2026 NBA Awards: Bold Sleeper Picks with High Upside

Way Too Early, Way Too Spicy: 2026 NBA Awards Picks That Might Just Hit

If you're already trying to predict the 2026 NBA Awards, you're either a time traveler or just love chaos. Either way, we’re here for it. From MVP to Defensive Player of the Year, we're diving deep into the jalapeño-to-Carolina-reaper scale of predictions. These aren't your chalky preseason favorites, these are the bold bets, the long shots, the "wait, really?" picks that just might cash if the stars align. And in the NBA, they often do, in wonderfully weird ways.

MVP: Cade, KD, and a Healthy Embiid?

Let’s start with the big one: MVP. Everyone’s got their eyes on the usual suspects, Giannis, Luka, Jokic. But where’s the fun in that? Cade Cunningham is the name that’s buzzing for those who want a little heat with their moneyline. Coming off a season where he snuck into the MVP conversation and with the Pistons ready to make a possible leap into the East’s top four, he’s your perfect value pick. If Detroit can win 50+ games? Watch the narrative catch fire.

Now crank the heat. Kevin Durant as a Carolina Reaper pick to win MVP if he ends up making a surprise move to Houston? That’s betting on health, fit, and a team already built like a top-five defense. If Durant logs 70+ games and reminds everyone he’s still Him, it’s not as outlandish as it sounds.

Joel Embiid? Sure, he’s been there before, and injuries are always a concern. But if he can stay upright and produce at his pre-injury MVP pace, don’t be shocked. Voter fatigue is real, but so is domination, and Embiid still brings plenty of both.

Coach of the Year: Charles Lee and the Surprise Hornets

Betting Coach of the Year is less about who’s the best coach and more about who exceeds expectations. Which is why Charles Lee is a name to circle in permanent ink. If the Hornets make noise in the East, yes, that’s a big “if”, Lee will get plenty of love in his first year at the helm. The schedule gods may have gifted them nine games against the Wizards, which doesn’t hurt the win column either.

Nick Nurse could also ride a Joel Embiid resurgence to Coach of the Year if the Sixers click under his system. And don’t sleep on Chauncey Billups in Portland. If Scoot Henderson makes a leap and the Blazers flirt with play-in territory, Billups will get his flowers.

Rookie of the Year: Beyond the Lottery

Sure, most Rookie of the Year winners come from the top 10 picks, but where’s the fun in that? Derek Queen, despite an injury hiccup in Summer League, could be a sleeper hit in New Orleans. The Pelicans are invested, and he’ll get minutes, sometimes that’s all it takes.

Ace Bailey in Utah is another spicy option. The Jazz will give him offensive freedom, and his scoring punch could make him a standout. Don’t ignore Igor Dio Man in Brooklyn either, he’s got the tools and a team in flux that may let him shine. And if Cooper Flag somehow finds his way into the rotation and flashes that two-way talent? Look out.

Most Improved: Scoot and the Mentorship Effect

Scoot Henderson is the people’s pick here, and for good reason. With a year under his belt and better teammates around him, possibly including a savvy vet like Jrue Holiday, he’s set up perfectly for that sophomore leap. His physical tools are elite, and now he just needs the reps. If the Blazers take a step forward, Scoot will be a big reason why, and bettors should take note.

J Huff from Indiana, though? That’s Carolina Reaper-level spicy. But the Pacers like what they see, and he’s got the modern big man skill set that could surprise everyone if he cracks the rotation and finds his groove.

Sixth Man: Porzingis in a New Role?

If you’re squinting hard enough, you can see it: Kristaps Porzingis coming off the bench in Atlanta and dropping efficient, high-impact minutes. If he’s not the primary scorer but plays in closing lineups and boosts the Hawks' offense when he’s on the court, his impact could be undeniable. It’s a longshot, he might start, but if he qualifies, KP has the profile of a Sixth Man sleeper.

Defensive Player of the Year: Stars and Stoppers

The Rockets are already a defensive juggernaut, and adding another high-level star could push them into elite territory. If that star is someone like Kevin Durant, and he commits on that end, it’s not outrageous to imagine him getting DPOY buzz. Voters love a redemption arc, especially when it comes with blocked shots and lockdown sequences.

But don’t overlook Ausar Thompson in Detroit. The Pistons are building something, and Thompson is being tasked with guarding the best player on the opposing team night in and night out. He’s got the length, quickness, and defensive instincts to make a leap. If Detroit gets better and he gets more minutes (with his health issues behind him), he could very well become the best perimeter defender in the league, and voters will notice.

Takeaways

• Cade Cunningham is a legitimate MVP sleeper if the Pistons break out in the East.
• Kevin Durant and Joel Embiid are spicy MVP picks with high-risk, high-reward profiles.
• Charles Lee could ride an overperforming Hornets squad to Coach of the Year honors.
• Scoot Henderson is primed for a sophomore surge, buy low now for Most Improved.
• Ausar Thompson might be the NBA’s next elite perimeter defender, keep an eye on DPOY odds.