and run line on the A’s are worth a look.
• Guardians vs. Twins: Tanner Bibee has been reliable for Cleveland, while Minnesota’s pitching situation is murky. The Guardians’ offense is weak at home, but this might be a prime under spot depending on the total.
• Astros vs. Red Sox: With Colton Gordon and Walker Buehler on the mound, and both lineups capable of slugging, this game leans over, especially with Boston averaging over five runs per game recently.

Bullpen Watch: The Deciding Factor in Tight Games

Relievers were a hot commodity at the deadline, and it’s already affecting outcomes. The Mets and Phillies both bolstered their bullpens and are seeing immediate returns. The Phillies edged the Tigers 5-4 in large part due to late-inning shutdowns. On the other hand, teams like the Giants, who sold off bullpen arms, are now struggling to close games effectively, as evidenced by their narrow 4-3 win Friday.

Don’t underestimate bullpen strength when betting totals or money lines, especially in games with low spreads. A shaky pen can turn a sure under into a painful extra-inning over.

Key Takeaways

• Bet the over when the Rockies are at home—especially against teams with bullpen issues like the Pirates.
• The Padres and Royals are trending up post-deadline; keep targeting them on the money line.
• Yankees games are risky for unders until their new bullpen settles in.
• Cubs games are a good under play, especially at home with wind in.
• Watch bullpen upgrades like those by the Phillies and Mets—they’re already paying dividends.
• Unique venues like Bristol Speedway can favor the over, so don’t rely on traditional park factors.