Key Numbers in Point Spread Betting: NFL & NBA Guide

Key numbers are margins of victory that occur more frequently than others in a given sport. In the NFL, games often end with margins of 3, 7, or 10 points because of how football is scored. Understanding key numbers is one of the most important concepts in point spread betting because they directly affect the value of different lines and when buying or selling points makes sense.

This guide explains what key numbers are, why they matter, how to identify them, and how to use them strategically in NFL, NBA, and other sports. You will learn when it is worth paying extra juice to cross a key number and when to avoid it. You will also see historical data on margin distribution and how key numbers fit into broader betting strategy.

By the end, you should have a clear understanding of how key numbers affect value and how to incorporate them into your decision-making process. Sports betting should always be optional and affordable, so if you choose to bet, understand the risks first.

What Are Key Numbers in Point Spread Betting?

Key numbers are specific point margins that occur more frequently than others as final scores in a given sport. They are called key because they represent critical thresholds where small changes in the spread can have outsized effects on win probability.

Example in the NFL:

• 3 points (one field goal) is the most common margin of victory
• 7 points (one touchdown with extra point) is the second most common
• 10 points (one touchdown plus field goal) is the third most common

Because games land on these numbers more often than on 4, 5, 6, 8, or 9, spreads that cross through key numbers are significantly more valuable than spreads that do not.

Why Key Numbers Exist

Key numbers exist because of scoring patterns. In football, points come in chunks of 3 (field goals), 7 (touchdowns with extra point), and occasionally 6, 8, or 2. This creates natural clustering around certain margins.

In basketball, scoring is more continuous, so key numbers are less rigid. But even in the NBA, certain margins (like 5-7 points) appear more often than others.

The Most Common Key Numbers by Sport

NFL:

• 3 (most common)
• 7 (second most common)
• 10, 4, 6 (less common but still meaningful)

NBA:

• 5, 6, 7 (most common)
• Key numbers are less rigid than in the NFL

MLB & NHL:

• Run line and puck line use fixed ±1.5 spreads, so traditional key numbers are less relevant

Key Numbers in the NFL (3, 7, 10, and More)

The NFL is the sport where key numbers matter most. Understanding how often games land on 3, 7, and 10 is essential for making smart spread bets.

Why 3 Is the Most Common Margin

Field goals are worth 3 points, and many close games are decided by a single field goal in the final minutes. Historically, 3 is the most common final margin in NFL games.

Historical data:

• Roughly 9-10% of NFL games end with a 3-point margin
• Another 3-4% of games end with exactly 7 points
• Another 2-3% end with 10 points

This means that spreads crossing 3 or 7 have meaningfully different win probabilities than spreads just above or below those numbers.

Why 7 Is the Second Most Common Margin

Touchdowns with extra points are worth 7 points, so games where one team scores one more touchdown than the other often end with a 7-point margin.

Example:

• Team A scores 2 touchdowns (14 points)
• Team B scores 1 touchdown (7 points)
• Final margin: 7 points

Why 10 Matters (And 4, 6, 14)

10 points represents a touchdown plus field goal, which is another common scoring combination. After 3 and 7, margins of 10, 4, 6, and 14 also appear more often than others.

Margin frequency (approximate):

1. 3 points (~9-10%)
2. 7 points (~3-4%)
3. 10 points (~2-3%)
4. 4 points (~2%)
5. 6 points (~2%)

For a detailed breakdown of all margins and frequencies, see the historical data section below.

How Key Numbers Affect Spread Value

Not all half-point differences are created equal. Moving from -7 to -6.5 is far more valuable than moving from -5 to -4.5 because 7 is a key number and 5 is not.

The Hook (0.5 Points) Around Key Numbers

The hook refers to the half-point on spreads like -7.5 or +3.5. Around key numbers, the hook is especially valuable.

Example:

• At -7, if the favorite wins by exactly 7, the bet pushes
• At -7.5, if the favorite wins by 7, the bet loses
• At -6.5, if the favorite wins by 7, the bet wins

The difference between -7.5 and -6.5 is massive in games that land on 7.

