SEA @ ARI - Complete Statistical Matchup Analysis

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The Seahawks visit the Cardinals on Thursday night at State Farm Stadium to open Week 4. Seattle has owned this matchup lately, and they come in with a live deep-passing attack. Arizona faces a short week and a tough reset after losing captain James Conner for the season.

Sam Darnold has pushed the ball downfield. Seattle ranks near the top in explosive pass rate and has hit chunk gains all month. That meets a Cardinals defence that has been stingy on third down but is thin at corner, with Sean Murphy-Bunting out and other starters banged up.

For Arizona, the focus shifts to rookie Trey Benson and tight end Trey McBride. Kyler Murray will need to spread it around, likely out of shotgun, and keep the chains moving against a Seattle front that protects its own quarterback well. If the Cardinals fall behind, Murray’s volume grows, but their explosive pass numbers remain modest.

The total sits in the mid-40s and the spread hovers around a field goal. Red-zone trips and third-down swings should settle it. If Seattle lands a couple of deep shots, the Cardinals will be chasing on national TV.

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[SECTION: GAME_DETAILS>

HOME_TEAM: ARI
AWAY_TEAM: SEA
DATE: 26SEP25
VENUE: State Farm Stadium
Kick Off Time (ET): 08:15pm
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[SECTION: TEAM_FORM>

away_team_record: 2-1-0
away_team_ats: 2-1-0
away_team_ou: 2-1-0
home_team_record: 2-1-0
home_team_ats: 2-1-0
home_team_ou: 1-2-0
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[SECTION: TEAM_LAST10>

home_team_last10_record: 4-6-0
home_team_last10_ats: 6-4-0
home_team_last10_ou: 5-5-0
away_team_last10_record: 7-3-0
away_team_last10_ats: 5-5-0
away_team_last10_ou: 6-4-0
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[SECTION: TEAM_NEXT3>

away_team_upcoming: TBD, TBD, TBD
home_team_upcoming: TBD, TBD, TBD
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[SECTION: INJURIES>

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[SECTION: KEY_INSIGHTS>

• Seattle’s deep-pass threat is real: 10.5% explosive deep rate (100th percentile, sample 76). Arizona’s corner depth is stressed by injuries.

• Arizona’s defence wins on money downs: 69.2% third-down stop rate (97th percentile, sample 39). That can slow Seattle drives if explosives are contained.

• Seattle’s pass protection travels: 2.6% sack rate allowed (89th percentile, sample 78). Arizona’s pass-rush finish rate is low at 2.7% (12th percentile, sample 146).

• Cardinals’ offence is more shotgun than under-centre (61.1%, 88th percentile), which fits Murray’s rhythm but hasn’t produced many explosives (5.3% explosive pass rate; 19th percentile).

• Conner’s IR shifts Arizona’s identity. Expect more targets for Benson and McBride and a tilt toward quick game rather than power runs.

• Small-sample flags: ARI fourth-down aggression and conversion look elite but are based on 1–3 tries; volatility is high.

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[SECTION: BETTING_INSIGHTS>

• Anchor spread: Seahawks -3.5 at +138 (SBK). Plus-money price if you trust Seattle’s explosive passing to clear the hook.

• Anchor total: 43.5 (Over -110, Under -118). If ARI’s third-down defence holds and SEA settles for kicks, the Under at -118 is live.

• Team totals: Seahawks over 21.5 (-130 to -116 range; SBK lists Over -116) ties to SEA red-zone TD rate 63.6% (67th pct) and deep-shot profile.

• Kenneth Walker anytime TD (-125, Ladbrokes): matches SEA red-zone strength vs ARI red-zone TDs allowed 41.7% (84th pct).

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 79.5 yards (-122, SBK): leverages Seattle’s 11.8% explosive pass rate (94th pct) against a short-handed ARI secondary.

• Trey McBride over 60.5 yards (-118, SBK): Zay Jones out funnels targets; SEA defence allows 8.9% explosive passes (16th pct), creating seam chances. Prices carry juice; size stakes accordingly.

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[SECTION: FINAL_SUMMARY>

Seattle brings a clear identity into Thursday night: protect the quarterback and hunt explosives. If Darnold gets time, the Seahawks’ vertical game can tilt field position and set up Walker in the red zone.

Arizona’s path is tighter. The Cardinals likely lean into quick passes and tempo from shotgun, use McBride as a chain mover, and mix Benson in screens and check-downs. Their defence needs to keep winning on third down and force Seattle to settle for field goals.

Injuries matter. With Conner out and the corner group thin, Arizona must play clean to stay even. Seattle has their own questionables, but their protection numbers and deep-ball profile travel well.

Bottom line: one or two chunk plays can decide this spread. If the Cardinals limit explosives and keep third downs on schedule, they can drag the game toward the mid-40s and make it a coin flip late. If not, Seattle’s plus-money -3.5 ticket becomes very live, while player markets tied to the Seahawks’ passing ceiling gain appeal. As always, respect the juice and the variance.

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[SECTION: HOME_PAST_RESULTS>

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[SECTION: AWAY_PAST_RESULTS>

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[SECTION: HEAD_TO_HEAD>

HTH_Win_Loss: 5-0
HTH_ATS: 4-1-0
HTH_OU: 2-3-0

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[SECTION: QB>

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[SECTION: SCORING>

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[SECTION: REDZONE>

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[SECTION: PASSING>

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[SECTION: PASS_PROTECTION>

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[SECTION: RUSHING>

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[SECTION: SUCCESS_RATES>

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[SECTION: TURNOVERS>

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[SECTION: PENALTIES>

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[SECTION: FIELD_GOALS>

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[SECTION: PUNTING>

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[SECTION: RETURNS>

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[SECTION: POSSESSION_TEMPO>

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[SECTION: EXPLOSIVENESS>

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[SECTION: MISC_SPECIAL>

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