Futures Betting Guide: How to Bet on Futures and Find Long-Term Value

Futures betting lets you wager on the outcome of events that will be decided weeks or months from now. Instead of betting on tonight's game, you might bet before the season starts on which team will win the Super Bowl, who will take home the NBA MVP award, or whether a team will go over or under their projected win total.

These bets are among the most popular in all of sports betting, and for good reason. They offer the chance at large payouts from relatively small stakes, keep you engaged across an entire season, and reward bettors who do their homework before the general public catches on. They also require patience, a different bankroll strategy, and an understanding of how odds shift over time.

This guide covers everything you need to know about futures betting: how the odds work, the types of futures bets available, strategies for finding value, and the mistakes you want to avoid.

What Is Futures Betting?

A futures bet is any wager placed on an outcome that will not be determined until a later date, typically weeks or months in the future. The most common examples are championship winners, but the category extends to division titles, individual awards, season statistics, and more.

What separates futures from standard game-day bets is the time horizon. When you bet the moneyline on a Thursday Night Football game, you know the result in a few hours. When you bet on the Super Bowl winner in August, your money is tied up for roughly six months. That extended timeline creates both the appeal and the challenge of futures betting.

Sportsbooks post futures odds well in advance, often before a season starts. As games are played, injuries occur, and rosters change, the odds adjust to reflect the new reality. A team that opens at +2000 to win the championship might move to +800 after a strong start, or drift out to +5000 after losing key players.

The odds you lock in at the time of your bet stay fixed. If you took a team at +2000 and they are now +800, your ticket still pays at the original +2000 price. This is why timing matters so much in futures markets.

How Futures Odds Work

Futures odds are displayed in American format at US sportsbooks. A team listed at +1500 to win the Super Bowl means a $100 bet would return $1,500 in profit plus your original stake if that team wins. A heavy favorite might be listed at +300 or even shorter.

Implied Probability

Every set of odds corresponds to an implied probability. A team at +1500 has an implied probability of roughly 6.3 percent. A team at +300 carries an implied probability of about 25 percent. Understanding this conversion helps you evaluate whether the odds offer genuine value relative to how likely you believe the outcome is.

The Vig on Futures

Futures markets carry a higher vig (the sportsbook's built-in margin) than most single-game bets. On a standard game spread, the vig might total 4 to 5 percent across both sides. On a futures market with 30 or more possible outcomes, the combined implied probabilities often add up to 130 percent or more, meaning the sportsbook is keeping a larger cut.

This higher margin is the tradeoff for the large potential payouts. Successful futures bettors account for this by being selective and targeting spots where they believe the true probability significantly exceeds the implied probability.

How Odds Move

Futures odds are constantly in motion. They respond to:

• Game results and team performance streaks
• Injuries to key players
• Trades, free agent signings, and roster moves
• Coaching changes
• Public betting patterns and sharp money

Early in the season, odds are based largely on preseason projections and public perception. As real results accumulate, the market becomes more efficient, which is why many experienced bettors place their futures early when they believe mispricing is most likely.

Types of Futures Bets

Futures markets extend far beyond picking a championship winner. Here are the main categories available at most US sportsbooks.

Championship Futures

The most recognizable futures bets. You pick which team will win it all:

Sport	Championship	Typical Market Opening
NFL	Super Bowl Winner	February (after previous Super Bowl)
NBA	NBA Championship	June (after Finals conclude)
MLB	World Series Winner	November (after previous World Series)
NHL	Stanley Cup Winner	June (after previous Cup)
College Football	CFP National Champion	January (after previous title game)
College Basketball	NCAA Tournament Champion	April (after previous tournament)

These markets attract the most betting volume and typically offer the widest range of odds, from short favorites around +300 to long shots at +50000 or more.

Conference and Division Winners

Rather than picking the overall champion, you can bet on which team will win their conference or division. These bets generally offer shorter odds than championship futures but have a higher probability of cashing.

For example, betting on a team to win the NFC is a smaller pool (16 teams) than picking them to win the Super Bowl (32 teams). The payout is lower, but so is the variance.

Season Win Totals

Sportsbooks set a projected win total for each team, and you bet whether the team will go over or under that number. An NFL team might be set at 9.5 wins, and you decide whether they finish with 10 or more wins (over) or 9 or fewer (under).

