Common Point Spread Mistakes: What to Avoid & How to Fix Them

Point spread betting looks simple on the surface, but most bettors make costly mistakes that drain their bankroll over time. These errors are not obvious, and they often feel like bad luck rather than bad process. The truth is that small mistakes compound quickly when you are betting against a vig, and fixing them is one of the fastest ways to improve your long-term results.

This guide walks through the most common point spread betting mistakes that trip up both beginners and experienced bettors. For each mistake, we will explain why it happens, what it costs you, and how to fix it. You will learn about ignoring the vig, chasing steam, overbetting favorites, misunderstanding key numbers, skipping line shopping, and more.

By the end, you should have a clear checklist of what to avoid and how to approach spreads with discipline and strategy. Sports betting should always be optional and affordable, so if you choose to bet, understand the risks first.

Mistake 1: Ignoring the Vig (Juice) and Break-Even Rates

The vig or juice is the fee sportsbooks charge for taking your bet, and it is built into the odds. At standard -110 odds, you risk more than you stand to win, which means you need to win more than 50% of your bets just to break even.

Why This Mistake Happens

Most bettors focus on picking winners and forget that the vig eats into their profits. Winning 50% of your bets feels like breaking even, but at -110 odds, you are actually losing money.

What It Costs You

At -110 odds, you need to win 52.4% of your bets to break even over the long term. If you win 50% of 100 bets at $110 each:

• Total risked: $11,000
• Total won: 50 wins × $100 = $5,000
• Total lost: 50 losses × $110 = $5,500
• Net result: -$500

That $500 loss is the vig. Over time, it compounds quickly.

How to Fix It

1. Understand your break-even rate: At -110, you need 52.4% wins. At -105, you need 51.2%. At -115, you need 53.5%.
2. Line shop aggressively: Getting -105 instead of -110 on the same spread lowers your break-even rate and improves your long-term profit.
3. Track your results: Keep a spreadsheet of every bet so you can see your actual win rate and whether you are beating the vig.

For more on vig and break-even rates, see our Point Spread Betting Strategy Guide.

Mistake 2: Not Line Shopping Across Multiple Sportsbooks

Line shopping means comparing spreads and odds across different sportsbooks before placing your bet. Most bettors skip this step and bet at the first book they open, which costs them money over time.

Why This Mistake Happens

It feels like extra work to check multiple books, and many bettors do not realize how much value they are leaving on the table. Small differences in spreads or odds seem insignificant in the moment.

What It Costs You

Example:

• Sportsbook A: Cowboys -7 at -110
• Sportsbook B: Cowboys -6.5 at -110

If you want to bet the Cowboys, taking -6.5 instead of -7 gives you an extra half-point of cushion at the same price. In a close game that lands on 7, that half-point is the difference between a win and a loss.

Another example:

• Sportsbook A: Cowboys -7 at -110
• Sportsbook B: Cowboys -7 at -105

Same spread, but Sportsbook B charges less vig. Over hundreds of bets, that difference compounds into meaningful profit or loss.

How to Fix It

1. Open accounts at multiple legal sportsbooks in your state
2. Check odds at 2-3 books before placing every bet
3. Use odds comparison tools if available
4. Always take the best line and odds available

Line shopping is one of the simplest and most effective ways to improve your long-term results with almost no extra effort.

Mistake 3: Chasing Steam and Public Money

Chasing steam means betting on a side because the line moved in that direction, assuming sharp money knows something you do not. Chasing public money means betting on the popular side because most people are taking it.

Why This Mistake Happens

Line movement feels like insider information. If a line moves from -7 to -8, many bettors assume sharp bettors know something and jump on the moving line. Similarly, if 70% of bets are on one side, it feels safe to follow the crowd.

What It Costs You

By the time you see the line move, you are often getting worse value than the sharp bettors who moved it. You are buying high instead of getting in early.

Chasing public money is equally dangerous because the public tends to overvalue favorites, popular teams, and overs. Books know this and often shade lines to account for public bias.

How to Fix It

1. Have your own opinion before you check line movement
2. Understand that not all line movement is sharp money: Sometimes it is just public overreaction
3. Look for reverse line movement: When the line moves opposite the public betting direction, that can signal sharp action
4. Do not bet on a game just because the line moved: Only bet when you have a clear reason to believe one side offers value

For more on fading the public and understanding line movement, see our Point Spread Betting Strategy Guide.

Mistake 4: Ignoring Key Numbers in NFL Spreads

Key numbers are margins of victory that occur more frequently than others. In the NFL, 3, 7, and 10 are the most common margins because of how football is scored. Ignoring key numbers when comparing lines or buying points is a costly mistake.

