Buying Points in Sports Betting

Buying points is one of the most debated strategies in sports betting. By paying extra juice, bettors can move the point spread in their favor, potentially turning a loss into a push or a push into a win. But is the added cost worth it? The answer depends entirely on the specific numbers involved and your understanding of when this strategy makes mathematical sense.

This guide breaks down everything you need to know about buying points, from the basic mechanics to advanced cost-benefit analysis. You will learn which numbers are worth buying through, when the strategy has positive expected value, and the common mistakes that cost recreational bettors money.

What Is Buying Points in Sports Betting

Buying points means paying additional juice (vigorish) to move the point spread in your favor. Instead of betting the standard line, you accept worse odds in exchange for a more favorable spread.

For example, if the Dallas Cowboys are favored by 3 points at standard -110 odds, you could buy a half-point to get Cowboys -2.5 at -120 odds. You are paying the extra juice (going from -110 to -120) to reduce your spread by half a point.

The opposite also exists: selling points means moving the spread against yourself in exchange for better odds. If you think the Cowboys will win by a comfortable margin, you might sell points to get Cowboys -3.5 at +100 instead of -3 at -110.

Understanding how buying points fits into the broader context of point spread betting is essential before deciding when and how to use this strategy.

How Buying Points Works

The mechanics of buying points are straightforward, though the pricing varies by sportsbook and by which numbers you are crossing.

Standard Pricing

Most sportsbooks follow a general pricing structure for buying points:

Points Bought	Standard Price Increase	Example
0.5 points	10 cents (standard)	-110 becomes -120
1 point	20 cents (standard)	-110 becomes -130
1.5 points	30 cents (standard)	-110 becomes -140
2 points	40 cents (standard)	-110 becomes -150

However, this standard pricing does not apply uniformly. Crossing key numbers costs significantly more.

Key Number Premium Pricing

Key numbers in football, particularly 3 and 7, see the most final score margins. Because of this, sportsbooks charge a premium to buy through these numbers.

Scenario	Typical Cost	Example
Buying off 3 (3 to 2.5)	15-25 cents	-110 becomes -125 to -135
Buying through 3 (3.5 to 2.5)	25-35 cents	-110 becomes -135 to -145
Buying off 7 (7 to 6.5)	15-20 cents	-110 becomes -125 to -130
Buying through 7 (7.5 to 6.5)	20-30 cents	-110 becomes -130 to -140

The exact pricing varies by sportsbook, which creates opportunities for line shopping when you plan to buy points.

When to Buy Points: The Key Numbers Strategy

The decision to buy points should be driven by mathematics, not emotion. The critical factor is understanding key numbers in spread betting and when crossing them provides enough value to justify the cost.

NFL Key Numbers

In the NFL, certain margins of victory occur far more frequently than others due to the scoring structure (touchdown = 7, field goal = 3). The most important key numbers are:

Key Number	Approximate Frequency	Why It Matters
3	15-16% of games	One field goal difference
7	9-10% of games	One touchdown difference
10	6-7% of games	TD + FG difference
6	5-6% of games	Two field goals
4	4-5% of games	FG + safety or FG + 2pt
14	4-5% of games	Two touchdowns

The key insight: buying from -3.5 to -2.5 means you are buying through the 3, turning potential losses into pushes for roughly 15-16% of NFL games that land exactly on that number. This is where buying points can have genuine value.

NBA Key Numbers

Basketball has less pronounced key numbers because:

• Higher scoring means more possible final margins
• No scoring play dominates like the 3-point field goal in football
• Late-game fouling strategies create random final margins

The most common NBA margins are 1-5 points, but none approach the frequency of 3 in football. This makes buying points in NBA betting rarely worthwhile from a mathematical standpoint.

College Football

College football follows similar patterns to the NFL with 3 and 7 being key numbers, though with slightly more variance due to:

• Greater talent disparities creating more blowouts
• Different extra point and two-point conversion tendencies
• Overtime rules affecting final margins

MLB and NHL

For baseball run lines and hockey puck lines (typically set at 1.5), the dynamics differ significantly:

• The 1.5 line itself is the key number
• Buying from +1.5 to +2.5 has significant value for underdogs
• Selling from -1.5 to -2.5 can offer value for heavy favorites

Cost-Benefit Analysis: When Buying Points Has Positive Expected Value

The fundamental question is whether the increased win probability from a better number justifies the increased juice cost. This requires understanding break-even win rates.

