The Nets' away numbers are genuinely alarming: 7-22 on the road (24.1%), scoring just 103.0 PPG away versus 110.9 at home. Boston's home court is no joke either, with a +22.8 point differential at TD Garden this season. When you layer in that the Nets are 0-5 and have lost 6 straight overall, the gravity of this spot becomes clear. This isn't a game that needs deep analysis. It's a reckoning.

Jaylen Brown is averaging 29.1 PPG (47.9% FG) this season and 26.1 over the last 10 games. He's about to face a Nets perimeter defense that can't stay in front of anyone, on a night when Boston will likely establish an early lead and keep the pedal down. Michael Porter Jr. is the only Nets scorer with any juice (24.6 PPG), but back-to-back fatigue and blowout script will limit his volume. The NBA doesn't have many games this clean in terms of expected outcome.

• The Celtics' #2 offensive rating (119.5) faces the Nets' #26 defense (117.8). That's the worst matchup possible. Boston should get whatever it wants offensively.
• Nets' away splits are catastrophic: 7-22 (24.1%), -11.7 PPG away. Boston's defense isn't elite, but the Nets simply don't score on the road. Expect under 100 Nets points.
• Back-to-back pressure on Brooklyn. The Nets are coming off a San Antonio loss and trying to survive their second consecutive night. Bench units won't change this outcome.
• Celtics' pace (95.5, #30 league-wide) is slower than Brooklyn's (97.0, #27). Boston doesn't need pace to blow this out. They'll control the game in transition and half-court alike.
• The blowout scenario is fully priced in. Boston's 90.1% win probability doesn't give much edge on the moneyline, but the margin of victory is where the real action lives.
• Season series favors Boston 2-1 (avg margin 3.3 points), but those games don't capture how historically bad the Nets have become over the past five games. This version of Brooklyn is worse than the team Boston already swept.

Jaylen Brown is the secondary play. He's averaging 29.1 PPG on 47.9% shooting and won't see meaningful defensive pressure tonight. The blowout script means extended minutes and rhythm. Look for him to crack 30 easily.

One caveat: nothing in the NBA is guaranteed. Variance exists even in spots this obvious. But you'd have to squint really hard to find a scenario where Boston doesn't win by double digits. The data isn't even close.