TB @ HOU - Complete Statistical Matchup Analysis

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Tampa Bay visits Houston on Monday, 15 September, at NRG Stadium. The market sits near Texans -3 with a total tiered up to 48.5. It’s a clash of styles: the Buccaneers lean under centre and will mix tempo, while the Texans live in shotgun and want to spread you out.

Matchups point to the air. Houston’s defence has sprung leaks against chunk throws, allowing 19.4% explosive passes (sample 31). That’s a problem with Mike Evans and rookie Emeka Egbuka drawing targets. Tampa Bay’s own explosive-pass profile is thin, but when they hit, they’ve cashed them for touchdowns (66.7% big-play TD rate; tiny sample of 3).

Up front, Houston’s protection is a concern. The Texans have a 10.3% sack rate allowed (sample 29), and their centre and a starting guard are listed as Questionable. Tampa Bay’s finish rate from pressure to sacks has been low so far (2.3%), but this is the kind of spot where one or two drive-killing sacks swing a half.

Injuries shape the edges. Tampa Bay is without Chris Godwin and tackle Tristan Wirfs, which caps some passing ceiling and stresses protection. Houston loses Tank Dell and could be without key help inside. Red-zone trends split too: Tampa Bay has finished its lone trip with a touchdown (small sample), while Houston’s red-zone efficiency lags.

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[SECTION: GAME_DETAILS>

HOME_TEAM: HOU
AWAY_TEAM: TB
DATE: 15SEP25
VENUE: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Kick Off Time (ET): 07:00pm
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[SECTION: TEAM_FORM>

away_team_record: 1-0-0
away_team_ats: 1-0-0
away_team_ou: 0-1-0
home_team_record: 0-1-0
home_team_ats: 0-1-0
home_team_ou: 0-1-0
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[SECTION: TEAM_LAST10>

home_team_last10_record: 5-5-0
home_team_last10_ats: 6-4-0
home_team_last10_ou: 5-5-0
away_team_last10_record: 7-3-0
away_team_last10_ats: 6-3-1
away_team_last10_ou: 5-5-0
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[SECTION: TEAM_NEXT3>

away_team_upcoming: TBD, TBD, TBD
home_team_upcoming: TBD, TBD, TBD
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[SECTION: INJURIES>

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[SECTION: KEY_INSIGHTS>

• Explosives vs coverage: Houston has allowed a high rate of explosive passes (19.4%, sample 31), creating shot chances for Evans/Egbuka even if Tampa Bay’s overall explosive-pass rate is low.

• Protection check: Texans’ sack rate allowed (10.3%) plus C/G injuries (both Questionable) meet a Bucs rush that hasn’t finished well (2.3% pressure-to-sack). Whichever side moves here may decide field position.

• Money downs: Houston’s offence has struggled on third down (22.2%), while Tampa Bay’s defence is above average in stops (60.0%).

• Run explosives muted: Both teams grade well at limiting explosive runs (80th-percentile range), nudging this toward a pass-centric script.

• Usage and style: Tampa Bay goes under centre often (58.3%) and uses no-huddle at a notable clip (11.1%), a mix that can stress Houston’s substitutions.

• Red zone contrast: Tampa Bay’s early red-zone TD rate is perfect (small sample), while Houston’s offensive red-zone profile lags; Texans’ WR injuries add volatility near the goal line.

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[SECTION: BETTING_INSIGHTS>

• Spread zone: Market anchors at Texans -3.0 (-110). If you want a shorter number, -2.5 is (-123); if you want plus money, -3.5 returns (+124).

• Total ladder: The high anchor is 48.5 (Over +146 / Under -233). Mid-tier options include 45.5 (Over +104 / Under -167) and 44.5 (Over -102 / Under -147), reflecting under shading.

• Moneyline: Texans (-139) vs Buccaneers (+124) lines up with the -3 spread.

• Anytime TD angles: Emeka Egbuka (+168) and Mike Evans (+148) fit the HOU explosive-pass leak (19.4% allowed). TDs are high variance; prices reflect that.

• Receiver yardage: Nico Collins over 76.5 yards (-119) aligns with Houston’s deep-shot profile (7.1% deep explosive rate; 72nd pct).

• QB touchdown props: Baker Mayfield over 1.5 pass TDs (+112) correlates with Tampa Bay’s red-zone finish (small sample) and Houston’s explosive-pass defence.

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[SECTION: FINAL_SUMMARY>

The market respects Houston at home, holding -3 with under lean across the total ladder. The cleanest on-field hinge is Texans’ protection versus Tampa Bay’s ability to convert pressure into actual sacks. If the Bucs finish, Houston’s already shaky third-down rate becomes a bigger issue.

Tampa Bay’s passing room comes from explosives. Houston has allowed chunk plays, and Evans/Egbuka are live to punish single coverage. Tampa Bay’s own explosive-pass profile is thin overall, so success likely comes from a few high-leverage shots rather than steady chunk gains.

In the end, small edges stack: Texans’ home field, Tampa Bay’s O-line loss (Wirfs), and Houston’s wideout health (Dell out, Kirk Q) push this into a tight, field-position game that flips on sacks and red-zone execution. If you bet it, price-shop the -3 versus -2.5, and understand the total is under-weighted at the higher rungs, with plus-money over tickets requiring big plays to land.

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[SECTION: HOME_PAST_RESULTS>

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[SECTION: AWAY_PAST_RESULTS>

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[SECTION: HEAD_TO_HEAD>

HTH_Win_Loss: 0-5
HTH_ATS: 1-3-1
HTH_OU: 3-2-0

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[SECTION: QB>

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[SECTION: SCORING>

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[SECTION: REDZONE>

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[SECTION: PASSING>

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[SECTION: PASS_PROTECTION>

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[SECTION: RUSHING>

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[SECTION: SUCCESS_RATES>

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[SECTION: TURNOVERS>

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[SECTION: PENALTIES>

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[SECTION: FIELD_GOALS>

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[SECTION: PUNTING>

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[SECTION: RETURNS>

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[SECTION: POSSESSION_TEMPO>

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[SECTION: EXPLOSIVENESS>

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[SECTION: MISC_SPECIAL>

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