Win totals are appealing because they do not require a team to win a championship. You just need them to perform better or worse than the sportsbook's projection. This is one of the most popular futures markets among experienced bettors because the analysis is more straightforward: evaluate roster changes, schedule strength, coaching staff, and health outlook.

Player Award Futures

Individual awards like MVP, Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, Defensive Player of the Year, and the Heisman Trophy all have active futures markets. These bets hinge on individual performance plus narrative factors, since awards are voted on by media members who are influenced by storylines and team success.

A player on a 12-4 team will almost always receive more MVP consideration than a player with comparable statistics on a 7-10 team. Understanding how voter behavior shapes these markets is critical.

Player Stat Props

Season-long statistical props allow you to bet on whether a player will exceed a projected stat line. Examples include a quarterback throwing over or under 4,000.5 passing yards, a running back scoring over or under 10.5 touchdowns, or a pitcher recording over or under 200.5 strikeouts.

These markets require deep knowledge of individual players, their roles, and the offensive or defensive systems they operate in.

Coaching and Miscellaneous Futures

Some sportsbooks offer niche futures such as:

• First head coach to be fired
• Number one overall draft pick
• Where a free agent will sign
• Team to make or miss the playoffs

These tend to carry higher vig and less liquidity, but they can be entertaining and occasionally offer value if you have a strong opinion.

Futures Betting by Sport

Each sport has its own futures dynamics based on season length, playoff structure, and the role of variance.

NFL Futures

The NFL is the most popular futures betting market in the United States. With only 17 regular season games and a single-elimination playoff, variance is high and upsets are frequent. This means long shots cash more often than in sports with longer series.

Super Bowl futures dominate the market, but conference winners, division winners, and MVP are also heavily bet. NFL win totals are particularly popular because the short season makes every game significant relative to the projected number.

The NFL playoff structure also creates natural hedging opportunities. If you hold a Super Bowl futures ticket on a team that reaches the conference championship game, you can bet the other side to guarantee a profit regardless of outcome. For more on navigating playoff betting strategy, see our dedicated guide.

NBA Futures

NBA futures are defined by star power and top-heavy talent distribution. Championship odds are heavily concentrated among a handful of contenders, meaning favorites often deliver at shorter prices. The best value in NBA futures often comes from identifying the next breakout team before the market adjusts.

The 82-game regular season provides extensive data, but the NBA playoffs (a best-of-seven format) heavily favor the better team. Upsets are rarer in the NBA postseason than in any other major sport, which means long-shot championship futures rarely cash.

NBA MVP is one of the most popular individual futures markets. Narrative plays an outsized role: voters reward team record, individual counting stats, and compelling storylines. Tracking early-season performance and voter tendencies can uncover value.

MLB Futures

Baseball has the longest season (162 games), which reduces variance in win totals but increases it in the playoffs, where a short series format allows any hot team to advance. This creates an interesting dynamic: win total bets are relatively predictable, but World Series futures are among the hardest to hit in sports.

MLB win totals are a staple of the futures market. Because of the long season, projections are based on deep roster analysis, pitching rotations, bullpen depth, and division strength. Bettors who study these factors carefully can find consistent value.

Player award futures like AL and NL MVP and the Cy Young Award are also popular, with performance more measurable through advanced statistics than in most other sports.

College Sports Futures

College sports futures offer unique value because the markets are less efficient. Sportsbooks devote fewer resources to pricing college teams, and public perception often lags behind roster changes, transfer portal movement, and coaching hires.

March Madness futures are especially popular, with bettors picking a national champion from a field of 68 teams. The single-elimination format makes upsets common, and long shots have a realistic path to a championship. College Football Playoff futures have grown significantly with the expanded playoff format, offering more betting opportunities and more potential value.

Futures Betting Strategy

Finding consistent value in futures markets requires a disciplined approach. Here are the most effective strategies.

Timing Your Bets

When you place a futures bet matters as much as what you bet on. Each timing window has distinct advantages:

Timing	Advantage	Risk
Preseason (early)	Best prices before public money sharpens the market	Injuries and roster moves can negate your analysis
Early season	Market overreacts to small sample sizes, creating value on slow starters	May be catching a falling knife on a genuinely bad team
Mid-season	Clearer picture of contenders, can target teams with favorable remaining schedules	Most value already priced in, lower payouts
Late season/playoffs	High conviction bets on known contenders	Short odds limit profit potential

Many successful futures bettors place the majority of their action in the preseason and early-season windows, when mispricing is most common and payouts are highest.

