2025-26 NBA Awards Betting: MVP Odds, Dark Horses & Key Bets

2025-26 NBA Awards Betting Preview: MVP Favorites, Dark Horses, and Season Totals to Watch

It’s prediction season, and nothing gets the NBA betting juices flowing quite like award talk. From MVP to Most Improved, Defensive Player of the Year to Coach of the Year, the futures market is full of value—if you know where to look. So let’s dive into the latest podcast chatter to break down the best odds, sneaky picks, and teams trending toward cashing or crashing those win total tickets.

The MVP Race: Shai, Jokic, Luka...or a Sleeper?

The preseason MVP odds are already sizzling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the pack at +160, followed by Nikola Jokic at +300, Luka Doncic at +400, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid at +1200, and Anthony Edwards lurking at +2500. But who’s really worth a wager?

Jokic is the safest bet. He’s the best player in the world, and after being snubbed last year despite averaging a near 30-point triple-double and shooting 60 percent from the field, voters might be itching to make things right. A fourth MVP would put him in rare air, alongside names like LeBron and Magic, and with Denver still likely to win 55-plus games, the narrative is all there.

Luka’s case is compelling, too. He’s healthier than ever and enters his first season with the Lakers—yes, really—with a chip on his shoulder and a high-powered supporting cast. But unless LA hits 50 wins, he’s probably on the outside looking in. Luka’s always a preseason favorite, but until he proves he can lead a team to a top-three seed, it's tough to ride that bet.

Shai is the wild card. If OKC lands the top seed out West, he could repeat. But with MVP voting often favoring bounce-back narratives, a regression may open the door for Jokic or even a dark horse like Giannis, who’s quietly putting up his usual bonkers stat line (30-12-6 on 60% shooting). If the Bucks overachieve, he’s a prime candidate for his third MVP.

Want a real long shot? Cade Cunningham at +5000 is the kind of flyer that could pay off big. If he makes the leap and Detroit surprises, expect some buzz. Victor Wembanyama also sneaks into the conversation, but the Spurs would need a miracle 50-win season to give him real MVP traction.

Most Improved Player: Who's Ready to Leap?

The MIP award is always a bit of a wild west, but a few names keep popping up. Amen Thompson and Andrew Nembhard are trendy picks, with strong preseason buzz and new roles that could boost their numbers. Shane Sharpe, Jalen Johnson, and Bennedict Mathurin are also in the mix, with the potential to turn heads on young teams expected to take a step forward.

Michael Porter Jr., now with Brooklyn, has a new opportunity to shine as a featured option. If he stays healthy (a big “if”), he could be a surprising breakout. Other names drawing attention include Reed Sheppard and Cam Whitmore, while Cade Cunningham and Wembanyama are unique cases who could contend for both MVP and MIP depending on how their seasons unfold.

Defensive Player of the Year: Wemby’s Award to Lose?

If Victor Wembanyama suits up for at least 65 games, Defensive Player of the Year might already have his name on it. He’s the frontrunner for a reason, with generational rim protection and the potential to anchor a top-five defense in San Antonio. Chet Holmgren and Anthony Davis are also in the mix, with Mobley (last year’s DPOY) looming as a dark horse if Cleveland’s defense holds up.

Don’t sleep on Bam Adebayo in Miami or Jalen Suggs in Orlando if their teams crack the top five defensively. And for deep-cut fans, Avica Zubac is a name to watch in LA. If the Clippers surprise and finish with an elite defense, he could steal votes.

Coach of the Year: Betting the Bench Bosses

The COY award tends to reward either the best team, the biggest turnaround, or the biggest overachievement. Joe Mazzulla (+1500) and Rick Carlisle are solid bets, with Mazzulla’s Celtics expected to contend and Carlisle’s Pacers looking to build on last year’s momentum. Quinn Snyder in Atlanta is another name to circle—he’s innovative, respected, and has flirted with this award before.

Ty Lue and Erik Spoelstra are always in the conversation, and Mitch Johnson could get some love if the Spurs make noise. The formula is simple: coach a team that outperforms expectations, and you’re in the mix.

Win Total Watch: Bulls, Pistons, Cavs, and More

Let’s run through a few teams who could surprise—or disappoint—against their preseason win totals.

Chicago Bulls (32.5): The eternal "plan champs" refuse to tank, and that cheese-on-a-wheel mentality means they’ll chase the 10-seed until the bitter end. They’re not good, but they try hard. That’s enough to go over, barely.

Detroit Pistons (45.5): If Cade stays healthy, this team might be a six seed. They’re deep, scrappy, and have real upside. Over bettors should feel good here—just keep an eye on Cade’s availability.

Cleveland Cavaliers (56.5): They won 64 last year, but that might’ve been their peak. Injuries, a meh bench, and playoff letdowns suggest a slight regression. Under looks like the safer play with that high number.

Brooklyn Nets (20.5): The owner basically said they’re tanking. That’s all you need to know. Slam the under.

Philadelphia 76ers (42.5): Betting on Embiid to play 65 games is a tough ask. With health concerns for Paul George and a thin supporting cast, the under is far too tempting for a team that always seems to disappoint.

New York Knicks (53.5): This team is loaded and angry after last year’s playoff exit. With a deep bench and a new coach breathing life into the locker room, the Knicks are built to dominate the regular season. The over might be one of the best bets on the board.

Takeaways

• Jokic for MVP is the most logical pick, especially with voter fatigue off his back and Denver poised for another strong season.
• Dark horse MVPs like Cade Cunningham and Victor Wembanyama offer huge upside at long odds—worth a sprinkle.
• Wemby is the DPOY favorite for a reason. He’s a game-changing defender who just needs to stay on the court.
• The Knicks and Pistons look like solid over bets, while the Nets and Sixers scream under.
• Keep an eye on Most Improved candidates like Amen Thompson, Jalen Johnson, and even Michael Porter Jr. in new roles.

Buckle up, because this NBA season is packed with storylines, breakout stars, and betting value. Whether you're riding with the favorites or hunting for long shots, the futures market is wide open. Let the games—and the wagers—begin.