• Tampa can create chunk gains. Bucs’ explosive pass rate is 8.4% (73rd percentile; sample 203), boosted by scheme explosives 5.8% (88th).

• Detroit’s pass rush is real. Lions sit 8.3% in sack rate generated and pressure-to-sack conversion (both 84th), a solid test for Tampa’s injured OL.

• Tampa’s defense gives up explosives. Bucs allow explosive passes at 8.5% (20th), which fits Detroit’s 5.1% scheme-driven explosives (84th).

• Short yardage favors Detroit’s defense. Lions stop 58.8% of third-and-short tries (97th), a drive-killer trait.

• Finishing drives is mixed. Tampa’s long-drive efficiency is 94.4% (91st), but red-zone TD rate sits at 47.4% (31st). Detroit’s defense also allows TDs in the red zone 66.7% (20th).

• Small-sample caution. Big-play touchdown rate uses 27 plays for TB and 25 for DET, so TD conversion on explosives is volatile week to week.

• Anchor spread: Lions -5.5 (-115). Detroit’s pass rush and short-yard stops match well with Tampa’s injury list, but it’s still within one score.

• Anchor total: 53.0 (Over -106 / Under -125). Bucs create explosives, and both defenses allow red-zone TDs at 66.7% (DET D) and 68.8% (TB D). Juice leans to the Under side at this number.

• Baker Mayfield Over 243.5 passing yds (-120). Tampa’s 8.4% explosive pass rate faces a thin Lions secondary. Volatile with Mayfield and Evans Questionable.

• Jared Goff Over 253.5 passing yds (-119). TB allows explosive passes 8.5%; Detroit’s scheme explosives sit 5.1%. Monitor St. Brown’s status.

• Rachaad White Over 22.5 receiving yds (-115). If pressure rises, checkdowns rise. Volatile: White Questionable.

• David Montgomery Anytime TD (-149). TB’s defense allows TDs on 68.8% of red-zone trips, which boosts Detroit’s goal-line backs. Price has real juice.

For all Questionable tags, consider smaller stakes or wait for inactives. Prices can move hard near kickoff.

Tampa Bay brings a punchy pass game, even with injuries. The Bucs scheme up explosives and can hit deep if the line holds. Detroit’s pass rush and third-and-short defense can flip that script, especially at home.

The Lions’ secondary depth is a concern, which opens the door for Mayfield if he plays. Detroit can answer through the air too. Tampa has allowed chunk throws, and the Lions rate high in quick-strike drives.

Our anchors reflect the market: Lions -5.5 (-115) and Total 53.0 with a lean toward the Under -125 at this number because of juice and drive-finishing variance. Prop leans that fit the matchup: Mayfield Over 243.5 (-120), Goff Over 253.5 (-119), White Over 22.5 receiving (-115), and Montgomery Anytime TD (-149). Manage risk around all Questionable players and scale units to your tolerance.