Why Sportsbooks Charge Extra Juice Around Key Numbers

Sportsbooks know that key numbers are valuable, so they charge extra juice to buy across them.

Example:

• Standard: Ravens -7.5 at -110
• Buy to -7: -120 (small increase)
• Buy to -6.5: -130 (larger increase because crossing 7)

The jump from -110 to -130 reflects the real value of crossing the key number of 7.

Comparing Lines On and Off Key Numbers

On a key number:

• Cowboys -7 at -110
• Cowboys -6.5 at -110

Taking -6.5 at the same odds gives you a push instead of a loss if the Cowboys win by exactly 7. That is significant value.

Off a key number:

• Cowboys -5 at -110
• Cowboys -4.5 at -110

The difference is smaller because 5 is not a key number, so games rarely land on exactly 5.

When to Buy Points Across Key Numbers

Buying points means paying extra juice to move the spread in your favor. This can be valuable when crossing a key number, but it is rarely worth it when crossing non-key numbers.

Buying From -7.5 to -6.5 (Crossing 7)

This is one of the most common and valuable point buys in the NFL.

Example:

• Standard: Ravens -7.5 at -110
• Buy to -6.5 at -130

You are paying an extra 20 cents of juice to cross the key number of 7. If you believe the game will be close, this can be worth it because 7 is such a common margin.

When it makes sense:

• You think the game will be decided by one score
• The juice cost is -130 or less
• You want protection against a 7-point loss

When it does NOT make sense:

• You think the favorite will blow out the opponent
• The juice cost is too high (-140 or worse)

Buying From -3.5 to -2.5 (Crossing 3)

Crossing 3 is also valuable, but slightly less so than crossing 7 because the juice cost is often higher.

Example:

• Standard: Chiefs -3.5 at -110
• Buy to -2.5 at -135

You are paying 25 cents of juice to cross 3. This can be worth it in the right situation, but the cost is steep.

When it makes sense:

• The matchup is extremely close
• You think a field goal margin is likely
• The juice is -135 or less

Avoid Buying Across Non-Key Numbers

Buying from -5.5 to -4.5 costs juice but does not cross a meaningful number. Games rarely land on exactly 5, so you are paying for value you are not getting.

General rule:

• Buy across 3 or 7 when the juice is reasonable
• Avoid buying across 4, 5, 6, 8, or 9

For more on buying and selling points, see our Alternative Spreads Guide.

When to Sell Points Through Key Numbers

Selling points means moving the spread against your favor in exchange for better odds. This is riskier but can offer value in the right situations.

Selling From -6.5 to -7.5 (Selling Through 7)

Selling through 7 is very risky because you are giving up the key number.

Example:

• Standard: 49ers -6.5 at -110
• Sell to -7.5 at +100

You are getting plus-money odds, but you now lose if the 49ers win by exactly 7 instead of pushing. This is rarely worth it unless you are very confident in a blowout.

Selling Away From Key Numbers

Selling points is less risky when you are moving away from key numbers.

Example:

• Standard: Bills -5.5 at -110
• Sell to -6.5 at +100

You are selling from 5.5 to 6.5, which does not cross a key number. If you believe the Bills will win by 10+, this can offer value.

General rule:

• Avoid selling through 3 or 7 unless you are very confident
• Selling away from key numbers is less risky
• Make sure the odds improvement justifies the extra risk

Key Numbers in the NBA (Less Rigid, But Still Meaningful)

The NBA has less rigid key numbers than the NFL because scoring is more continuous. However, certain margins still appear more often than others.

Most Common NBA Margins

Approximate frequency:

• 5 points (~4-5%)
• 6 points (~4%)
• 7 points (~3-4%)
• 2, 3, 4, 8 (also common)

Because the NBA is higher-scoring and faster-paced, margins are more spread out than in the NFL.

Late-Game Fouling and Spread Volatility

In the NBA, late-game fouling can cause spreads to swing wildly in the final minutes. A team winning by 10 can end up winning by 5 after intentional fouls and free throws.

This creates volatility and makes key numbers less predictable than in the NFL.

