SF @ NO - Complete Statistical Matchup Analysis

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The 49ers visit the Caesars Superdome on Sunday, 14 September (1:00 PM ET) for a tricky Week 2 test against the Saints. The number tells the story: San Francisco sits around a field goal favourite, with a total near 41. That signals a tight, lower-scoring game.

San Francisco’s passing edge remains their shot plays. Even with injuries, they rank well for explosive passes (14.7% rate; 88th percentile, 34-play sample). New Orleans answers with a real pass-rush pulse. The Saints sit near the top for sack rate generated (14.7%) and pressure-to-sack conversion (14.7%), both in the 97th percentile on a 34-snap sample. That trench battle will swing drives.

Injuries shape the handicap. The 49ers are without George Kittle (IR) and Brandon Aiyuk (Out); several wideouts are Questionable. Brock Purdy and Mac Jones both carry a Q tag, so plan for volatility at quarterback. The Saints are thin at tight end (Taysom Hill, Foster Moreau both Out) and have multiple tackles either on IR or Questionable, which could stress protection and the run game.

Money downs and field position may decide it. San Francisco’s defence has stopped 70% of third downs so far (84th percentile, small sample), while New Orleans has converted just 35.7%. If that holds, the 49ers can tilt possession and keep the Saints’ total in check.

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[SECTION: GAME_DETAILS>

HOME_TEAM: NO
AWAY_TEAM: SF
DATE: 14SEP25
VENUE: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Kick Off Time (ET): 01:00pm
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[SECTION: TEAM_FORM>

away_team_record: 1-0-0
away_team_ats: 1-0-0
away_team_ou: 0-1-0
home_team_record: 0-1-0
home_team_ats: 0-1-0
home_team_ou: 0-1-0
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[SECTION: TEAM_LAST10>

home_team_last10_record: 3-7-0
home_team_last10_ats: 2-8-0
home_team_last10_ou: 3-7-0
away_team_last10_record: 3-7-0
away_team_last10_ats: 3-7-0
away_team_last10_ou: 5-4-1
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[SECTION: TEAM_NEXT3>

away_team_upcoming: TBD, TBD, TBD
home_team_upcoming: TBD, TBD, TBD
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[SECTION: INJURIES>

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[SECTION: KEY_INSIGHTS>

• Anchor line: 49ers -3.5 (-103) and total 41.0 (O -114 / U -122).

• SF explosive pass game: 14.7% explosive pass rate (88th pct; 34-play sample).

• NO pass rush pops: 14.7% sack rate and 14.7% pressure-to-sack conversion (both 97th pct; 34-snap sample).

• SF third-down D: 70% stop rate (84th pct; 10 opp tries, small sample) vs NO offence 35.7% conversions (30th pct).

• Saints pace lever: no-huddle usage 30.4% (97th pct; 92-play sample) could lift target volume for WRs/RB.

• Run-D watch: NO has allowed 7.4% explosive runs (19th pct; 27-play sample).

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[SECTION: BETTING_INSIGHTS>

• Spread decision point: If you like the 49ers, -3.5 at (-103) is cheaper juice than -3 at (-122), but you pay the hook. If you prefer the key number, lay -3 at a higher price. 

• Total lean: Under 41.0 (-122) fits a game with QB uncertainty and modest red-zone TD rates (SF 40.0%, NO 25.0%; both small samples).

• Saints team total: Under 18.5 (-116) aligns with SF’s 70% third-down stop rate and the Saints’ injuries up front. 

• First-quarter pace check: Under 7.5 (-145) mirrors the full-game Under lean in a scripted start. 

• Player prop: Spencer Rattler under 206.5 passing yards (-119) Saints’ explosive pass rate sits at just 2.1% (6th pct), while SF has been strong on third downs. 

• Player prop: Christian McCaffrey over 83.5 rushing yards (-120) Saints’ D has allowed a 7.4% explosive run rate (19th pct). 

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[SECTION: FINAL_SUMMARY>

This looks like a field-position game. San Francisco’s ability to hit explosives meets a Saints rush that can finish plays. If the 49ers stay on schedule and win third downs, their defence can keep New Orleans in the teens.

Given the injuries, San Francisco may lean on the ground. That supports a McCaffrey yards Over more than splashy receiving props for SF’s banged-up pass-catchers. On the other side, New Orleans’ no-huddle tendency boosts reception volume for Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara, but sustained drives could still be tough if protection wobbles.

Our card tilts conservative: slight edge to 49ers at the current number, a lean to Under 41.0, and Saints team total Under 18.5. Props we like most: Rattler under 206.5 passing yards and McCaffrey over 83.5 rushing yards at the listed SBK prices. Manage stake size; several team metrics come from small early-season samples, and both starting-QB statuses are still Questionable.

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[SECTION: HOME_PAST_RESULTS>

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[SECTION: AWAY_PAST_RESULTS>

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[SECTION: HEAD_TO_HEAD>

HTH_Win_Loss: 3-2
HTH_ATS: 3-2-0
HTH_OU: 3-2-0

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[SECTION: QB>

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[SECTION: SCORING>

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[SECTION: REDZONE>

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[SECTION: PASSING>

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[SECTION: PASS_PROTECTION>

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[SECTION: RUSHING>

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[SECTION: SUCCESS_RATES>

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[SECTION: TURNOVERS>

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[SECTION: PENALTIES>

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[SECTION: FIELD_GOALS>

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[SECTION: PUNTING>

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[SECTION: RETURNS>

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[SECTION: POSSESSION_TEMPO>

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[SECTION: EXPLOSIVENESS>

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[SECTION: MISC_SPECIAL>

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