CAR @ ARI - Complete Statistical Matchup Analysis

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Carolina visits Arizona on Sunday, 14 September (1:00 PM ET) at State Farm Stadium in Glendale. It’s Week 2, and the Cardinals look set up to control the script. The moneyline says so too: Arizona sits around -323.

The matchup leans toward Arizona’s defence against Bryce Young. The Cardinals have allowed explosive passes on just 2.1% of attempts so far (94th percentile). Carolina’s offence has created explosives on only 2.9% of dropbacks (12th). That’s a bad mix for a Panthers passing game that needs easy yards.

On the ground, Arizona has a clearer edge. The Cards rank well for explosive runs (7.4%, 81st), while Carolina’s front has leaked chunk gains (6.3% allowed, 23rd). That pairs well with James Conner’s red-zone role. Carolina’s injuries don’t help: DT Tershawn Wharton is out, and LT Ikem Ekwonu is questionable, which could stress both lines.

There is one Arizona worry: protection. The Cardinals have allowed sacks on 14.7% of dropbacks (3rd percentile) and have injuries along the line. The saving grace for Arizona is Carolina’s weak pass-rush production (bottom tier in early pressure-to-sack metrics). If the Cards keep Murray clean enough, their overall advantages should carry.

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[SECTION: GAME_DETAILS>

HOME_TEAM: ARI
AWAY_TEAM: CAR
DATE: 14SEP25
VENUE: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Kick Off Time (ET): 04:05pm
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[SECTION: TEAM_FORM>

away_team_record: 0-1-0
away_team_ats: 0-1-0
away_team_ou: 0-1-0
home_team_record: 1-0-0
home_team_ats: 1-0-0
home_team_ou: 0-1-0
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[SECTION: TEAM_LAST10>

home_team_last10_record: 5-5-0
home_team_last10_ats: 7-3-0
home_team_last10_ou: 4-6-0
away_team_last10_record: 4-6-0
away_team_last10_ats: 3-7-0
away_team_last10_ou: 7-3-0
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[SECTION: TEAM_NEXT3>

away_team_upcoming: TBD, TBD, TBD
home_team_upcoming: TBD, TBD, TBD
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[SECTION: INJURIES>

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[SECTION: KEY_INSIGHTS>

• Explosive pass split: ARI D allows 2.1% explosive passes (94th; 47 opp passes) vs CAR O creates 2.9% (12th; 34 dropbacks).

• Run game path: ARI explosive run rate 7.4% (81st; 27 rushes) vs CAR allows 6.3% explosive runs (23rd; 32 opp rushes).

• Pass-rush vs protection: ARI sack rate allowed 14.7% (3rd; 34 dropbacks), but CAR sack rate generated is bottom tier (9th; 31 opp dropbacks, small sample).

• Pace lever: CAR no-huddle 11.8% (88th; 76 snaps) could raise play count, but efficiency remains the question.

• Moneyline context: ARI -323 reflects a clear market lean to the home side.

• Small-sample caveat: Several Week-2 traits (e.g., red-zone rates) carry limited snaps. Treat edges as directional, not certain.

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[SECTION: BETTING_INSIGHTS>

• Spread (anchor): Cardinals -4.0 (-182). Short number vs the matchup edges, but heavy juice. If you want a better price, Cardinals -4.5 (-156) is available.

• Total (anchor): 48.5 with Under at -208 / Over at +138. Lean Under at the anchor, but the juice is steep; alternatives like Under 46.5 (-169) or Under 45.5 (-154) exist.

• Moneyline: Cardinals -323 if you prefer a safer side or a parlay leg.

• Panthers Team Total Under 17.5 (-127): Fits the explosives split (ARI pass D strength vs CAR lack of big plays).

• James Conner Anytime TD (-164): ARI run explosives (7.4%) vs CAR run D leak (6.3%) supports touchdown equity.

• Bryce Young Under 201.5 pass yds (-118): ARI’s explosive-pass suppression plus CAR’s low explosive pass rate.

• Kyler Murray Over 1.5 pass TDs (+106): Plus-money tied to an offence with viable red-zone pieces (small-sample RZ note).

• Trey Benson Over 34.5 rush yds (-120): Secondary back but live against a defence allowing chunk runs.

• Trey McBride Over 6.5 receptions (-104): Chain-mover profile if ARI leans underneath.

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[SECTION: FINAL_SUMMARY>

Arizona owns the cleaner paths. The Cardinals limit explosive passes and can run with burst. Carolina has not shown big-play punch, and injuries on both lines add stress. That lines up with a market that favours Arizona at home.

The one thing that could wobble a cover is Arizona’s protection. The Cards’ sack rate allowed is ugly. But Carolina’s pass-rush finish rate has been poor, which may blunt that weakness.

Our card: Cardinals -4.0 (-182) as the anchor spread, with a secondary nod to -4.5 (-156) if you want a better price. Lean Under 48.5 at the anchor, but the juice is heavy; scaling down to a lower total at a fairer price is reasonable. Panthers Team Total Under 17.5 (-127) lines up with the matchup.

For props, Conner Anytime TD (-164), Young Under 201.5 (-118), Murray Over 1.5 TDs (+106), Benson Over 34.5 rush (-120), and McBride Over 6.5 receptions (-104) fit the data. Keep stakes modest. It’s still early, and small samples can swing.

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[SECTION: HOME_PAST_RESULTS>

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[SECTION: AWAY_PAST_RESULTS>

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[SECTION: HEAD_TO_HEAD>

HTH_Win_Loss: 4-1
HTH_ATS: 4-1-0
HTH_OU: 3-2-0

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[SECTION: QB>

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[SECTION: SCORING>

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[SECTION: REDZONE>

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[SECTION: PASSING>

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[SECTION: PASS_PROTECTION>

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[SECTION: RUSHING>

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[SECTION: SUCCESS_RATES>

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[SECTION: TURNOVERS>

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[SECTION: PENALTIES>

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[SECTION: FIELD_GOALS>

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[SECTION: PUNTING>

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[SECTION: RETURNS>

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[SECTION: POSSESSION_TEMPO>

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[SECTION: EXPLOSIVENESS>

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[SECTION: MISC_SPECIAL>

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