• The Eagles finish drives at an elite level: 71.0% red zone TD rate (100th percentile).

• The Raiders offense struggles to create chunk runs: 1.8% explosive run rate (6th percentile).

• Philly can hit explosive runs: 4.8% explosive run rate (77th percentile).

• Las Vegas protects poorly: 10.9% sack rate allowed, which can snowball if they fall behind.

• The Raiders defense has limited explosives this year (strong rates vs explosive runs and passes), but Crosby’s status can change how sticky that looks.

• Philly’s offense has been shaky on money downs: 35.4% third-down conversion (12th percentile), so early-down success matters a lot.

• Eagles -11.0 (-111): Philly has the higher ceiling, but this is still a big number if their third-down issues (35.4%) show up again.

• Total 38.0: The market is pricing a grind. Under 38.0 (-110) has the cheaper juice than the over, and QB uncertainty on the LV side supports that angle.

• Raiders team total under 13.0 (-127): LV is low in explosive offense, and a doubtful QB adds risk to long scoring drives.

• Eagles team total 25.5: If you trust Philly’s red zone edge (71.0% TD rate), Over 25.5 (-119) lines up with a “get-right” script.

• Barkley over 76.5 rush yards (-122): Philly’s run profile (4.8% explosive run rate) fits a game where they protect a lead and shorten the second half.

• Pickett under 178.5 pass yards (-120): This pairs with LV’s sack risk (10.9% sack rate allowed). It also fits a lower-total game.

Philadelphia is the better team, and the spot screams urgency. The Eagles can make this simple if they win early downs, stay out of long third downs, and cash in near the goal line. Their red zone TD rate (71.0%) gives them a built-in scoring advantage.

For the Raiders, the path is narrow. They need to slow the game, steal a turnover, and keep the Eagles from living in the red zone. The QB situation matters most. If Geno Smith sits, Las Vegas likely leans conservative, and that makes it harder to chase points.

From a betting view, the spread is big because the records are far apart. But the total is also very low at 38.0, which raises “backdoor” risk if the game gets sleepy late. That is why a few angles like Raiders team total under 13.0 (-127) or selective props can make more sense than forcing a side.

If you play anything here, respect the injury news. Crosby, Johnson, Dickerson, and Carter all swing matchups at the line of scrimmage, and that is where this game will be decided.