• Steelers force turnovers at a top-tier rate (86th percentile) and face a rookie QB prone to holding the ball.
• Cleveland ranks near the bottom in third-down conversion (34.3%), which could stall drives if the run game falters.
• Pittsburgh boasts elite red-zone efficiency, scoring TDs on 63.6% of trips (94th percentile).
• Steelers operate slowly, ranking in the 6th percentile in plays per minute, which often leads to fewer possessions.
• Cleveland’s pass rush is elite, ranking in the 97th percentile in sack rate. They’ll test Pittsburgh’s improving O-line.
• Browns’ offense struggles on long drives, converting just 65% (3rd percentile), limiting comeback potential.

• Steelers -3.0 (-115) offers value if T.J. Watt plays, given their defensive edge vs. a rookie QB.
• Under 34.5 points (-112) is in play with two slow-paced, run-heavy teams and several offensive injuries.
• Jaylen Warren Anytime TD (+180) is a strong dart; he’s part of a red-hot ground game that just ran for 230 yards.
• Shedeur Sanders Under 184.5 Passing Yards (-120) leans under against a disguised-pressure defense built to confuse rookies.
• Jerry Jeudy Under 27.5 Receiving Yards (-118) is worth a look with the Browns’ passing game expected to stay short and safe.

The Browns will rely on pride, home crowd energy, and Myles Garrett to keep this close. But their offensive flaws, especially on third down and in long drives, make it hard to trust them for four quarters.

The spread of Steelers -3.0 shows respect for Cleveland’s spoiler potential, but Pittsburgh’s run game and playoff focus give them the edge. The low total of 34.5 reflects the expected pace and style. If you're betting this one, consider props tied to the ground game and turnovers.

Expect a tough, physical matchup with postseason implications, and not many fireworks.