Golden State swept Memphis 2-0 earlier this season, so they have recent success to build on. But road games are different animals. A team that wins only 39% of its road games is dealing with a real pattern. The Warriors will lean on their experience and depth. If Curry finds rhythm and Golden State executes their spacing, they should outlast a Grizzlies team that has gone 3-7 over their last 10. Memphis, though, has one big advantage: the home crowd and fresher legs. They can push pace and attack in transition, where tired road warriors typically crack.

The one-point line reflects this tension. Both teams have a real path to win. The question is whether Golden State's talent overcomes their road curse or whether Memphis's situation steals one.

• Memphis will attack in transition early, testing whether Golden State's short rest and road fatigue lead to defensive breakdowns on the perimeter.
• Curry's 4.4-point scoring dip (down to 22.8 PPG in his last 10) means the Warriors' offensive spacing could be predictable, giving Memphis's defense a real chance to compete.
• Golden State's turnover problem is severe: 16.2 per game in their last 10. Memphis's guards can force mistakes and convert them into easy points if the Warriors stay loose with the ball.
• Rest compounds over 48 minutes. Memphis has had three days to prepare, Golden State only two. In grinding games, that gap becomes real in the fourth quarter.
• Ja Morant's playmaking will be the key to a Memphis win. He averages 8.1 assists and faces a Warriors defense that is solid (#8 ranked) but not elite, especially when tired.
• Golden State's 39.3% road win rate is not an outlier. It is a pattern. In a one-point game, that pattern usually shows up.

This is not a play saying Memphis is better than Golden State. It is saying Memphis's advantages, home court plus extra rest plus fresher legs in transition, overcome Golden State's talent gap in this specific scenario. A one-point spread is too tight. We are not claiming Memphis wins 70% of the time, but 50-55% is reasonable given the situational weight. That is value.

The caveat: Golden State won the last two meetings and Curry does eventually break out of slumps. If the Warriors' shooters find rhythm early, they can blow past Memphis before rest matters. Variance always shows up. But on balance, Memphis +1.0 is the smart money in this one.