CLE @ BAL - Complete Statistical Matchup Analysis

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Cleveland visits Baltimore on Sunday, 14 September (1:00 PM ET) at M&T Bank Stadium. The current anchor is Ravens -9.5 (-172) with a total of 47.5 (Over +110 / Under -161). That’s a big number for an AFC North game, but Baltimore’s offence brings real pop.

The Ravens’ run game is the headline. They’ve hit explosive runs on 14.3% of carries (97th percentile, small early sample n=28). Cleveland can answer with heat up front. The Browns convert pressures into sacks at 11.5% (88th pct, n=26), and Baltimore’s offence has allowed a 9.5% sack rate so far (n=21).

Through the air, Baltimore can create chunk plays, but the defence has sprung leaks. The Ravens have allowed explosive passes on 15.2% of opponent attempts (9th pct, n=46). That gives Joe Flacco a path if Cleveland needs to chase. The Browns’ kicking is a concern, though: 50% field-goal rate (n=2, very small sample) can stall scoring.

Injuries add variance. Lamar Jackson (Questionable) tilts both the spread and the total. DeAndre Hopkins and Patrick Ricard are also Questionable. For Cleveland, C Ethan Pocic and CB Greg Newsome are Questionable. Monitor inactives; volatility is higher if Lamar is limited.

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[SECTION: GAME_DETAILS>

HOME_TEAM: BAL
AWAY_TEAM: CLE
DATE: 14SEP25
VENUE: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Kick Off Time (ET): 01:00pm
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[SECTION: TEAM_FORM>

away_team_record: 0-1-0
away_team_ats: 1-0-0
away_team_ou: 0-1-0
home_team_record: 0-1-0
home_team_ats: 0-1-0
home_team_ou: 1-0-0
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[SECTION: TEAM_LAST10>

home_team_last10_record: 6-4-0
home_team_last10_ats: 6-4-0
home_team_last10_ou: 6-4-0
away_team_last10_record: 1-9-0
away_team_last10_ats: 1-9-0
away_team_last10_ou: 4-6-0
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[SECTION: TEAM_NEXT3>

away_team_upcoming: TBD, TBD, TBD
home_team_upcoming: TBD, TBD, TBD
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[SECTION: INJURIES>

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[SECTION: KEY_INSIGHTS>

• Ravens explosive run rate: 14.3% (97th pct, n=28) Baltimore’s biggest edge.

• Browns finish pressures: 11.5% pressure-to-sack (88th pct, n=26) vs BAL sack rate allowed 9.5% (n=21).

• Ravens allow explosive passes: 15.2% (9th pct, n=46) Browns can find chunk gains.

• Third-down quality on both sides: CLE 56.3% (94th pct, n=16); BAL 54.5% (91st pct, n=11).

• Big-play TD rate: BAL 50.0% (95th pct, n=8) note very small sample.

• Browns FG accuracy: 50.0% (n=2) vs Ravens 100% (n=2) both tiny samples, but late-game totals/ATS matter.

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[SECTION: BETTING_INSIGHTS>

• Spread (anchor): Lean Ravens -9.5 (-172). Edge is their run game (14.3% explosive) and sustained third-downs (54.5%). Juice is heavy; big numbers are vulnerable to backdoors.

• Total (anchor): Lean Under 47.5 (-161). Browns’ explosive rates on offence are modest and their FG rate is shaky (small sample). Juice warning.

• Joe Flacco Over 235.5 pass yards (-120): Price is fair vs a defence allowing 15.2% explosive passes (n=46).

• Jerry Jeudy Over 54.5 receiving yards (-120): Matches Baltimore’s downfield leak; one play can swing it.

• Lamar Jackson Over 46.5 rushing yards (-122): Explosive ground profile supports it; note Questionable tag = higher variance.

• Mark Andrews Anytime TD (+148): Red-zone chain-mover tied to BAL’s strong third-down rate (54.5%).

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[SECTION: FINAL_SUMMARY>

Baltimore is rightly favoured at home. The Ravens’ run game has early-season burst, and their offence converts third downs. Those traits support a chalky angle on the spread, even at a big number. The concern is late-game variance if Cleveland’s rush can get home.

Cleveland’s best path is pressure and a few chunk shots against a Baltimore defence that’s allowed explosive passes at a high rate. If Flacco gets time, he can clear modest yardage marks. The Browns’ kicking wobble and centre/CB injuries add downside if drives stall.

With Lamar Questionable, volatility is real. If he’s close to full go, Baltimore’s rushing and play-action should carry the day. If he’s limited, live markets may favour Browns numbers late.

Bottom line: Ravens to win, spread lean to Baltimore at -9.5 if you trust their ground edge. Total lean Under 47.5 given Cleveland’s scoring profile and special-teams risk. Props that fit the data: Flacco yards, Jeudy yards, Lamar rush, and Andrews to find the paint. Bet sizes should respect the juice and the small-sample nature of Week 2.

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[SECTION: HOME_PAST_RESULTS>

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[SECTION: AWAY_PAST_RESULTS>

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[SECTION: HEAD_TO_HEAD>

HTH_Win_Loss: 3-2
HTH_ATS: 3-2-0
HTH_OU: 3-2-0

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[SECTION: QB>

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[SECTION: SCORING>

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[SECTION: REDZONE>

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[SECTION: PASSING>

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[SECTION: PASS_PROTECTION>

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[SECTION: RUSHING>

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[SECTION: SUCCESS_RATES>

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[SECTION: TURNOVERS>

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[SECTION: PENALTIES>

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[SECTION: FIELD_GOALS>

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[SECTION: PUNTING>

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[SECTION: RETURNS>

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[SECTION: POSSESSION_TEMPO>

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[SECTION: EXPLOSIVENESS>

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[SECTION: MISC_SPECIAL>

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