Portland has won two of its last three road games and enters with significantly better form. The Blazers score 112 PPG over their last five and play composed basketball away from home. They should find Chicago vulnerable from the opening tip.

The game hinges on Josh Giddey, Chicago's ball-handler and offensive engine. He's been catastrophic. After averaging 17.8 PPG on the season, Giddey has fallen to just 12.4 PPG over his last ten games, a decline of 5.4 points. He's shooting only 45.3 percent from the field and 36.4 percent from three. Chicago's entire offense runs through him. If Giddey stays cold, the Bulls have no answer for Portland.

• Chicago's 0-4 home record in recent games is the real story. The Bulls haven't won at the United Center in an extended stretch and are being outscored by 16.4 PPG in their last five games.
• Josh Giddey's five-point scoring drought (17.8 PPG season to 12.4 last ten) breaks Chicago's offensive flow. He's forcing shots instead of facilitating, which cascades through the entire team.
• Portland's 2-1 recent road record (12-16 overall at 42.9 percent) proves they execute away from home. They'll find open looks against Chicago's weak defense (117.4 rating, #25 in the league).
• Matas Buzelis is the only Bull generating buckets without forcing it (16.2 PPG last ten, up 0.9). If he struggles early, Chicago's offense has zero depth and collapses entirely.
• This game should be tight and low-scoring early. Portland takes a lead through two quarters, Chicago desperately pushes in the third if Giddey finds rhythm, and Portland escapes on execution and free throws.
• Chicago's defensive problems (117.4 rating, #25) cannot slow Portland's ball movement and spacing. The Blazers should score consistently while the Bulls struggle to find any offensive rhythm.

The best angle is Chicago's systematic home dysfunction. Josh Giddey is in a five-point drought, the spacing is broken, and the defense is porous. Portland enters as the sharper, more composed team. I'd project a 117-114 finish favoring the Blazers, with a cover and a low-scoring game that reflects one team visiting a house of dysfunction.

The one caveat: if Giddey suddenly breaks out of his slump or Buzelis dominates early, this tightens. The -1.0 spread already prices in some variance. But on balance, Portland's recent form and Chicago's complete home collapse create a clear edge for the Blazers and the Under.