Why This Mistake Happens

Many bettors do not understand the significance of key numbers, or they treat all half-point differences as equal. A move from -6.5 to -7 feels the same as a move from -4.5 to -5, but it is not.

What It Costs You

Example:

• Buying from -6.5 to -6 costs extra juice but does not cross a key number
• Buying from -7.5 to -6.5 costs extra juice but crosses the key number of 7

The first buy is almost never worth it. The second buy might be worth it in the right situation.

Another example:

• Sportsbook A: Cowboys -7 at -110
• Sportsbook B: Cowboys -7.5 at -110

If you want to bet the Cowboys, taking -7 at the same odds gives you a push instead of a loss if they win by exactly 7. That is significant value in a sport where 7 is a common margin.

How to Fix It

1. Learn the key numbers: 3, 7, and 10 in the NFL; less rigid in NBA and other sports
2. Pay extra attention when spreads cross key numbers
3. Buy points across key numbers when the juice cost is reasonable
4. Avoid buying points across non-key numbers like 4, 5, 6, or 9

For a detailed breakdown of key numbers, see our Key Numbers in Spread Betting Guide.

Mistake 5: Overbetting Favorites and Popular Teams

Most recreational bettors prefer betting on favorites and popular teams. This creates market inefficiency where favorites and public teams are often overvalued, and underdogs offer better value.

Why This Mistake Happens

Betting on favorites feels safer. It is easier to imagine the Chiefs or Lakers winning than to trust a weaker team to stay competitive. Popular teams also get more media attention, which makes them feel like better bets.

What It Costs You

When too many people bet on the favorite, sportsbooks shade the line to account for public bias. This means you are often getting worse value on favorites than the true probability suggests.

Example:

• True line might be Cowboys -6
• Public hammers the Cowboys
• Sportsbook moves the line to Cowboys -7 to balance action
• Now you are paying an extra point to bet the public side

Over time, consistently overbetting favorites and public teams leads to poor long-term results.

How to Fix It

1. Track your performance on favorites vs underdogs: You might be surprised to see you lose money on favorites
2. Look for value on underdogs when the public is heavily on the favorite
3. Ask yourself if you are betting on a team because you think they will win or because you want them to win
4. Focus on value, not narrative: The best bet is often the boring, unpopular side

Mistake 6: Bad Bankroll Management and Overbetting

Bankroll management is what keeps betting sustainable and fun over time. Overbetting means risking too much of your bankroll on a single bet or a single day, which leads to going broke during losing streaks.

Why This Mistake Happens

When you are confident in a bet or trying to recover from losses, it is tempting to bet more than your usual stake. This feels like the smart move in the moment but is almost always a mistake.

What It Costs You

Example:

• Bankroll: $1,000
• Normal stake: $20 per bet (2%)
• After a bad week, you bet $200 on one game (20%)
• You lose, and now your bankroll is $800
• Your normal stake should now be $16, but you are chasing and bet $300
• You lose again, and now your bankroll is $500

This spiral is how most bettors go broke. Overbetting amplifies variance and makes it impossible to recover from normal losing streaks.

How to Fix It

1. Set a unit size as 1-2% of your total bankroll
2. Never bet more than 5% on any single wager
3. Do not increase your stake size to chase losses
4. Recalculate your unit size periodically as your bankroll grows or shrinks
5. Set deposit limits and loss limits at your sportsbook to enforce discipline

For more on bankroll management, see our Point Spread Betting Strategy Guide.

Mistake 7: Betting Too Many Games (Lack of Selectivity)

Many bettors feel pressure to have action on every game, especially on big slates like NFL Sunday or March Madness. Betting too many games dilutes your edge and forces you to bet on spots where you have no real opinion.

Why This Mistake Happens

Watching games is more fun when you have action on them. FOMO (fear of missing out) makes you feel like you need to bet every game to maximize your chances of winning.

What It Costs You

When you bet on games where you have no edge, you are just paying the vig over and over. The more bets you make without a real edge, the closer you get to the expected loss rate based on the vig.

Example:

• You have strong opinions on 3 games this week
• You also bet on 7 other games because you want action
• Those 7 bets have no edge, so you win roughly 50% at -110 odds
• Over time, those 7 bets lose money to the vig

How to Fix It

1. Only bet when you have a clear reason to believe one side offers value
2. Track which games you had strong opinions on vs which were just for action
3. Set a maximum number of bets per day or per week to enforce discipline
4. Remember that watching a game without action is always an option

Quality over quantity is the rule. Fewer bets with higher conviction beat more bets with no edge.

