One game on the NFL slate. Monday, November 2, 2026. The Chicago Bears travel west to face the Seattle Seahawks, and the anytime touchdown market for Chicago Bears vs Seattle Seahawks is where my full attention sits tonight. Forty-two players on the board. One play I am on. Here is the breakdown.
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks
Let me start at the top of the board, because the model has something interesting to say and I want to be honest about why I am not following it all the way down.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle wide receiver, sits at a 46.9 percent model TD probability, tier HIGH. That is the single highest number on tonight's board. He is the most likely scorer the model sees. Here is the problem: his market odds are +106, which implies a 48.5 percent chance. The market is already pricing him above what the model gives. When the implied probability runs past the model probability, there is no gap to work with. I respect the number. I am not paying that price. JSN might score tonight. The math just does not give me a reason to back him at +106.
The same story applies to D'Andre Swift of Chicago. Model TD probability 44.9 percent, tier HIGH, market odds +102 implying 49.5 percent. Again, market above model. I noted it and moved on.
The player I am backing tonight is Zach Charbonnet, the Seattle running back. His model TD probability is 45.4 percent, tier HIGH. The market prices him at +146, which implies 40.6 percent. That is a clear positive gap, model above market, in the direction I want. My confidence on this pick is MEDIUM, and here is exactly what that means.
Charbonnet is returning from ACL surgery for his season debut Monday night. The data confirms he is active with no injury designation, and Mike Macdonald confirmed he will play. Less than 8.5 months post-op, on a Monday night stage, back in the mix. He scored in 6 of his last 10 games before going down. His charting profile shows 50 red-zone carries. That is the kind of goal-line and red-zone volume that drives the anytime touchdown market. Running backs who eat work near the end zone score touchdowns at a disproportionate rate. His profile fits that description.
The situation also points in his favor. Velus Jones Jr. is out with a hamstring injury. Jadarian Price is on injured reserve. Fewer mouths for the goal-line work, and the primary back benefits. That is a textbook funneling situation. The path to the end zone gets cleaner when the competition thins out.
So why MEDIUM and not HIGH? Because the snap-count question is real. Coming back from a torn ACL, even on a confirmed activation, a debut return can look like a managed workload. If Seattle is conservative with his minutes in the first half, the anytime touchdown opportunity compresses. That risk does not disappear. It is priced into the MEDIUM tag, and you should price it into your sizing. The model likes the 45.4 percent number. The line at +146 gives you positive value on that estimate. The situation clears the field. But the return timeline adds a layer of uncertainty that keeps me honest about the confidence level.
Before we go any further, here is the part that never changes. A 45.4 percent touchdown probability means this play fails to cash more often than it hits. Nearly six times out of ten, Charbonnet does not find the end zone. That is not a problem with the model. That is the reality of this market. Top plays in anytime TD are coin flips with a lean, not locks. Size for that reality.
Elsewhere on the board as context: Emanuel Wilson, Seattle running back, registers a 40.7 percent model TD probability, tier HIGH, at +295 market odds implying just 25.3 percent. That is a large positive gap in the model's favor. He is board context tonight, not one of my picks. Kyle Monangai of Chicago sits at 30.6 percent model probability with market odds of -120, which implies a 54.6 percent chance. The market is pricing him at nearly twice what the model gives. That is a significant overpricing relative to the model and not a number I am chasing. Colston Loveland, Chicago tight end, comes in at 30.3 percent, tier HIGH, at +215. Tight ends who operate in the red zone are always worth tracking in this market. He is board context only tonight.
A note on the LOW DATA tier: players like Jadarian Price, listed at 22.8 percent with a LOW DATA tag, have their numbers pulled toward the positional baseline rather than built on individual volume. Read those with an extra layer of caution. The model is flagging its own data limitations and you should respect that flag.
First Touchdown Market
The first touchdown board is ranked by market price only. The model does not produce first-TD estimates, so the anytime numbers are reference only in that context. Charbonnet tops the first-TD market at +410. If the anytime read resonates and you want a long-odds format, that is the line on the board. It is not a separate recommendation and I am not calling it a best play. It is the same player, the same reasoning, a different payout structure for a more specific outcome.
One-game slate, one play. Zach Charbonnet at +146, model TD probability 45.4 percent against a market implied of 40.6 percent. The situation does the work here: a cleared backfield, a confirmed activation, and a positive model-to-market gap in the right direction. The snap-count risk on an ACL return is real and the MEDIUM confidence tag reflects it honestly. This is not a lock. It is a well-reasoned probability at a fair price. Manage your sizing to match that reality.
All picks are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.
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