Tips for NBA spread betting:

• Key numbers around 5-7 are somewhat meaningful
• Be prepared for late swings caused by fouling
• Line shop aggressively because small edges compound

Historical Data: Margin of Victory Distribution (NFL)

Understanding how often different margins occur helps you see why key numbers matter.

Margin	Approximate Frequency
3 points	~9-10%
7 points	~3-4%
10 points	~2-3%
4 points	~2%
6 points	~2%
1, 2, 5, 8, 9 points	~1-1.5% each

This data shows why 3 and 7 are so important: they occur far more often than neighboring numbers.

How to Use Key Numbers in Your Betting Strategy

Key numbers should inform your decision-making but should not be the only factor.

Line Shopping With Key Numbers in Mind

When comparing lines across sportsbooks, pay extra attention to key numbers.

Example:

• Sportsbook A: Cowboys -7 at -110
• Sportsbook B: Cowboys -7.5 at -110

Taking -7 instead of -7.5 at the same odds gives you a push instead of a loss if the Cowboys win by exactly 7.

When to Buy, Sell, or Take the Standard Line

Buy across a key number when:

• The juice cost is reasonable (-130 or less)
• You think the game will be close
• You want protection against the key number

Sell through a key number when:

• You are very confident in a blowout
• The odds improvement is significant
• You understand and accept the added risk

Take the standard line when:

• The line is already on or near a key number
• The juice cost to buy is too high
• You have no strong opinion on the margin

Incorporating Key Numbers Into Teaser Strategy

Teasers let you move spreads across key numbers in exchange for lower payouts. Wong teasers are a specific strategy that focuses on crossing 3 and 7 in low-total NFL games.

Example:

• Leg 1: Favorite at -8.5, tease to -2.5 (crosses 7 and 3)
• Leg 2: Underdog at +1.5, tease to +7.5 (crosses 3 and 7)

For more on teaser strategy, see our Teaser Betting Guide and Wong Teaser Strategy Guide.

Common Mistakes With Key Numbers

Buying Points Across Non-Key Numbers

Buying from -5.5 to -4.5 costs juice but does not cross a meaningful number. This is one of the most common and costly mistakes.

Treating All Half-Point Differences as Equal

Not all half-point differences are equal. Moving from -7 to -6.5 is far more valuable than moving from -5 to -4.5.

Ignoring Key Numbers When Line Shopping

Always compare lines with key numbers in mind. Taking -7 instead of -7.5 at the same odds is free value.

Over-Relying on Key Numbers

Key numbers are one factor among many. Matchups, injuries, rest, and situational factors all matter more than the spread number alone.

FAQs: Key Numbers in Spread Betting

What are key numbers in point spread betting?

Key numbers are specific margins of victory that occur more frequently than others. In the NFL, 3, 7, and 10 are the most common margins because of how football is scored.

Why is 3 the most common margin in the NFL?

Field goals are worth 3 points, and many close games are decided by a single field goal. Historically, about 9-10% of NFL games end with a 3-point margin.

Why is 7 important in NFL spreads?

Touchdowns with extra points are worth 7 points, so games where one team scores one more touchdown often end with a 7-point margin. Roughly 3-4% of games end on 7.

When should I buy points across a key number?

Buy points across a key number (like 3 or 7) when the juice cost is reasonable (typically -130 or less) and you believe the game will be close. Avoid buying across non-key numbers.

Are key numbers important in the NBA?

Key numbers are less rigid in the NBA than in the NFL, but margins around 5-7 points still occur more frequently than others. Late-game fouling creates volatility that makes key numbers less predictable.

What is the hook in point spread betting?

The hook refers to the half-point on spreads like -7.5 or +3.5. Around key numbers, the hook is especially valuable because it can be the difference between a win, loss, or push.

Should I always take spreads on key numbers?

Not always. Key numbers should inform your decision, but matchups, injuries, and situational factors matter more. Use key numbers as one tool in your overall strategy.

How do key numbers affect teaser betting?

Teasers let you move spreads across key numbers (like 3 and 7) in exchange for lower payouts. Wong teasers are a specific strategy focused on crossing these key numbers in NFL games.