• KC’s third-down offense at 44.4% (81st pctile) signals sustained drives that stress a short-handed Washington unit.

• Red-zone edge: 70.0% TD rate (88th pctile) means KC often cashes six, not three.

• Protection matters: 4.2% sack rate allowed (75th pctile) helps Mahomes attack intermediate windows even if the tackles are dinged.

• Defensive leverage: KC’s third-down stop rate of 64.9% (86th pctile) can squeeze a backup-led offense into punts.

• Receiver health is a swing factor: Worthy and Hollywood Brown are Questionable for KC; McLaurin and Deebo are Questionable for WSH. Active/inactive calls will shift target shares and spacing.

• Small-sample notes: Several KC traits list modest sample sizes; outcomes can swing on a few high-leverage snaps.

• Spread: Chiefs -10.5 (–145). Pricey juice for a key two-score number; aligns with KC’s third-down and red-zone edges.

• Total: Over 48.5 (–110). KC’s drive sustain plus red-zone rate supports scoring. Washington’s late chase scripts can add snaps.

• KC team total Over 30.5 (–114): Matches 70.0% red-zone TD profile if game state tilts positive.

• WSH team total Under 17.0 (–125): KC’s 64.9% third-down stops can stall drives with a backup QB.

• Mahomes Over 275.5 pass yds (–119): Third-down efficiency fuels attempts and yardage.

• Rashee Rice Over 66.5 rec yds (–120): Volume path if one of Worthy or Brown is limited; note minor variance on target splits.

Kansas City owns the cleanest path. Third-down offense and red-zone finish are strong tells. If the line holds up, Mahomes should control pace and field position.

Washington needs chunk plays and extra possessions. That is harder with Daniels out and key wideouts Questionable. If those receivers play limited snaps, the Commanders may lean on Mariota’s legs and short game, which can cap total yardage.

The market has pushed this to a two-score spread for good reasons. Still, large spreads bring variance late if a backdoor opens. Manage exposure and respect the juice on the number you choose.

Bottom line: Chiefs’ situational edges point to a comfortable script. If Washington can’t flip third downs or hit explosives, Kansas City should handle business and push this toward the high 40s in total points.