Break-Even Win Rates by Odds

Odds	Break-Even Win Rate	Implied Edge Needed
-110	52.38%	Baseline
-115	53.49%	+1.11%
-120	54.55%	+2.17%
-125	55.56%	+3.18%
-130	56.52%	+4.14%
-135	57.45%	+5.07%
-140	58.33%	+5.95%

The Math Behind Buying Through 3

Consider this scenario: You want to bet on a 3-point favorite in the NFL.

Option A: Bet -3 at -110 (standard) Option B: Buy to -2.5 at -125 (bought half-point)

For Option B to be worthwhile, the value of crossing the 3 must exceed the cost of the extra juice.

If games land on exactly 3 about 15% of the time, buying from -3 to -2.5:

• Turns 15% of your losses into pushes
• Assuming a 50/50 base win rate, you go from losing 50% to losing 42.5% (with 7.5% pushing)

Adjusting for pushes converting to wins at the -2.5 line:

• At -3: 50% win, 50% lose
• At -2.5: 50% win + 7.5% of former losses now win = 57.5% win, 42.5% lose

The break-even for -125 is 55.56%. With 57.5% winning, you have positive expected value.

This simplified example shows why buying off 3 in the NFL can make sense, especially at reasonable juice prices.

When Buying Points Is a Bad Deal

Buying points becomes negative EV when:

1. Crossing non-key numbers: Buying from -5.5 to -4.5 in football provides minimal value because few games land on exactly 5
2. Paying too much for key numbers: If a book charges 30+ cents to buy off 3, the math often stops working
3. Buying multiple points: Each additional half-point costs more juice while providing diminishing returns
4. NBA and other high-scoring sports: The lack of dominant key numbers means you rarely get enough value

Buying Points vs. Alternate Spreads

Many bettors confuse buying points with betting alternate spreads. While both allow you to bet different numbers than the main line, there are important distinctions.

Buying Points

• You select how many points to buy
• Price increases incrementally per half-point
• Available at most sportsbooks
• Generally more flexibility

Alternate Spreads

• Pre-set lines at pre-set prices
• Prices determined by sportsbook models
• May offer different value than buying incrementally
• Sometimes includes options not available through buying

Which to Use

Compare the prices before betting. Sometimes alternate spread pricing is better than buying incrementally, and vice versa. For example:

• Buying from -7 to -6 might cost 20 cents (to -130)
• The alternate spread at -6 might be priced at -125

In this case, the alternate spread offers better value. Always check both options when available.

Buying Points Across Different Sports

NFL: Most Valuable

The NFL is where buying points makes the most mathematical sense:

• Clear key numbers (3, 7) with high landing frequencies
• Relatively low scoring means each point matters more
• Games frequently decided by one score
• Well-established historical data on margin frequencies

Best situations for buying in the NFL:

• Buying off 3 when the juice is 20 cents or less
• Buying off 7 when the juice is 15 cents or less
• Buying through 3 (from 3.5 to 2.5) in high-value spots

NBA: Rarely Valuable

Basketball bettors should generally avoid buying points:

• No dominant key numbers
• High variance in final margins due to late-game fouling
• More games decided by larger margins
• The math rarely supports the added cost

Exception: In specific playoff situations with historically tight margins, buying off 1 or 2 might have marginal value.

College Football: Similar to NFL

College football mirrors NFL patterns with some differences:

• Key numbers of 3 and 7 still apply
• More blowouts mean spreads above 20 have different dynamics
• Greater variance in competitive balance
• Conference play vs. non-conference affects margin patterns

MLB Run Lines

Baseball presents unique buying opportunities:

• The standard 1.5 run line is itself a key number
• Buying from +1.5 to +2.5 for underdogs can have significant value
• One-run games are extremely common (about 30% of MLB games)
• Selling points for heavy favorites (-1.5 to -2.5) at plus money can be valuable

NHL Puck Lines

Similar to baseball:

• 1.5 is the standard puck line
• One-goal games are common in hockey
• Buying to +2.5 for underdogs has definite applications
• Empty net goals create variance in final margins

Common Mistakes When Buying Points

Buying Across Non-Key Numbers

The most common mistake is buying points that rarely matter. Buying from -4.5 to -4 or from -8 to -7.5 in football provides minimal value because those exact margins occur infrequently.

Rule of thumb: If you cannot explain why the specific number you are crossing matters, you probably should not buy through it.

Overpaying for Key Numbers

Some sportsbooks charge excessive juice to buy off key numbers. If you see a book charging 35 cents to buy from -3 to -2.5, the math stops working even for the most valuable key number.

Solution: Compare prices across multiple sportsbooks before buying points.

Emotional Buying

Buying points after a bad beat or because you "have a feeling" leads to long-term losses. The decision should always be mathematical, not emotional.

