Teams You’ll Hate to Bet Against for the Championship: NBA Finals Predictions

NBA Finals Predictions: Recommended Picks

• Favored Frontrunner: Boston Celtics, +600 at BetMGM
• Sleeper Pick: Phoenix Suns, +1400 at PointsBet
• Longshot Bet: New Orleans Pelicans, +3000 at BetMGM

Who to Consider in NBA Finals Predictions?

The 2022-23 NBA season tipped off last week with much fanfare and anticipation. Bettors and fans alike pore over NBA Finals predictions in the weeks leading up to the regular season. But now that actual games are being played, the odds of winning the NBA championship started to shift. 

The Boston Celtics entered as a popular selection in NBA circles, and their play to start the season has backed up those assumptions. Sleeper teams like the Phoenix Suns and longshots like the New Orleans Pelicans have also started strong and seem like value plays in this wager. 

Betting Odds to Win NBA Championship

NBA Finals Predictions Frontrunner Pick: Boston Celtics

• Boston Celtics, +600 at BetMGM

The Boston Celtics stood among the teams with the best odds to win the NBA championship heading into the 2022-23 season. The Celtics won the Eastern Conference last season before losing the Finals to the Golden State Warriors. Most NBA Finals predictions pegged Boston as the popular pick considering the offseason additions of Malcolm Brogdon and Danilo Gallinari to complement stars, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. 

Despite the offseason scandal surrounding head coach Ime Udoka, Boston boasts a 3-0 start heading into its second week of play. That record includes impressive wins over Eastern Conference contenders in Miami and Philadelphia.  

Data from: basketball-reference.com (Accurate as of 10/24/22) 

The Celtics made it through the first week of the season ranked sixth in scoring in the NBA (121.0 points per game), but Boston posted the league’s top offensive rating over that stretch (125.3). Their defensive rating (117.7) leaves room for improvement, considering it’s currently in the bottom third of the league. Last year, the Celtics tied with the Golden State Warriors for the best defensive rating in the league.  

What’s hurt Boston’s defensive efforts early on is missing their top rim protector, Robert Williams III. The lengthy center is currently out with a knee injury, but he should return to action by midseason. The Celtics also played a pair of efficient offenses in that first week, which didn’t help those numbers.

Boston stands out as a top NBA Finals prediction because of its All-Stars, Tatum and Brown, and all of the complementary pieces the front office has situated around them. The addition of Brogdon added another ballhandler and playmaker to the group, something the Celtics sorely missed in last season’s playoff run. They match up well with the likes of the Milwaukee Bucks, a team they eliminated from the playoffs last season, and would lean on last season’s NBA Finals experience should they face off with the Warriors once again.  

NBA Finals Predictions Sleeper Pick: Phoenix Suns

•  Phoenix Suns, +1400 at PointsBet

The Phoenix Suns finished the 2021-22 regular season with the league’s best record (64-18) but sputtered in the playoffs. The Suns lost in the Western Conference semifinals to the Dallas Mavericks one season after nearly winning the franchise’s first NBA championship. Those playoff struggles ultimately relegated the Suns to sleeper status in most NBA Finals predictions. 

The Suns started in the second tier of teams with the best odds to win the NBA championship, checking in at +1300 for most sportsbooks. Questions surrounding the future of center Deandre Ayton were answered when Phoenix matched his max contract offer sheet, and the Suns’ young core of Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, and Cameron Johnson remains one of the most exciting in the league. 

Data from: basketball-reference.com (Accurate as of 10/24/22)

Phoenix exacted a measure of revenge on the Mavericks with their season-opening victory over Dallas. The Suns also topped another Western Conference contender, the Los Angeles Clippers, in the season’s first week. 

The Suns’ sport one of the league’s top defensive units, and that was on display in their first three games. Phoenix ranks fourth in opponent scoring (104.3) and seventh in defensive rating (105.4) despite playing three of the top offenses in the NBA to start the season. The Suns are in the middle of the pack offensively early on, but that’s bound to change, considering the talent on this roster.  

Phoenix remains a value play among NBA Finals predictions because they’re being overlooked at this point. The Suns’ sleeper status comes despite having more wins over the last two seasons (115) than any other NBA franchise. The other sleepers with similar odds to win the NBA championship don’t boast a future Hall of Famer at point guard like Chris Paul. Phoenix’s ability to defend separates it from the likes of the Denver Nuggets and Philadelphia 76ers. And even though the LA Lakers have LeBron James on their roster, the Suns seem like the better NBA Finals prediction at this point, considering their upside and offensive talent. 

NBA Finals Predictions Longshot Pick: New Orleans Pelicans

•  New Orleans Pelicans, +3000 at BetMGM 

Speaking of upside, some of the most intriguing NBA Finals predictions might include a longshot team like the New Orleans Pelicans. The Pelicans started the 2021-22 season 3-18 before making an unlikely run to the Western Conference playoffs. New Orleans topped both the San Antonio Spurs and L.A. Clippers in the play-in tournament, then gave the West’s top-seeded Suns a run for their money in the first round. Now, although they see long odds to win an NBA championship, the bettors backing the Pelicans can make a compelling case.   

Data from: basketball-reference.com (Accurate as of 10/24/22)

The Pelicans opened the season with an impressive victory over the Brooklyn Nets on the road. New Orleans dominated that matchup with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, scoring a 22-point victory on the road. The Pelicans followed that up with another double-digit road win in Charlotte before dropping their home opener by one point in overtime to close the season’s first week. 

What makes the Pelicans a compelling NBA Finals prediction is the presence of game-changing talents in their lineup. Zion Williamson returned after missing last season due to injury and flashed his All-NBA potential early on. Brandon Ingram remains one of the game’s best young All-Stars, and veterans like CJ McCollum and Jonas Valanciunas only add to the team’s depth. 

The Pelicans finished the first week of the season in the top five in the NBA in both scoring (125.0 points per game) and offensive rating (119.3). They’ve been solid defensively as well. That’s what separates New Orleans from the other longshots among NBA Finals predictions.  

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Who is favored to win the 2023 NBA Finals?

According to Caesars, the Golden State Warriors and Boston Celtics currently have equal odds to win the 2023 NBA championship at +575.

What date is the NBA Championship 2023?

Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Finals is set to be played on June 1. If the series goes to seven games, Game 7 of the 2023 NBA Finals will be played on June 18.

Which NBA team has won the most championships?

The Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers are tied for the most all-time NBA championships with 17 apiece. No other franchise has won more than seven NBA championships. 

Conclusion

Making the right NBA Finals predictions comes down to backing the right team with the right stars. The Boston Celtics stand with the best odds to win the NBA Championship and look very much like a title contender. The Phoenix Suns stand out as a sleeper pick because of their pedigree and overall talent, while the New Orleans Pelicans make a compelling longshot play thanks to their up-and-coming stars.  

For more basketball content, be sure to bookmark and return for coverage across the 2022-2023 season. Or read our guide: How To Bet on Basketball, and visit our odds comparison tool to compare the latest odds.

 
Written by David Fernandez

David has more than 15 years of writing experience in sports and sports betting. Before becoming a full-time writer, he was a high school English, Creative Writing, and Journalism teacher for nearly 20 years. He holds a Master's Degree in English and Creative Writing.

David writes for various publications, including Sidelines, Scorebook Live (SBLive), and Five Reasons Sports, and has previously been published in the Miami Herald and USA Today.