JAX @ CIN - Complete Statistical Matchup Analysis

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The Bengals host the Jaguars at Paycor Stadium on Sunday, Sept. 14 (1:00 PM ET). Cincinnati is a -3.5 (+100) home favourite with a total of 48.5 (-115/-115). Books expect a bounce-back from Joe Burrow and a live road test for Jacksonville.

Cincinnati’s offense needs a cleaner day. The Bengals sat at 50% on third down in early data, but protection leaked with an 11.5% sack rate allowed. That puts pressure on the ball to come out on time. Jacksonville’s rush hasn’t turned pressure into sacks yet, but it limits explosive passes (2.9%), which can cap Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins’ chunk plays.

Jacksonville’s angle is balance and ball security. The Jags skew under center (59.5%), which fits Travis Etienne Jr. and play-action. The defense has flashed a 4.9% takeaway rate and keeps explosive passes in front. Rookie Travis Hunter is the wild card. He caught passes and logged defensive snaps in Week 1, and coaches hint at more two-way work. That could help vs Chase/Higgins, but it can also trim his receiving routes.

Injuries add variance. The Jags list corners Tyson Campbell and Montaric Brown as Questionable, plus some shaky OL depth. The Bengals have tight ends Mike Gesicki (Q) and Drew Sample (Q), plus OL depth issues. If those pass-game pieces are limited, red-zone design may tilt to Chase/Higgins and quick game concepts.

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[SECTION: GAME_DETAILS>

HOME_TEAM: CIN
AWAY_TEAM: JAX
DATE: 14SEP25
VENUE: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Kick Off Time (ET): 01:00pm
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[SECTION: TEAM_FORM>

away_team_record: 1-0-0
away_team_ats: 1-0-0
away_team_ou: 0-1-0
home_team_record: 1-0-0
home_team_ats: 0-1-0
home_team_ou: 0-1-0
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[SECTION: TEAM_LAST10>

home_team_last10_record: 7-3-0
home_team_last10_ats: 6-4-0
home_team_last10_ou: 6-4-0
away_team_last10_record: 3-7-0
away_team_last10_ats: 5-5-0
away_team_last10_ou: 4-6-0
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[SECTION: TEAM_NEXT3>

away_team_upcoming: TBD, TBD, TBD
home_team_upcoming: TBD, TBD, TBD
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[SECTION: INJURIES>

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[SECTION: KEY_INSIGHTS>

• Anchor lines: Bengals -3.5 (+100); Total 48.5 (-115/-115).

• Explosives check: JAX allows 2.9% explosive passes (sample 34). That’s a strong “no freebies” number.

• Protection risk: CIN 11.5% sack rate allowed (sample 26). JAX’s pressure-to-sack is low (2.8%), so finishes are the question.

• Drive sustain: CIN 50.0% on third down (sample 14) vs JAX third-down stops 46.7%, edge to Bengals to extend series.

• Style clash: JAX 59.5% under center vs CIN 61.2% shotgun, two very different rhythms.

• Small-sample alerts: Some red-zone and explosive metrics carry limited snaps; expect swings.

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[SECTION: BETTING_INSIGHTS>

• Against the Spread: Bengals -3.5 (+100) third-down edge (50%) and home field help offset JAX’s explosive-pass defense. Even money reduces juice.

• Total: Under 48.5 (-115) JAX limits deep shots (2.9% explosive passes allowed) and leans under-center; that can slow scoring spikes.

• Moneyline: Bengals -185 pricey, but pairs with Under for a script where CIN sustains drives and JAX caps explosives.

• Player (CIN): Tee Higgins Over 5.5 Receptions (-118) heavy shotgun rate (61.2%) plus fewer deep shots points to volume underneath.

• Player (CIN): Ja’Marr Chase Anytime TD (-130) 66.7% red-zone TD rate (small sample) supports one end-zone target winning.

• Player (JAX): Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 Pass TDs (-105) CIN third-down stop 43.8% is bottom-tier so far; more red-zone bites.

• Fade angle: Ja’Marr Chase Under 6.5 Receptions (-112) JAX’s explosive-pass lid forces longer drives; volume can land 5–6.

• Injury/volatility notes: Gesicki (Q) could swing TE targets; price bakes in risk. Travis Hunter may see more defense; that supports his Under 51.5 receiving (-120) if you want an added lean.

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[SECTION: FINAL_SUMMARY>

This sets up as a methodical game. Cincinnati’s third-down edge points to time of possession and enough chain-moving throws. Jacksonville’s defense doesn’t give up easy explosives, which can push this under the mid-40s unless red-zone efficiency spikes.

Our lean is Bengals -3.5 (+100). Even money helps, and the matchup on third down matters. If you want less variance, the moneyline (-185) is a safer path but carries heavier juice.

For the total, we lean Under 48.5 (-115). JAX’s style (more under-center) and explosive-pass lid fit a 24–21 or 27–20 type script. Small samples mean swings are possible, so size your bets with that in mind.

Player angles: Higgins Over 5.5 receptions (-118) on volume, Chase Anytime TD (-130) for red-zone usage, and Lawrence Over 1.5 pass TDs (-105) if JAX strings drives. Avoid Tank Bigsby props; roster context conflicts with those listings. As always, check statuses on Q players close to kickoff and respect the juice.

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[SECTION: HOME_PAST_RESULTS>

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[SECTION: AWAY_PAST_RESULTS>

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[SECTION: HEAD_TO_HEAD>

HTH_Win_Loss: 2-3
HTH_ATS: 3-2-0
HTH_OU: 2-3-0

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[SECTION: QB>

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[SECTION: SCORING>

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[SECTION: REDZONE>

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[SECTION: PASSING>

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[SECTION: PASS_PROTECTION>

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[SECTION: RUSHING>

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[SECTION: SUCCESS_RATES>

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[SECTION: TURNOVERS>

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[SECTION: PENALTIES>

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[SECTION: FIELD_GOALS>

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[SECTION: PUNTING>

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[SECTION: RETURNS>

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[SECTION: POSSESSION_TEMPO>

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[SECTION: EXPLOSIVENESS>

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[SECTION: MISC_SPECIAL>

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