Not Calculating True Cost

Many bettors do not understand what they are paying. Going from -110 to -130 is not just "20 cents more" — it increases your required win rate from 52.38% to 56.52%. That 4.14% difference compounds over hundreds of bets.

Buying Too Many Points

Each additional half-point costs more juice while providing less value. Buying 2 full points (4 half-points) might take you from -110 to -150, requiring a 60% win rate just to break even. The cumulative cost almost never justifies the benefit.

Advanced Strategies

Combining with Teasers

Teasers offer a structured way to buy points across multiple games. A standard NFL teaser lets you buy 6 points on two or more games at a fixed price, which is often better value than buying points on individual bets.

For example, a 2-team 6-point teaser at -120 moves:

• Game 1: From -8 to -2
• Game 2: From -3 to +3

Buying 6 points individually on each game would cost far more than -120 per game.

Line Shopping Before Buying

If you plan to buy points, shop the line first:

1. Check all available sportsbooks for the base spread
2. Compare buying point costs across books
3. Calculate total cost at each book
4. Factor in any promotions or odds boosts

You might find Book A has a worse base line but cheaper point-buying, making it the better overall option.

Live Betting Considerations

In-game betting changes the buying points calculus:

• Key numbers still matter during the game
• Momentum can make certain numbers more or less likely
• Late-game situations create specific buying opportunities
• Time remaining affects the value of each point

Bankroll Management

When you buy points:

• Your potential payout decreases (worse odds)
• Your risk stays the same (standard unit bet)
• Your break-even win rate increases

Adjust your bankroll strategy accordingly. Some bettors use smaller units when buying points to account for the reduced expected value per bet.

Using the Point Spread Calculator

Our point spread calculator helps you analyze different spread scenarios and understand the true cost of buying points.

To analyze buying points scenarios:

1. Enter the original spread and odds
2. Calculate the implied probability and potential return
3. Enter the bought spread and new odds
4. Compare the break-even win rates
5. Determine if the expected value increase justifies the cost

The calculator shows you exactly what you are paying in terms of implied probability when you buy points, helping you make mathematically sound decisions.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is buying points worth it in sports betting?

It depends entirely on the specific numbers and sport. In NFL betting, buying through key numbers like 3 and 7 can have positive expected value when the juice cost is reasonable (15-25 cents). In most other situations and sports, buying points is not mathematically justified. Always calculate the break-even win rate increase before deciding.

How much does it cost to buy a half-point?

Standard pricing is 10 cents per half-point (e.g., -110 becomes -120), but this varies significantly. Buying through key numbers in football costs more, typically 15-25 cents for the 3 and 7. Sportsbooks also differ in their pricing, making line shopping important when you plan to buy points.

What are the best numbers to buy through?

In NFL betting, buying through 3 offers the most value because approximately 15-16% of games land on exactly that margin. Buying through 7 is the second most valuable at roughly 9-10% frequency. Other numbers like 4, 6, and 10 have some value but less than 3 and 7. In basketball and other high-scoring sports, no numbers are worth buying through.

Should I buy points in NFL betting?

NFL betting is where buying points makes the most sense, but it is not a universal strategy. Buy points when crossing key numbers (especially 3 and 7) and when the juice cost is reasonable (under 25 cents for buying off 3, under 20 cents for 7). Do not buy points across non-key numbers or when books charge excessive premiums.

Is buying points better than betting alternate spreads?

Neither is inherently better. Compare the pricing in each specific situation. Sometimes alternate spread pricing offers better value than buying incrementally, and sometimes the opposite is true. Check both options at your sportsbook before placing the bet.

Can you buy points on totals?

Yes, most sportsbooks allow buying points on over/under totals. The same principles apply: you pay extra juice for a better number. However, totals have fewer meaningful key numbers than spreads, making buying points on totals rarely worthwhile. The exceptions are buying off common totals like 41, 44, and 47 in NFL games.

Why does it cost more to buy off 3 or 7?

Sportsbooks charge premium pricing for key numbers because these margins occur most frequently in football. Since buying off 3 turns losses into pushes roughly 15% of the time (when games land on exactly 3), the book needs to charge more to compensate for this significant probability shift. The same logic applies to 7 at a smaller scale.

How do I know if buying points is a good value?

Calculate the break-even win rate at both the original and bought price. If the probability improvement from the better number exceeds the win rate increase required by the higher juice, buying points has positive expected value. For NFL key numbers, this calculation usually works when buying off 3 at 20 cents or less, and off 7 at 15 cents or less.