Finding Value Through Contrarian Thinking

Public money tends to flood toward popular teams, recent winners, and star-studded rosters. This compresses the odds on public favorites and inflates the odds on overlooked teams. Contrarian bettors seek value on the other side by identifying:

• Teams with significant roster improvements that the public has not fully priced in
• Defending champions whose odds are artificially short due to recency bias
• Small-market teams with strong underlying metrics but low national visibility
• Teams recovering from injury that depressed the previous season but now return key players

The goal is not to be contrarian for its own sake, but to find spots where public perception diverges from realistic probability.

The Portfolio Approach

Rather than putting all of your futures bankroll on a single team, many experienced bettors spread their action across multiple positions. This mirrors an investment portfolio strategy where diversification reduces risk.

For example, instead of betting $200 on one Super Bowl pick, you might place $50 each on four different teams at different price points. If any one of them comes through, you profit. This approach smooths out the inherent volatility of futures betting and increases your chances of holding a live ticket deep into the season.

You can also combine championship futures with related bets like parlays involving those same teams, though this increases your overall exposure to a single outcome.

Hedging Futures Bets

Hedging is the practice of placing a bet against your original position to lock in a guaranteed profit or minimize a potential loss. Futures bets create natural hedging opportunities because their value changes over time.

Suppose you bet $50 on the Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl at +1200 (potential profit: $600). If they reach the Super Bowl, the opposing team might be -150 on the moneyline. You could bet $300 on the opponent, guaranteeing yourself a profit regardless of the game outcome.

When to hedge comes down to personal preference and risk tolerance. Some bettors always hedge to secure profit. Others prefer to let the original ticket ride for the full payout. There is no universally correct answer, but understanding hedging mechanics gives you more options.

Bankroll Allocation for Futures

Because futures bets tie up your money for extended periods, you should allocate only a portion of your total bankroll to them. A common approach among experienced bettors is dedicating 5 to 15 percent of their total bankroll to futures, with no single futures bet exceeding 1 to 2 percent.

This prevents futures bets from consuming capital you need for regular game-day wagering. It also limits the damage from the inevitable losing streaks, since even strong futures bettors lose the majority of their championship picks. Disciplined bankroll management is essential when your money may be locked up for months.

Advantages and Disadvantages of Futures Bets

Before committing to futures betting, understand what you are signing up for.

Advantages

• Large potential payouts. A $50 bet at +2000 returns $1,050 including your stake. Few bet types offer this kind of upside from a small wager.
• Season-long engagement. Holding a futures ticket gives you a rooting interest across an entire season, not just a single game.
• Early value opportunities. Before the season starts, odds are based on projections and public sentiment, which often differ from reality. Sharp bettors exploit these gaps.
• Hedging flexibility. As your pick advances, you can hedge to lock in profit without waiting for the final result.

Disadvantages

• Capital is locked up. Money bet on futures is unavailable for other wagers until the bet settles, which may be months away.
• Higher vig. The sportsbook's margin on futures is larger than on standard game bets, so you need to be more accurate to overcome the house edge.
• High difficulty. Predicting outcomes over months is inherently harder than predicting a single game. The number of variables that can change is enormous.
• No partial credit. If your team makes it to the championship game and loses, your bet loses in full (unless you hedged).

How to Place a Futures Bet

If you are new to futures betting, here is the step-by-step process.

Step 1: Choose a legal sportsbook. Make sure you are using a regulated sportsbook in your state. All major legal US sportsbooks offer futures markets.

Step 2: Navigate to the futures section. Look for a tab labeled "Futures" or "Outrights" within the sport you want to bet on. Some books also label these as "Season Props" or "Awards."

Step 3: Compare odds across books. Futures odds can vary significantly between sportsbooks. A team might be +900 at one book and +1200 at another. Shopping for the best price is especially important in futures markets where the vig is higher.

Step 4: Place your bet. Enter your stake and confirm the wager. Your ticket will reflect the odds locked in at the time of the bet, regardless of future odds movement.