Mistake 8: Misunderstanding Pushes and Half-Points

A push happens when the final score lands exactly on the spread, and your stake is returned with no win or loss. Many bettors do not understand when pushes can happen and how the half-point (hook) affects outcomes.

Why This Mistake Happens

New bettors often do not realize that pushes only happen on whole-number spreads, or they do not understand the value of the half-point around key numbers.

What It Costs You

Example:

• You bet Cowboys -7 at -110
• Cowboys win by exactly 7
• Your bet pushes, and you get your stake back
• If you had taken Cowboys -6.5 at -110, you would have won

The difference between -7 and -6.5 at the same odds is massive in games that land on 7 (a key number in the NFL).

How to Fix It

1. Understand that pushes only happen on whole-number spreads
2. Half-point spreads (hooks) eliminate pushes
3. Pay extra attention to spreads on or near key numbers (3, 7, 10 in NFL)
4. Line shop to find the half-point that gives you the best value

Mistake 9: Not Tracking Results and Learning From Mistakes

Most bettors do not keep detailed records of their bets, which makes it impossible to identify patterns, learn from mistakes, or improve over time.

Why This Mistake Happens

Tracking feels like work, and it is easy to remember your wins and forget your losses. Many bettors rely on memory or their sportsbook's bet history instead of keeping their own spreadsheet.

What It Costs You

Without data, you cannot see:

• Which sports or bet types you are profitable in
• Whether you are winning or losing on favorites vs underdogs
• How line shopping or key numbers affect your results
• Your actual win rate vs your break-even rate

Example:

• You think you are doing well because you remember your big wins
• When you finally track your results, you discover you are down $800 over 3 months

How to Fix It

1. Keep a simple spreadsheet with every bet: Date, sport, team, spread, odds, stake, result
2. Calculate your win rate, units won/lost, and return on investment
3. Review your data monthly to identify patterns and areas for improvement
4. Use tracking apps if you do not want to maintain a spreadsheet

Tracking is the foundation of long-term improvement. If you are not tracking, you are not serious about getting better.

Mistake 10: Emotional Betting and Chasing Losses

Emotional betting means making decisions based on feelings instead of logic. Chasing losses means increasing your stake size to try to recover quickly after a losing streak.

Why This Mistake Happens

Losing feels bad, and it is natural to want to get your money back as quickly as possible. After a bad beat or a frustrating loss, it is tempting to fire a bigger bet on the next game to make up for it.

What It Costs You

Chasing losses leads to overbetting, poor decision-making, and tilt. It amplifies variance and turns normal losing streaks into catastrophic losses.

Example:

• You lose 3 bets in a row totaling $150
• You bet $300 on the next game to try to get even
• You lose, and now you are down $450 instead of $150

This is the fastest way to blow up your bankroll.

How to Fix It

1. Set loss limits at your sportsbook and stick to them
2. Take a break after a losing streak instead of chasing
3. Never increase your stake size to recover losses
4. Focus on process, not results: Even good bets lose sometimes
5. If you feel emotional or tilted, step away from betting

Betting should be optional and fun. If it feels stressful or desperate, it is time to take a break.

FAQs: Common Point Spread Mistakes

What is the biggest mistake new spread bettors make?

The biggest mistake is not understanding the vig and break-even rates. Many new bettors think winning 50% of their bets is enough, but at -110 odds, you need to win 52.4% just to break even.

Why is line shopping important?

Line shopping means comparing spreads and odds across multiple sportsbooks before placing your bet. Small differences in lines or odds compound over time into meaningful profit or loss. It is one of the simplest ways to improve your results.

What are key numbers in NFL spreads?

Key numbers are margins that occur more frequently than others. In the NFL, 3, 7, and 10 are the most common margins because of how football is scored. Spreads that cross these numbers are more valuable than spreads that do not.

Should I always bet favorites?

No. Most recreational bettors prefer betting on favorites, which creates market inefficiency. Favorites and popular teams are often overvalued, and underdogs offer better value.

What is chasing losses?

Chasing losses means increasing your stake size to try to recover quickly after losing. This leads to overbetting, poor decisions, and is the fastest way to blow up your bankroll.

How much should I bet on each spread?

Bet a small percentage of your total bankroll on each wager, typically 1-2% per bet. Never bet more than 5% on any single wager.

What happens if the spread pushes?

If the final score lands exactly on the spread, the bet is graded as a push and your stake is returned with no win or loss. Pushes only happen on whole-number spreads. Half-point spreads eliminate pushes.

Should I track my betting results?

Yes. Tracking is essential for identifying patterns, learning from mistakes, and improving over time. Without data, you cannot see where you are profitable or where you are losing money.