This is a massive talent mismatch. Charlotte's offense ranks sixth in the NBA. Indiana's defense ranks 22nd. When elite scoring meets elite weakness, the numbers usually get ugly fast. The Hornets are averaging 116.8 points per game over their last five with a plus-8.6 margin, while the Pacers are giving up 124.4 points per night on a minus-8.0 margin. One team is surging. The other is sinking.

Charlotte's playmakers are clicking too. LaMelo Ball is averaging 20.5 points and 7.3 assists, and Kon Knueppel has been elite from three, shooting 48.9% from the field and 43.6% from distance. Even the role players are hot. Coby White is running 9.3 points above his season average in the last 10 games. Indiana will have no answer for the pace and spacing Charlotte can create.

• Charlotte's sixth-ranked offense will attack Indiana's 22nd-ranked defense from the opening whistle. The Hornets average 116.8 PPG on a plus-8.6 margin over five games.
• LaMelo Ball's penetration and court vision at 7.3 assists per game will create easy looks for shooters like Kon Knueppel (48.9% FG) and Brandon Miller (42.1% FG).
• Coby White's surge of 9.3 points above his season average shows Charlotte's depth is peaking at exactly the right time for a dominant performance.
• Indiana's home woes (0-2 recent, 10-20 season record) combined with a minus-8.0 margin over five games signal serious dysfunction at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
• Pascal Siakam at 23.9 points per game will be overworked as Indiana's only reliable two-way threat, forced to chase Hornets shooters all night.
• Charlotte's road form is elite: 2-0 recent with a plus-4.8 margin away for the season. They thrive in hostile environments and should impose their will here.

The best angle here is Over 228.5. Yes, Charlotte will win big and cover the minus-13.0, but the total is the real value. Both teams can score freely in this matchup. Charlotte will build a lead early and manage pace down the stretch, but Indiana will still put points on the board in garbage time. The Pacers average 116.4 PPG even over their miserable last five. Add Charlotte's 120-plus, and you're hitting the over by halftime.

One caveat: Indiana's 10-20 home record is historically bad, and teams this dysfunctional can sometimes show life in a spot game. But everything points toward Charlotte imposing their will. This looks like a statement win for a Hornets team hitting their stride.