• Dallas can stretch the field. The Cowboys’ deep-pass explosive rate is 5.5% (81st percentile; sample 237), and they finish some of those into scores.

• Washington’s rushing lane is real. Dallas allows explosive runs 7.1% (3rd percentile; sample 182), a weakness Washington can target if its backfield is healthy.

• Dak should have time. Dallas allows sacks on only 2.9% of dropbacks (91st percentile; sample 241), which supports intermediate and deep concepts.

• Money downs split. Dallas converts 44.4% on third down (81st) but its defense stops third downs only 46.8% of the time (3rd percentile; sample 79). That points to extended drives.

• Turnover ceiling is low for DAL’s defense. Turnover generation rate is 1.0% (17th percentile; sample 400), which can keep Washington on schedule.

• Small-sample flag. Dallas big-play TD rate 20.0% comes from just 25 big plays.

• Anchor spread: Commanders -3.0 (+106). Plus money at the key number, backed by Dallas’ third-down stop rate of 46.8% on defense. Variance rises if Washington’s Q-tag stars sit.

• Anchor total: 54.5 (Over -122 / Under -108). Dallas’ defense allows explosives on the ground (7.1% run explosive allowed) and struggles on third down, which leans Over -122, but the juice is heavy.

• Cowboys team total 26.5 (Over -127 / Under -112). Dallas converts third downs 44.4% and owns a 65.2% red-zone TD rate. That supports Over -127.

• Commanders team total 27.5 (Over -120 / Under -119). This keys off Dallas’ defensive issues on money downs and run explosives; Over -120 is viable if Washington’s playmakers are active.

• George Pickens Anytime TD (+142). Dallas’ deep-pass profile (5.5% explosive) plus Pickens’ role creates live touchdown equity at a plus price.

• Jake Ferguson Anytime TD (+188). Dallas’ red-zone TD rate (65.2%) boosts a tight end target near the stripe.

Reminder: Washington skill players and CeeDee Lamb are Questionable. Reduce stake or wait for inactives if you’re tying bets to those names.

This sets up as an explosive game with swings. Dallas can push the ball vertically and protect its quarterback. Washington can find chunk gains on the ground against a defense that has leaked long runs.

The key battles are clear. Dallas’ passing game versus Washington’s wounded secondary. Washington’s ground game versus Dallas’ run-fit issues. Third downs should favor offense on both sides, which can drive points.

Our anchors: Commanders -3.0 (+106) and Total 54.5 with a lean to the Over -122 given Dallas’ defensive traits. If you prefer team totals, Cowboys Over 26.5 (-127) and Commanders Over 27.5 (-120) both track with the matchup. Price matters at these numbers. Manage juice, account for the Q-tags, and be ready to adjust once inactives drop.