Early NFL Win Totals: Top Over and Under Picks to Watch

Over or Under? Early Lines We Love (and Hate)

It’s never too early to start planting your flag on NFL win totals, and the latest episode of the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast brought a buffet of bold predictions, spicy takes, and a few eyebrow-raising picks. If you’re looking to get ahead of the betting curve, here are the over/unders that deserve your attention, whether you're riding the hype train or jumping off before the track gives out.

Lions, Bucs, and Cowboys: Hop On the Over Train

Starting with a fan favorite, the Detroit Lions are once again a popular over pick at 10.5 wins. Despite a loaded NFC North and a tougher-than-average schedule, the consensus is clear: talent and coaching will carry the Motor City. The Lions remain one of the most complete teams in the NFC, and with Dan Campbell still chewing through kneecaps and expectations, double-digit wins seem not only possible but probable.

Down south, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at over 9.5 wins is another pick getting love. The Bucs' back half of the season is relatively soft, and they’re returning a stable core on both sides of the ball. If Baker Mayfield continues his late-career renaissance and the defense stays healthy, this could be a sneaky contender for the NFC’s top seed, yes, you read that right.

And then there’s America’s Team. The Dallas Cowboys over 7.5 wins feels like stealing. Even with some offseason noise and coaching changes, the roster remains stacked, especially on defense, assuming Micah Parsons is in the building. Dak Prescott is still a top-tier quarterback, and betting against a team that’s averaged 12 wins over the past three seasons feels like a trap.

Unders That Could Cash: Colts, Saints, Bengals, and Bears

The Indianapolis Colts under 7.5 wins is shaping up as a popular fade. Despite some belief in Shane Steichen’s coaching chops and the presence of playmakers like Jonathan Taylor, the quarterback situation remains murky. Anthony Richardson showed flashes, but durability and development are big question marks. Add in a reshuffled offensive line and a defense in flux, and the floor is frighteningly low, think No. 1 overall pick low.

Another team drawing pessimism: the New Orleans Saints. Under 5.5 wins is a bold call, but there’s logic behind it. Aging core, questionable quarterback play, and a schedule that offers few breathers. They’re a sleeper candidate to finish with the worst record, and if things go sideways early, it could get ugly fast in the Big Easy.

The Cincinnati Bengals are also a surprising under pick at 9.5. The concern? That offensive line. Joe Burrow’s health is always the elephant in the room, and there’s a growing sense that the AFC North might be too tough to navigate without elite protection. If the line falters, so will the Bengals’ postseason hopes.

And let’s not forget the Chicago Bears. Even with offseason hype and Justin Fields believers multiplying, the under remains a popular lean. It's the fourth consecutive year some sharp bettors are fading the Bears, at some point, it’s not stubbornness, it’s tradition.

Playoff Picks and Misses: Who’s In, Who’s Out?

The Packers and Patriots are picking up steam as playoff dark horses. Green Bay, at 25-1 to have the best record, feels optimistic, but not insane, especially in an NFC that lacks true juggernauts outside of Philadelphia and San Francisco. Jordan Love’s development and a sneaky-good defense could surprise. The Patriots? Well, let’s just say the bar is low and Bill Belichick is still lurking in the shadows.

On the flip side, the Lions, Commanders, and Texans are candidates to miss the postseason, despite expectations. Detroit’s pick is more about the volatility of maintaining success after losing coordinators. The Commanders, with a young QB and suspect depth, could implode quickly. And the Texans, despite their feel-good 10-7 season, are facing regression, especially if C.J. Stroud can’t protect the football like he did as a rookie.

Exotic Markets and Long Shot Love

If you like your bets with a side of chaos, the exotic markets are where things get fun. The 49ers at 13-1 for best record is a chic pick, assuming their defense holds and the injury bug stays away. The Texans, at 45-1, are a long shot, but not without merit if Stroud takes another leap and DeMeco Ryans has the defense humming.

For worst record, the Saints lead the charge again, with the Raiders and Commanders close behind. These teams have coaching turnover, roster holes, and brutal early schedules. Don’t be shocked if one of them starts 0-4 and never recovers.

For the last undefeated team? The Cardinals and Colts are getting very contrarian love, thanks to a favorable early schedule. But if you’re serious, the Patriots and Ravens might be the smarter dart throws.

Scoring Markets: Points Mean Profits

Looking to bet on points scored or avoided? The Ravens are a solid pick to lead the league in scoring, with Lamar Jackson commanding a loaded offense. At 8-1, it’s not outrageous value, but it’s grounded in reality. Long shots like the Bears and Cowboys also got mentions, Dallas at 35-1 is particularly juicy if Dak stays healthy and the defense feeds the offense extra opportunities. Parsons just left for Green Bay for a mind boggling $47m per year (I'm sure we'll discuss this soon!)

On the other end, the Browns at +375 for least points scored is a sharp pick. Deshaun Watson hasn’t looked elite, and the schedule is a gauntlet. The Jets and Dolphins are also in the mix, the former due to offensive uncertainty, the latter due to potential Tua-related turmoil.

Super Bowl Futures and Exact Matchups

If you’re feeling bold, futures markets for the Super Bowl offer some interesting angles. Ravens vs. 49ers at 70-1 is a popular play, and not just because it sounds cool. Both teams have elite rosters and top-tier coaching, the only thing holding them back could be health or bad playoff luck.

Other interesting combos: Bills vs. Niners at 40-1, and Texans vs. Eagles (a true galaxy-brain pick). Betting these exact matchups is always a long shot, but the payoff can be massive if you hit.