• Protection gap: Indianapolis allows sacks on just 2.7% of dropbacks (95th percentile). Tennessee allows them on 9.6% (9th percentile).

• Money-down split: Colts convert 46.8% on third down (91st percentile). Titans convert 30.4% (3rd percentile).

• Explosive rush defense vs star back: Titans’ defense gives up explosive runs only 2.6% of the time (75th percentile). Colts produce explosive rushes at 5.1% (69th).

• Passing explosives: Indy’s explosive pass rate is 8.7% (78th). Tennessee’s defense vs explosive passes sits mid-tier at 7.2% (64th).

• Drive quality: Colts show 100% long-drive efficiency (98th percentile, small sample of 19), pointing to sustained scoring chances.

• Availability watch: TEN Cam Ward (Q), Calvin Ridley (Q), Tyjae Spears (Q); IND Kenny Moore II (Q), several DL Questionable. Jeffery Simmons (Q) status is key to the Titans’ run front.

• Spread: Colts -14.5 (–118). Protection and third-down edges lean Indy in a scripted, home-favorite game. Big number means variance if Titans hit a couple explosives.

• Total: Over 48.0 (–110). Colts’ explosive pass rate 8.7% plus strong third-down rate point to steady scoring; monitor Titans injuries.

• Colts team total 31.0 Over (–119). Indy sustains long drives (small sample) and finishes well enough in the red zone (62.9% TD rate).

• Titans team total 16.0 Under (–125). Third-down woes (30.4%) and sack rate allowed 9.6% threaten drive killers.

• Player prop – Jonathan Taylor Over 102.5 rushing (–120). Volume behind elite pass protection and efficient drives.

• Player prop – Daniel Jones Over 233.5 passing (–119). Third-down engine (46.8%) supports attempts and yards.

The handicap is straightforward. The Colts block, stay on schedule, and finish drives. The Titans struggle to protect and to convert third downs. That is a tough mix on the road in a controlled environment.

Tennessee can hang if two things happen: Jeffery Simmons plays near full strength and the offense steals a few explosives or short fields. If the Questionable tags break well for Indy’s defense and poorly for Tennessee’s offense, the gap widens.

From a numbers view, Colts -14.5 (–118) fits the mismatch. The Over 48.0 (–110) makes sense if the Colts push past 30 and the Titans clear a modest bar. Team totals line up with that script.

As always, price matters. Several plays carry juice. Scale stake sizes, respect injury volatility, and avoid chasing if late news flips a matchup edge.