But here's the wrinkle. The Raptors already beat the Thunder this season, 103-101 at home on January 25th. Toronto's home court is real. They're 16-13 at Scotiabank Arena with a +1.1 point differential, and their crowd gives them a genuine edge. The Thunder will have three days of rest, same as Toronto, so fatigue isn't a factor.

Both teams are 6-4 in their last 10 games, so form is even. Brandon Ingram has been hot for Toronto, averaging 23.1 points per game over his last 10 while shooting 47.2 percent from the field. He'll need to stay aggressive against Oklahoma City's elite defense, ranked number one in the league at 106.1 points allowed per 100 possessions.

This matchup will test whether road dominance matters more than home court. The Thunder are 20-7 away from home with a plus-11.4 point differential on the road. That's elite. But Toronto's number six-ranked defense and home crowd will make this a grind.

• Oklahoma City's elite defense (106.1 DRtg, number one) will pressure Toronto's offense, which ranks 16th in offensive rating.
• Toronto's number six defense (111.7 DRtg) can slow the Thunder's balanced attack, but OKC has multiple scorers in double figures every night.
• Expect a tight first half with the Raptors using home court to stay close. Thunder pull away late with depth and experience.
• Brandon Ingram must stay aggressive for Toronto. He's been their best player in the last 10, and the Raptors can't win being reactive.
• Neither team plays fast. Toronto paces out at 99.3 (21st in league), Thunder at 100.7 (15th). This won't be a track meet.
• Scottie Barnes' playmaking and rebounding (8.4 RPG) will be key for Toronto to keep possessions alive and limit Thunder's transition opportunities.

• The Raptors at plus-2.5 is your primary angle. They're 1-0 against the Thunder this season, playing at home where they've shown plus-1.1 differential, and home court typically swings 2-3 points in Toronto's favor.
• Toronto's number six defense (111.7 DRtg) is elite. Combined with moderate pace on both sides, expect a grind. Under 216.0 points is the secondary play.
• Brandon Ingram's recent hot streak (23.1 PPG in L10, 47.2% FG) makes him a prop target. He'll have to work against the Thunder's top-ranked defense, but he's shown he can compete at this level.
• The Thunder's road record is otherworldly: 20-7 (74.1%), plus-11.4 point differential away. Don't sleep on the contrarian case that OKC is simply the better team and wears Toronto down.
• Toronto averages 43.0 rebounds per game over their last 10 games. Controlling the glass and extending possessions helps the Raptors stay close, supporting the plus-2.5 spread value.
• Scottie Barnes' 5.6 assists per game gives Toronto multiple scoring threats. If Toronto can keep the game close and play at the right pace to stay in rhythm, they've got a shot.

The best angle is Toronto at plus-2.5. The secondary play is Under 216.0 points, since both teams play moderate pace and elite defenses typically make for lower-scoring games. Look for a tight game until the final minutes, with the Thunder's depth eventually winning out if this goes down to the wire. The predicted flow is Thunder 107, Raptors 104, a game decided by three possessions in the fourth quarter.

One caveat: variance matters in sports betting. The Thunder are the better team and will prove it many times this season. Even good picks lose. But on this night, in this place, Toronto's value is real.