What stands out here is the scoring potential on both sides. Houston's Kevin Durant remains elite (23 PPG last 10 at 50.8% FG), while Alperen Sengun (18.5 PPG, 9.2 RPG) controls the paint. But Orlando's secondary scorers are hot right now. Bane has jumped from 20.2 PPG season average to 24.2 last 10, shooting 48.3% overall and 38.4% from three. Jalen Suggs has cooled slightly but still provides spacing. This matchup comes down to pace and efficiency, with both offenses capable of sustained scoring runs.

The Rockets' #4 defense (111.4 rating) will hunt Orlando's 11.4 turnovers per game over the last five. But the Magic's zone alignment and three-point shooting keep them dangerous. Early pressure could determine whether this stays close or becomes a runaway.

• Rockets will hunt for turnovers and run pace. Orlando's 11.4 turnovers per game last five is a target, and Houston's elite defense can force disruption.
• Magic will lean zone and spacing to pack the paint. But with Bane hot (38.4% 3P) and Durant elite from distance (40.9% 3P), both offenses have the firepower to punish defensive overcommitment.
• Kevin Durant's isolation opportunities will set the tone. Magic's wings must execute on-ball defense; if Durant gets easy looks, Houston pulls away fast.
• Alperen Sengun's playmaking breaks zones. Sengun's 6.4 APG last 10 games means he can create when Magic overplay the perimeter.
• Halftime will be tight (analyst projects 57-56 Rockets), but third-quarter execution decides blowouts. Houston's defensive pressure and Durant's mid-range touch should create separation.
• Bane's hand will be checked early. If Orlando's surge scorer starts hot, it energizes the home crowd; if Houston contains him, Rockets pull away on Durant's efficiency.

On the side, lean Rockets -135 with confidence in their elite defense and Durant's mid-range arsenal. Orlando's home court is real (65.4% win rate at home, plus-2.4 margin), but the gap in defensive rating and Houston's current rhythm matters. If Bane stays hot and Orlando's zone holds tight, it's a sweat. Most likely, Houston pulls away by 3-5 points in the third quarter.

The best angle remains the Over. One caveat: late-game fouling and free throws can compress totals in tight games. Neither team is a high-volume free-throw maker, so if this tightens in the fourth quarter, the total could land just under the Over. Bet it knowing variance is in play.