PIT @ CIN - Complete Statistical Matchup Analysis

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The Steelers visit the Bengals at Paycor Stadium on Thursday night. Pittsburgh sits in control early in the AFC North. Cincinnati needs a spark at 2–4 and turns to a veteran quarterback room to steady the ship.

This matchup leans on the trenches. Pittsburgh brings a top-tier rush group that converts pressure into sacks at a high rate. Cincinnati’s line has leaked at times and also comes in banged up. If Trey Hendrickson is limited or out, the Bengals lose a key counter on their side of the ball.

Downfield, the numbers say Pittsburgh can scheme explosives while Cincinnati’s defense has allowed too many of them. That fits the recent Rodgers-to-Metcalf rhythm. On the other side, the Bengals’ run game lacks pop, so volume should flow through Joe Flacco to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

Red zone could decide it. Cincinnati’s offense has finished well inside the 20 this season, but Pittsburgh’s defense has kept that area efficient and stiff. If the Steelers force field goals, the Bengals’ comeback path gets tight.

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[SECTION: GAME_DETAILS>

HOME_TEAM: CIN
AWAY_TEAM: PIT
DATE: 17OCT25
VENUE: Paycor Stadium
Kick Off Time (ET): 08:15pm
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[SECTION: TEAM_FORM>

away_team_record: 4-1-0
away_team_ats: 3-2-0
away_team_ou: 3-2-0
home_team_record: 2-4-0
home_team_ats: 2-4-0
home_team_ou: 4-2-0
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[SECTION: TEAM_LAST10>

home_team_last10_record: 6-4-0
home_team_last10_ats: 5-5-0
home_team_last10_ou: 6-4-0
away_team_last10_record: 4-6-0
away_team_last10_ats: 4-6-0
away_team_last10_ou: 4-6-0
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[SECTION: TEAM_NEXT3>

away_team_upcoming: TBD, TBD, TBD
home_team_upcoming: TBD, TBD, TBD
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[SECTION: INJURIES>

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[SECTION: KEY_INSIGHTS>

• Pass rush tilt to Pittsburgh: Steelers Sack Rate Generated 9.1% and Pressure-to-Sack 9.1% (both 95th pct) challenge a Bengals unit with 6.8% Sack Rate Allowed.

• Cincinnati’s deep leak: Bengals allow 10.6% explosive passes (3rd pct), while Pittsburgh’s scheme-based explosive rate is 6.2% (94th pct).

• Bengals’ run pop is missing: Explosive Run Rate sits at the 3rd percentile, pushing them toward shotgun (65%, 95th pct) and the pass.

• Red-zone standoff: Bengals’ offense 76.9% TD rate (97th pct) meets a Steelers defense that has allowed TDs on 50.0% of trips, a strong figure.

• Sustain vs get-off: Steelers Long Drive Efficiency 93.3% (84th pct) can stress a Bengals defense with a Third-Down Stop Rate in the 12th percentile.

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[SECTION: BETTING_INSIGHTS>

• Spread, Steelers -5.0 (-122): Pass-rush edge plus Cincinnati’s limited run explosiveness point to sustained Pittsburgh drives and late separation.

• Total, Under 43.5 (-123): Steelers’ rush disruption and Bengals’ run issues can cap sustained scoring; note that TD props carry variance.

• Steelers Team Total Over 24.0 (-116): Cincinnati has struggled against explosive passes, and Pittsburgh’s scheme rate is 94th percentile.

• Bengals Team Total Under 18.5 (-120): PIT pressure metrics and CIN’s lack of explosive runs create more stalled drives.

• DK Metcalf Over 56.5 receiving yards (-118): Bengals allow 10.6% explosive passes, among the league’s worst.

• Ja’Marr Chase anytime TD (+138): Bengals Big Play TD rate 28.6% (88th pct) keeps Chase live even if drives sputter.

Prices are from the lines above. As always, consider juice and volatility, especially on TD markets.

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[SECTION: FINAL_SUMMARY>

Pittsburgh brings the cleaner profile: a fierce pass rush, efficient long drives, and a scheme that can create explosives against a Cincinnati defense that has leaked down the field. If Hendrickson is limited, Rodgers should have enough time to work Metcalf and the ancillary targets.

Cincinnati still has a puncher’s chance through the air. The run game lacks juice, so volume should funnel to Flacco with Chase and Higgins featured. The Bengals have finished drives well in the red zone, but Pittsburgh’s defense has been tough there. One or two red-zone stops could swing the game.

From a betting lens, Steelers -5.0 is a fair anchor given the matchup edges. The total profiles a bit lower if Pittsburgh’s rush wins and the Bengals struggle to sustain on the ground, making Under 43.5 reasonable. Props that tie to the deep-leak matchup, like Metcalf receiving over, fit the data.

Bottom line: Pittsburgh’s pass rush and explosive-pass edge travel, while Cincinnati needs clean pockets and red-zone perfection to keep pace. Lean Steelers to cover, lean Under, and look to receiving overs that align with Cincinnati’s coverage splits.

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[SECTION: HOME_PAST_RESULTS>

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[SECTION: AWAY_PAST_RESULTS>

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[SECTION: HEAD_TO_HEAD>

HTH_Win_Loss: 3-2
HTH_ATS: 4-1-0
HTH_OU: 3-2-0

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[SECTION: QB>

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[SECTION: SCORING>

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[SECTION: REDZONE>

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[SECTION: PASSING>

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[SECTION: PASS_PROTECTION>

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[SECTION: RUSHING>

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[SECTION: SUCCESS_RATES>

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[SECTION: TURNOVERS>

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[SECTION: PENALTIES>

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[SECTION: FIELD_GOALS>

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[SECTION: PUNTING>

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[SECTION: RETURNS>

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[SECTION: POSSESSION_TEMPO>

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[SECTION: EXPLOSIVENESS>

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[SECTION: MISC_SPECIAL>

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