• Saints struggle to create chunk passes: Their 4.5% explosive pass rate ranks in the 3rd percentile, which limits quick scoring.

• Bucs thrive at the goal line on defense: 61.9% goal-line stuff rate (81st percentile) can stall Saints’ red-zone trips, especially with McCoy out.

• Tampa’s run game is quietly explosive: 5.2% explosive run rate (73rd percentile) matches up with a Saints defense that allows explosive runs at 5.1%.

• Third-and-long split favors TB: Bucs convert 28.3% on 3rd-and-7+, while the Saints convert just 12.8% (3rd percentile).

• Protection vs pressure should be manageable: NO allows a 4.8% sack rate (67th pct) and TB generates sacks at 7.3% (69th pct). If Young sits or is limited, Mayfield gains time.

• Pace note: NO uses no-huddle on 19.4% of snaps (97th pct), but lack of explosives may still cap total yards.

• Spread angle: Market sits at TB -4.5 (-112); injuries at WR for TB and at C/RB/WR for NO help explain why it isn’t higher.

• Total (anchor): Under 47.5 (-130) is juiced but supported by NO’s low explosive pass rate (4.5%) and TB’s strong goal-line defense.

• Saints team total: Under 20.5 (-128) aligns with McCoy on IR and NO’s 12.8% third-and-long conversion.

• Baker Mayfield passing: Under 246.5 (-120) with WR depth issues and a Saints defense that limits explosive passes (5.7% allowed).

• Cade Otton usage: Over 37.5 receiving yards (-116) fits a TE-heavy plan with Evans/Godwin out.

• Rachaad White outlet work: Over 20.5 receiving yards (-119) if active; price reflects modest edge. Note Questionable tag adds volatility.

The Buccaneers and Saints meet in New Orleans with Tampa favored by 4.5. On paper, Tampa has the cleaner path: better red-zone defense, a run game that can pop, and a quarterback who can manage downs even with a thin receiver room.

New Orleans needs clean pockets and efficient early downs to avoid third-and-long. That has not been their profile. With Erik McCoy out, sustaining drives gets tougher, and the Saints’ limited explosive pass rate makes quick scores unlikely.

Totals players should keep an eye on injuries to Egbuka, Olave, and Kamara. If even one sits or is limited, it further leans toward a tighter, lower-scoring script.

Bottom line: Tampa’s defense and situational edges travel well. If Mayfield stays on schedule and the Bucs finish a couple drives, they’re positioned to control this game at the current number and keep the total under the mid-40s.