Six Profitable EPL Picks You Shouldn’t Ignore – Premier League Week 16 Picks and Odds

The Premier League returns on Saturday with another action-packed schedule, including key games for Manchester City, Newcastle, Chelsea, and Liverpool. Check out the odds, our expert analysis, and Premier League week 16 picks to determine which teams are worth adding to your betting slip. 

Premier League Week 16 Picks

  • Man City winning at half-time/full-time, -105 at Caesars Sportsbook
  • Man City win & both teams score, +135 at FanDuel 
  • Newcastle vs. Chelsea: Under 2.5 goals, -110 at PointsBet
  • Newcastle win, +130 at BetMGM  
  • Liverpool vs. Southampton: Liverpool -1 handicap, -155 at PointsBet 
  • Liverpool vs. Southampton: Liverpool win & over 2.5 goals, -180 @ FanDuel  

Top-of-the-table clash resumes  

Manchester City momentarily found themselves atop of the EPL standings simply by playing before Arsenal, who climbed back to the summit the following day after matching City’s win with one o their own.  The Gunners continue to match Pep Guardiola's squad and have shown no signs of faltering as yet. 

Newcastle has slowly but surely entered the title race with a solid four-game consecutive win streak to claim third position. Meanwhile, Spurs have lost three of their previous four EPL games and continue to lose steam heading into the World Cup break. More worryingly, Antonio Contes' men have conceded the second-most goals from the division's top eight teams.    

As the top of the table clash resumes, check out the Premier League Week 16 picks below.   

Manchester City vs Brentford EPL Week 16 Predictions 

Brentford @ Manchester City, Saturday, November 12 at 7:30 am ET on USA

The defending champions are back inside the Etihad Stadium this weekend in their hunt for the top spot ahead of the World Cup break. Manchester City's overall chance of victory is significantly high with a visiting Brentford squad that's been inconsistent all season, most recently losing to a team 78 places below them in a cup match, despite putting out their strongest side. 

City has been flawless on home soil this term, winning all of their domestic fixtures in front of the Etihad faithful. They're averaging 4.2 goals per home game with a total aggregate of 21-5. They've been particularly clinical in the first 25 minutes of play, netting at least one goal within this time in their previous five home games. As the betting odds have naturally juiced the EPL champions to the high heavens, factoring in their first-half performances so far is a great way to extend the moneyline odds by backing a half-time/full-time result for the Premier League Week 16 picks. 


Supporting the case for a home victory is Brentford's appalling road form. Through 16 weeks of the EPL schedule, Brentford has failed to win a single game. That said, they're averaging one goal from their previous five away games, which makes the Man City win and both teams to score a tempting wager with plus-money offerings at hand for the EPL Week 16 predictions. 

Man City Over X Goals 1H/2H 


At Home


Avg 1H 




Over 0.5 1H




Over 1.5 1H





Data from: (Accurate as of 11/09/22) 

Premier League Week 16 Picks: Recommended Bets

  • Man City winning at half-time/full-time, -105 at Caesars Sportsbook
  • Man City win & both teams score, +135 at FanDuel 

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Newcastle vs Chelsea EPL Week 16 Predictions 

Chelsea @ Newcastle, Saturday, November 12 at 12:30 pm ET on NBC


Who would have predicted that Newcastle would be inside the top three while Chelsea sits in seventh heading into Week 16 of the EPL season? Well, that'll be the case when the Blues travel up North to meet an old rival in Newcastle, and the tides have unquestionably turned since their 2021/22 meetings. 


Newcastle's season has been joyous thus far, as the former "Big Six" club is looking to re-establish itself as a top-six club. A Saudi-backed group completed its takeover last year, and the Magpies have been on the up ever since. And now, entering Saturday's meeting with Chelsea, head coach Eddie Howe is proudly holding on to an undefeated 5-game win streak where his team has scored at least three goals during these encounters.


On the other hand, Chelsea is battling against inconsistency when playing away from home. They've barely found the net in their most recent road trips, scoring just two goals when visiting Brighton and Manchester United combined. When faced with Newcastle's robust defense, these factors could be detrimental to Chelsea's goal-scoring chances. 


On that note, Chelsea has shown significant resilience when defending, allowing 0.25 fewer goals per game than teams outside the top five. Expecting a low-scoring encounter this weekend can provide a valuable return if backing the under 2.5 goals at -110. And although Chelsea owns the statistical dominance in historical meetings between the two, Newcastle is on fire and looks primed for a sneak 1-0 home win.      


Newcastle vs. Chelsea: Key Defensive Statistics   






0.71 (Home)

1.43 (Away)

Failed to Score %

14% (Home)

29% (Away)

Shots Conversion Rate

12% (Home)

7% (Away)

Clean Sheets %



xG Against/Match

1.27 (Home) 

1.56 (Away)


Data from:  (Accurate as of 11/09/22) 


Premier League Week 16 Picks: Recommended Bets

  • Newcastle vs. Chelsea: Under 2.5 goals, -110 at PointsBet
  • Newcastle win, +130 at BetMGM  

Liverpool vs. Southampton EPL Week 16 Predictions 

Southampton @ Liverpool, Saturday, November 12 at 10 am ET on USA


The unexplainable 2022/23 EPL season of Liverpool continues. Following their success over Manchester City, qualification for the Champions League Round of 16, and two back-to-back losses against relegation-battling teams, Jurgen Klopp's men return after defeating Tottenham 2-1 away from home last weekend. Will the lower-half curse continue against the Saints this weekend and affect the Premier League Week 16 picks? 


With consecutive domestic losses, Southampton is now in the relegation zone, and a repeat of last season's struggles is being repeated. Former head coach Ralph Hasenhuttl has been given the boot as Ruben Selles takes charge on an interim basis. However, a managerial adjustment isn't going to fix the apparent issues overnight despite often seeing a jump in performance when an underperforming manager’s shackles are taken off the players. The Saints have won just one of their five EPL away meetings this season, failing to score in four while allowing six goals. 


The Reds haven't looked like a top-six club this term, but it's hard not to feel like this will change imminently, as a top-four positioning isn't that far from their grasp. Southampton has underperformed away from home, and now they'll be faced with on-form Mohammed Salah, Roberto Firmino, and Darwin Nunez at Anfield. 


Liverpool can easily win this game by two or three goals when presented with a faltering Southampton defense. With a -155 price on the -1 Liverpool handicap, we can't ignore this betting value for our Premier League Week 16 picks.    


Premier League Week 16 Picks: Recommended Bets

  • Liverpool vs. Southampton: Liverpool -1 handicap, -155 at PointsBet 
  • Liverpool vs. Southampton: Liverpool win & over 2.5 goals, -180 @ FanDuel  

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)


How will the World Cup affect the Premier League?

The 2022 World Cup will force a break of roughly six weeks for the Premier League and every other major European league. The schedule of the World Cup in November and December has already forced the Premier League to start sooner and end later than usual. The league has also been forced to schedule more midweek fixtures. There will be a whole week between the end of Premier League fixtures and the start of the World Cup and eight days between the World Cup final and the resumption of the Premier League season.


When will the Premier League resume after the international break?

After the 2022 World Cup, the Premier League will resume on December 26. There are seven games on December 26th, with Brentford playing Tottenham in the first Premier League game following the international break.


Written by David Manyun

David is an experienced content writer with strong EPL knowledge. He offers an extensive analysis of odds and the numbers crucial to betting.  

He also specializes in combat sports, having followed MMA for over 20 years, and has an impressive record in pre-fight predictions, regularly wagering himself.