NFLGame PreviewsTEN VS HOU Preview Week4 season 28-SEP-2025

Game Preview of Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans. Week 4 of 2025 NFL Season

TEN logo

TEN

0-3-0
@
28SEP25
01:00pm
HOU logo

HOU

0-3-0
NRG Stadium

Game Preview

The Tennessee Titans visit the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on Sunday, Sept. 28, at 1:00 PM ET. It is an AFC South game with urgency. Both sides need a spark.

 

Houston leans on defense up front. The Texans rush the passer well and convert pressure to sacks at a strong rate. Their offense has shown flashes on shot plays, but third downs have been tough so far.

 

Tennessee’s defense limits big pass plays. That can force Houston into shorter throws and long drives. The Titans offense is still searching. Injuries on the line and a banged-up rookie quarterback have slowed them.

 

Availability will shape the plan. For Houston, WR Nico Collins is Questionable, and several other pass catchers are out. CB Derek Stingley Jr. is also Questionable. For Tennessee, QB Cam Ward is Questionable, and the offensive line has key Questionable tags. Expect variance if late news breaks.

Current Season Form

TEN logo

TEN

Away
Record:0-3-0
ATS:1-2-0
O/U:2-1-0
HOU logo

HOU

Home
Record:0-3-0
ATS:0-3-0
O/U:0-3-0

Head-to-Head Summary

Record:
1-4Winner logo
ATS:1-4-0
O/U:2-3-0

Past Results

DateOpponentResultATSO/U
2025-09-21@ JAXL 10-17L 1.5u43.5
2025-09-15vs TBL 19-20W +2.5u42.5
2025-09-07@ LARL 9-14L 3.5u43.5
2025-01-18@ KCL 14-23L 9.5u41.5
2025-01-11vs LACW 32-12W +-3.0o41.5
2025-01-05@ TENW 23-14W +2.5o36.5
2024-12-25vs BALL 2-31L -5.5u46.5
2024-12-21@ KCL 19-27L 3.5o42.5
2024-12-15vs MIAW 20-12W +2.5u46.5
2024-12-01@ JAXW 23-20W +-3.5u44.5

Key Insights

 

  • Texans rush vs Titans protection: Houston’s defense owns a 7.8% sack rate (75th percentile), while Tennessee’s offense has allowed sacks on 11.6% of dropbacks (6th). That favors Houston in obvious pass spots.

  • Explosive pass filter: Tennessee’s defense allows only 4.8% explosive passes (84th). That can mute Houston’s 7.6% explosive pass rate (58th) and force the Texans to stack first downs.

  • Drive stability is shaky: Houston converts just 24.2% on third down (3rd). Tennessee is also below average at 32.6% (16th). Sustained marches may be rare.

  • Run games lack pop: HOU explosive run rate is 1.5% (19th); TEN is 1.4% (14th). Without chunk runs, both offenses may face long fields.

  • Secondary swing spot: Houston’s defense has allowed 8.8% explosive passes (19th). If Derek Stingley Jr. sits, windows get bigger. But Tennessee’s deep pass rate is low (1.8%, 11th), so the Titans must win with timing routes.

  • Sample-size caution: Several red-zone metrics are small or N/A early. Any edge near the goal line carries extra variance.

 

Betting Insights

 

  • Anchor spread: Texans -7.0 (-122). Extra juice on the favorite tightens margin for error at a key number.

  • Anchor total: 40.0 (Over +110, Under -125). Market leans Under, which fits two weak third-down offenses.

  • Moneyline: Texans -400 / Titans +300. Price implies Houston control but keeps backdoor paths open.

  • Team totals: Texans 23.0 (Over -125, Under -114); Titans 14.5 (Over -116, Under -123). The split points to a medium-low script.

  • Cam Ward under 191.5 pass yards (-119): Houston’s 7.8% sack rate meets Tennessee’s 11.6% sack rate allowed. Ward is Questionable, adding downside risk.

  • Nick Chubb anytime TD (+138): Texans show a high big-play TD rate so far (small sample). In a low total game, one crease can pay this number.

  • Dalton Schultz over 31.5 yards (-119): Titans are stingy against deep shots, which can push targets to the tight end underneath.

  • Tony Pollard under 63.5 rush yards (-119): Titans’ run game has lacked explosives (1.4%). Houston is average at limiting big runs, which may still cap ceiling.

  • Nico Collins anytime TD (+108): If active, he’s the downfield lever for Houston’s 7.6% explosive pass rate. Volatility note: he is Questionable.

 

Final Summary

This looks like a grind. Houston’s pass rush is the cleanest edge on the board. Tennessee’s protection has leaked, and that can tilt the game toward the Texans, especially at home.

Explosives may decide it. The Titans keep a lid on deep balls, so Houston might need patience and third-down wins. That is not a team strength yet. If Nico Collins plays, the Texans keep a vertical outlet. If he sits, expect even more underneath throws to backs and tight ends.

On the other side, Tennessee must manage negative plays. If Cam Ward and the line are limited, the Titans will need quick game, screens, and field position. Houston’s secondary has allowed chunk gains, but Tennessee’s deep rate is low. They will have to stack completions.

Prices reflect a low-scoring game with Houston control. The spread is heavy, and several props carry real juice. Treat Questionable tags as risk flags and be ready to pass if late news moves the numbers.

Statistical Battle Boards

Viewing: HOU Offense vs TEN Defense
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Total Points38#3294#3TEN advantage
Total Points Per Game12.7#3231.3#30TEN advantage
Total Touchdowns3#3110#26TEN advantage
Passing Touchdowns2#304#13TEN advantage
Rushing Touchdowns1#246#31HOU advantage
Other Touchdowns0#260#2TEN advantage
Total Kicking Points20#2228#6TEN advantage
Total Two Point Conversions0#290#31HOU advantage
Kick Extra Points2#3210#2TEN advantage
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Net Passing Yards517#26684#11TEN advantage
Net Passing Yards Per Game172#26228#11TEN advantage
Passer Rating76.9#2688.9#18TEN advantage
Passing Attempts89#2398#19TEN advantage
Completions57#2566#10TEN advantage
Completion Percentage64#2067.3#23HOU advantage
Passing 1st downs22#3031#13TEN advantage
Passing 1st Down %51.2#2448.4#5TEN advantage
Longest Pass50#1540#24HOU advantage
Passing Fumbles Lost2#31#6HOU advantage
Receiving Targets86#2594#15TEN advantage
Receptions57#2566#23TEN advantage
Receiving Yards After Catch288#22346#23HOU advantage
YAC Average5.1#155.2#24HOU advantage
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Rushing Yards285#23437#29HOU advantage
Rushing Yards Per Game95#23146#4TEN advantage
Rushing Attempts65#2983#21TEN advantage
Yards Per Rush Attempt4.4#165.3#4TEN advantage
Rushing 1st downs13#3022#22TEN advantage
20+ Yard Rushing Plays1#143#6TEN advantage
Long Rushing25#1650#6TEN advantage
Rushing Fumbles1#143#6TEN advantage
Rushing Fumbles Lost0#240#27HOU advantage