How to Back the USMNT Without Hurting Your Bankroll – World Cup Preview and USA Qatar Odds

USA Qatar Odds and Predictions

• USMNT to Win against Wales, +150 at PointsBet
• USMNT Ties England, +265 at Caesars
• Iran to Win against USMNT, +230 at BetMGM
• USMNT to Qualify for the Round of 16 (knockout stage), +100 at BetMGM

What are the USMNT World Cup Chances?

The 2022 World Cup in Qatar is almost here, and for the U.S. Men’s National Team (USMNT), a nearly eight-year wait since their last World Cup game is about to end. But what are the USA’s Qatar odds and the USMNT World Cup chances in the world’s greatest sporting event? The Americans are high on talent but have plenty of questions ahead of the World Cup, which has some doubting Team USA’s Qatar odds and potential.

A successful USA World Cup is possible with a manageable group phase that includes Wales, England, and Iran. However, success is far from guaranteed, especially considering the USA Qatar odds. Let’s take a closer look at the USMNT’s World Cup chances and the outlook for the Americans from a betting perspective.

The Opening Act

There’s no doubt that the USA’s World Cup chances depend on the opening match against Wales. On paper, this is a match that could go either way. Of course, from the Welsh perspective, this is one of the biggest games in the nation’s history. Wales hasn’t been to a World Cup since 1958, so the pressure on these players will be immense.

The young American squad might be able to take advantage of that. Since June, Wales has had one win and five losses in seven matches, with all five losses coming against teams in the World Cup, so they have yet to fare well against quality competition. Plus, the nation’s only superstar, Gareth Bale, is past his prime and now playing in MLS. The Americans should have the better talent on the field, and the USA’s World Cup chances will get a boost after they take all three points from their opening match, something the USMNT has done in two of their last four World Cup openers.

USA Qatar Odds - Recommended Bet

• US Beats Wales, +150 at PointsBet

Hello, Old Friend

The USA’s Qatar odds are not necessarily dependent on the team’s second match against England. But this is undoubtedly the most anticipated game of the group stage for the Americans. The USMNT earned a famous 1-1 draw with England during the group stage of the 2010 World Cup, and there is substantial betting value in the Americans achieving a similar result in Qatar.

England is likely to overlook the USMNT just a little, especially if they beat Iran in their first match, as they’ll have the all-UK showdown with Wales in their final group stage match in their sights. That could be a flaw in the psyche of their opponents that the USMNT can seize upon. England might have more talent and the experience of reaching the semi-finals of the last World Cup and the finals of the Euros last summer, but they had the advantage of playing all but one of their Euros games at home. They don’t now have a settled team and had a disappointing Nations League campaign, failing to win any of their six matches and scoring just four goals, with three of those in their final game.

The Americans are young and fearless, without the weight of England's expectation. They have the mentality to want to prove themselves against one of the tournament favorites and are likely to be more used to the heat, giving them the energy to earn a draw and boost their chances of a place in the Round of 16.

USA Qatar Odds - Recommended Bet

• USMNT Ties England, +265 at Caesars

Let Down

Unfortunately for the USMNT, history dictates that a letdown is likely coming in the final game of the group stage, tempering the USA’s Qatar odds to make some noise in the tournament. In their last seven World Cups, the USMNT has lost the final game of the group stage six times. 

Of course, the Iranian team deserves some credit as well.  They managed a win over Morocco, a draw with Portugal, and a close loss to Spain in the last World Cup. They are, after all, the team with the second most World Cup experience in the group after England. The Iranians have also had a recent (September) win over Uruguay (who the USMNT drew with in June) and draw with Senegal, so they look ready for the World Cup and are continuing the strong form they showed in qualification (winning eight of their 10 games). The USMNT, on the other hand, haven’t won any of their last three games and are without a win outside of the USA in 2022.

Data taken from: https://footystats.org/ (Accurate as of 10/25/2022)

Additionally, Iran is playing close to home and will be better able to handle the weather conditions in Qatar. Given the number of games in a short time, we expect fatigue to be a bigger factor than usual in this final group game. Add the fact that the Iran team is built on a solid defense (conceding just 0.7 goals per match in 2022 and stopping their opponents from scoring in every other game). The USMNT has questions to answer in the striking department (scoring an average of just 0.2 goals per game away from home in 2022), and we expect a repeat of 1998 with Iran beating the USMNT in the World Cup once again.

USA Qatar Odds - Recommended Bet

• USMNT Loses to Iran, +230 at BetMGM

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

What are the US’s chances of winning the World Cup?

According to Caesars, the U.S. has +10000 odds of winning the 2022 World Cup. There are four other teams with equal odds and 14 teams with shorter odds than the U.S. to win the 2022 World Cup.

What is the history of the USMNT in the World Cup? 

Heading into the 2022 World Cup, the USMNT has appeared in nine previous World Cups. Their best finish came in 1930 when they finished third in a 13-team tournament. After qualifying for the 1950 World Cup, the U.S. didn’t qualify again until the 1990 World Cup, beginning a stretch of six consecutive World Cups until the Americans failed to qualify for the 2018 World Cup. A trip to the quarterfinals in 2002 was the USMNT’s best World Cup finish during those six World Cups.

Bottom Line: Survive and Advance

Much like the 2002 and 2014 World Cups, we expect the USA will advance to the knockout rounds and that four points (after a win against Wales and a tie against England) will seal it. 

Unfortunately for the US, that’s where we expect the journey to end. The Americans no doubt have the talent to reach the quarterfinals and beyond. But injuries, fatigue, and a lack of depth will take their toll. The USMNT will also have to overcome questions with managerial tactics and at striker and center back, making a trip to the quarterfinals unlikely. With either Senegal or the Netherlands likely waiting for the US in the Round of 16, this will be the end of the road for the Americans.

If you're looking for more soccer content, read our guide: How To Bet on Soccer, and visit our odds comparison tool to compare the latest odds.

Written by Bryan Zarpentine

Bryan Zarpentine has been a sports and sports betting writer for over 12 years. When he's not writing about sports, he's usually watching sports, attending sporting events, or on road trips on his way to sporting events.

Bryan is an NCAA football and basketball specialist who gives excellent insight into MLB and the NFL worlds.