Seahawks-Patriots: Line Moves, Injuries, MVP Longshots

Final Whistle: Super Bowl Bets, Injuries, and MVP Longshots

As the 2025 NFL season takes its last breath, the Even Money Podcast crew has one final push for bettors looking to cash in on Super Bowl Sunday. With the Seattle Seahawks taking on the New England Patriots, the betting action is heating up, though the line movement has been more of a slow simmer than a boiling pot. For the sharp bettors and the casual fans alike, here’s what you need to know before kickoff.

Line Movement: A Whole Lot of Meh

Looking for dramatic swings in the Super Bowl line? Keep looking. The Seahawks are holding steady as 4.5-point favorites, with the total floating around 45.5. There’s been a whisper of inflation as some books have edged the line toward 5, indicating some heavy hitters are backing Seattle. But if you're leaning New England, patience might be your best friend. Wait it out and you could catch a +5 or better before kickoff.

As for the total, if you’re an “over” lover, get your bets in early. The public floods the market with overs late, and the books adjust. If you like unders, stay cool and wait until the last minute, when the number is likely at its highest and your betting value peaks.

Prop Talk: Timing Is Everything

The Super Bowl is a prop bettor’s paradise, but strategy is key. Public bettors tend to hammer overs on player props, so if you see a number you like, grab it early before the tidal wave pushes it higher. If you're eyeing unders, particularly on prominent names, waiting for the pre-game betting frenzy might get you a better number.

One prop that’s already moved is Kenneth Walker’s rushing total. Initially set around 78 yards, it’s slipped to an average of 74. That’s notable, especially since it's rare to see early money on an under for a key offensive player. The reason? New England’s run defense has been a buzzsaw in the back half of the season, and bettors are taking notice.

Injury Intel: Chao Knows

Dr. David Chao, the go-to guy for injury insights, dropped some key nuggets this week. Drake May, New England’s rookie phenom QB, is dealing with what appears to be a mild AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder. He’s going to play, no doubt, but the question is whether he can still deliver those deep shots with accuracy. The Patriots led the league in yards per attempt, if May can’t uncork it, that stat might not matter much on Sunday.

Keep an eye on New England linebacker Robert Spillane as well. He’s battling an ankle injury and is key to slowing down Seattle’s run game. His effectiveness in coverage could be the difference between a few short gains and a Kenneth Walker highlight reel. Also, veteran edge rusher Harold Landry is a big question mark with a mysterious knee issue. If he suits up, don’t expect him at full power.

Matchup Madness: Trench Warfare and Trickery

The battle in the trenches could define this game. Seattle has leaned heavily on pull lead plays behind Gray Zabel, and Kenneth Walker has been slicing defenses with a strong 5.0 yards per carry. But New England’s defensive front, led by Milton Williams and Christian Barmore, has been a brick wall, especially against the run.

If Seattle’s young interior line can’t hold up, Sam Darnold could be running for his life. On the flip side, New England’s offense needs some creativity. Their run game has been stale in the playoffs, and Josh McDaniels might have to dig deep into his playbook. Think spread formations, trick plays, and a few surprises to catch Seattle’s defense off guard.

Drake May needs to make gutsy throws against a Seattle defense that thrives in zone coverage. He’ll have to thread the needle and take inspiration from QBs like Matthew Stafford, who have had success against the Seahawks with precision and timing. If May can make three or four big-time throws, the Patriots have a shot.

Bets, Props, and MVP Dart Throws

The final bets are in. Ross is backing the Patriots +4.5 and the under 45.5, each for one unit. Prop-wise, he’s taking:

• Drake May over 6.5 rush attempts
• Rhamondre Stevenson over 24.5 first-half rushing yards
• Cooper Kupp over 32.5 receiving yards
• Rashid Shaheed over 4.5 rushing yards

There’s also a “Tuck Spreads” parlay featuring both quarterbacks going under in the first quarter and Seattle’s team total under in the first half. Steve Fesick added a three-team parlay along similar lines, banking on the slow-start theory holding true one more time.

For those chasing longshots, MVP bets are worth a peek. Jackson Smith-Njigba is a popular pick at +550 to +600, but the real buzz is around Rashid Shaheed at +4500. He’s got return game upside and home-run potential. All it takes is one electric play to swing the vote, just ask Desmond Howard.

Takeaways

• Line Watch: Seattle is a slight favorite, but New England money could push it to +5 or better, stay patient if you like the Pats.
• Prop Strategy: Bet overs early, unders late. The public loves overs, so be smart with your timing.
• Injury Edge: Drake May will play, but his shoulder could limit deep throws. Spillane’s ankle and Landry’s knee are also concerns.
• Trench Battle: Seattle’s run game vs. New England’s defensive front is a heavyweight matchup that could decide the game.
• MVP Fun: Don’t sleep on Shaheed as a longshot MVP pick. Special teams magic could steal the spotlight.

Get your bets in, grab your snacks, and buckle up. The last ride of the NFL season is here, and it could be a wild one.