With the NFL season at its midway point, we have to assume that teams are as good as their record says they are as we look at potential NFL Week 10 picks. Even if that means taking teams seriously that we might have overlooked ahead of the season or starting to lose trust in teams we expected to be good.
In Week 10, six of the 14 games opened with a line of three points or less. Unfortunately, there is only one game between two teams that have a winning record. But with just about every team still in playoff contention, we’ve selected the most compelling and meaningful games when making our NFL Week 10 picks.
Seattle Seahawks vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday, November 13 at 9:30 am ET on the NFL Network
These are two of the most surprising teams in the NFL, albeit for different reasons. The Buccaneers have been uncharacteristically bad behind Tom Brady, while the Seahawks have found success with Geno Smith at quarterback, sending Seattle to the top of the NFC West. Despite the Seahawks winning four straight games, the oddsmakers have them as underdogs as they travel to Germany for a neutral-site clash with the Buccaneers. Our NFL Week 10 picks can’t ignore the value present in taking the Seahawks to keep it going and win a fifth straight game.
Of course, while Smith has done an excellent job of managing the Seattle offense, rookie running back Kenneth Walker has been the team’s secret sauce. He’s gotten back the opportunity to be the workhorse with Rashaad Penny suffering a season-ending injury and made the most of it. Walker has rushed for over 80 yards in four of his last five games, including two games with over 100 yards.
Equally important for our NFL Week 10 picks, Walker has scored seven touchdowns in those five games. Since he’s getting a bulk of Seattle’s touches in the running game, Walker is poised to find the end zone for a sixth consecutive game this week. Meanwhile, with Smith utilizing the talents of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett while Walker helps the Seattle offense stay balanced, the Seahawks are averaging 28.5 points per game during their four-game winning streak.
Even though Tampa’s defense is conceding just 18.2 points per game, the Buccaneers will need to score more than they have recently if they expect to win. The Bucs averaged just 16 points per game over their last five games. Tampa only managed 16 points in last week’s win over the Rams to snap a three-game losing streak. But they may not be able to force another defensive slugfest this week. That’s why our Week 10 NFL picks project another Seattle win.
NFL Week 10 Picks: Seahawks vs Buccaneers - Recommended Bets
Minnesota Vikings @ Buffalo Bills, Sunday, November 13 at 1 pm ET on Fox
Coming off a road loss to the Jets, the Bills look a little vulnerable heading into their showdown with the 7-1 Vikings. The Bills are 3-0 at home this year, with all three wins coming by at least 10 points. But their last two home wins have come against the listless Steelers and the spiraling Packers. The Vikings are undoubtedly a better opponent than those teams.
There is also a question about Josh Allen’s health after he suffered an elbow injury in last week’s loss. The good news for the Bills is they still have the best defense in the league, conceding just 14.8 points per game. No team has scored more than 21 points against them in any game this season. But if Allen isn’t healthy, it could be a struggle to cover the spread against a quality opponent. That’s why even if the Bills can eke out a win over the Vikings, our NFL Week 10 picks like Minnesota to beat the spread.
Remember that the Vikings might have the best offense the Buffalo defense has faced this season. No team has been able to slow down Justin Jefferson, who is averaging over 108 receiving yards per game and has 98 receiving yards or more in six of Minnesota’s eight games. With several key injuries in Buffalo’s secondary, the Bills might have a hard time containing Jefferson, which is a significant factor in our Week 10 NFL picks.
With Jefferson continuing to establish himself as one of the elite receivers in the NFL, the Eagles are the only team to keep the Vikings under 20 points this season. If Minnesota’s offense can get to at least 20 points again this week, the Vikings should be able to at least make this a one-score game and give themselves a shot to pull off the upset.
NFL Week 10 Picks: Vikings vs Bills - Recommended Bets
Los Angeles Chargers @ San Francisco 49ers, Sunday, November 13 at 8:20 pm ET on NBC
Despite all of their wins being lopsided affairs, it’s a little puzzling to see the 4-4 49ers as such heavy favorites in this game. There have been mixed results from the San Francisco offense under Jimmy Garoppolo. While he’s completed over 70% of his passes in two of his last three games, he’s also thrown three interceptions and been sacked eight times.
More importantly, the 49ers will likely focus even more on running the ball now that they have Christian McCaffrey back to use as a workhorse. That should play out this week, with the Chargers allowing the league’s fourth-most rushing yards per game. Even if running the ball effectively helps them win the game, it will make it harder to pull away. As a result, our NFL Week 10 picks include the 49ers failing to cover the spread in a low-scoring game.
NFL - Highest Opponent Rushing Yards per Game Stats Pack 2022/23
Opponent Rushing Yards per Game (Total)
Opponent Rushing Yards per Game (Home)
Opponent Rushing Yards per Game (Away)
Data from: https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-rushing-yards-per-game (Accurate as of 11/09/22)
San Francisco’s strong defense should help force the Chargers into a low-scoring game. Nick Bosa is tied for second in the league with 8.5 sacks this season, leading a defense conceding just 18.4 points per game and holding six of eight opponents under 20 points.
The caveat is the Chargers rank fourth in the NFL in passing yards, thanks to Justin Herbert. Even if the Los Angeles offense can score enough points to keep this game close, they may not be able to draw the 49ers into a shootout. The Chargers have been stifled by quality defensive teams like the Jaguars and Broncos this season, which is why our NFL picks in Week 10 reflect that happening again; even the 49ers won’t pull away enough to cover.
NFL Week 10 Picks: Chargers vs 49ers - Recommended Bets
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What did we learn from NFL Week 9?
In Week 9 of the NFL season, we learned there is no clear favorite in the AFC. The Bills lost to the Jets, while the Chiefs barely eked out a home win over the Titans with their offense struggling all night. Meanwhile, the Eagles and Vikings continue to separate themselves in the NFC, with both winning again. Philadelphia remains undefeated, while Minnesota’s only loss this year came against the Eagles.
What NFL teams have a bye in Week 10?
There are four NFL teams with a bye in Week 10. Those teams are the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots, and New York Jets.
Written by Bryan Zarpentine
Bryan has been a sports and sports betting writer for over 12 years. When he's not writing about sports, he's usually watching sports, attending sporting events, or on road trips on his way to sporting events.
Bryan is an NCAA football and basketball specialist who gives excellent insight into MLB and the NFL worlds.