Step 5: Track and manage. Monitor your team's or player's progress throughout the season. As the finish line approaches, evaluate whether hedging makes sense to secure a return.

Futures Bet Examples With Real Odds

Here are examples showing how futures bets work in practice.

Example 1: NFL Super Bowl Futures (Preseason)

A bettor evaluates early-season Super Bowl odds:

Team	Preseason Odds	Implied Probability	$50 Bet Profit
Kansas City Chiefs	+600	14.3%	$300
Philadelphia Eagles	+900	10.0%	$450
Detroit Lions	+1200	7.7%	$600
Houston Texans	+2500	3.8%	$1,250

The bettor believes the Eagles and Texans are undervalued based on offseason moves and places $50 on each, spreading the risk across two positions.

Example 2: NBA MVP Futures (Mid-Season)

After 30 games, a standout player is dominating but plays for a smaller-market team. The odds have shortened from +2000 to +500 as the season progressed, but the bettor locked in +2000 early and now holds a ticket worth significantly more than the original wager. At this point, they could hedge or hold for the full payout.

Example 3: MLB Win Total Over/Under

A sportsbook sets the Los Angeles Dodgers win total at 96.5. After analyzing their rotation depth, lineup additions, and a favorable division schedule, a bettor places $100 on the over at -110. If the Dodgers win 97 or more games, the bet returns $190.91 total ($90.91 profit). This bet settles at the end of the regular season.

Common Futures Betting Mistakes

Avoiding these pitfalls will improve your long-term results.

Betting too large a percentage of your bankroll. Futures bets fail far more often than they succeed. Risking 10 percent or more of your bankroll on a single championship pick leaves you vulnerable to a painful loss with money tied up for months.

Ignoring the vig. The higher margin on futures means the odds already work against you. A bet needs to overcome not just the probability hurdle but also the sportsbook's edge. Always compare odds across multiple books.

Chasing extreme long shots without analysis. A team at +10000 is priced that way for a reason. While upsets happen, consistently betting long shots without a clear analytical edge is a losing strategy over time.

Not shopping odds across sportsbooks. Futures odds vary more between books than game-day odds. The difference between +800 and +1200 on the same team is massive. Always check multiple sportsbooks before placing a futures bet.

Failing to hedge when the opportunity arises. If your futures pick reaches the championship game, you have the option to guarantee a profit by betting the other side. Not every situation calls for a hedge, but refusing to consider it means you are leaving money on the table in some scenarios.

Overreacting to early-season results. A team that starts 1-3 might still be a legitimate contender. Conversely, a 4-0 start does not guarantee a championship. Experienced expected value bettors evaluate long-term projections rather than reacting to small sample sizes.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a futures bet in sports betting?

A futures bet is a wager on an outcome that will be determined at a later date, usually weeks or months away. Common examples include picking a Super Bowl champion before the season starts, betting on the NBA MVP, or wagering on a team's season win total. The odds are set in advance and may change over time, but the odds on your ticket remain locked at the price when you placed the bet.

When is the best time to place a futures bet?

The best value is generally available before the season starts or in the early weeks when the market is least efficient. Sportsbooks rely on preseason projections and public sentiment during this window, and teams that improve quietly through roster moves or coaching changes are often underpriced. As the season progresses and more data is available, odds become sharper and value diminishes.

Can you cash out a futures bet early?

Many sportsbooks now offer a cash-out feature that lets you settle a futures bet before the final outcome is determined. The cash-out amount reflects the current odds and remaining probability. Alternatively, you can manually hedge by placing a bet on the opposing outcome. For example, if your team reaches the championship game, you can bet the other side to lock in a guaranteed profit.

Are futures bets profitable in the long run?

Futures bets can be profitable for disciplined bettors who consistently identify mispriced odds and practice sound bankroll management. However, the higher vig on futures markets and the difficulty of predicting outcomes over long time horizons make them harder to beat than standard game bets. Most recreational bettors lose money on futures. Profitability requires edge identification, line shopping, and strict bankroll discipline.

How much of my bankroll should I bet on futures?

A common recommendation among experienced bettors is to allocate 5 to 15 percent of your total sports betting bankroll to futures. Within that allocation, no single futures bet should represent more than 1 to 2 percent of your total bankroll. This approach ensures you have capital available for regular game-day betting while keeping meaningful exposure to the futures market.

What sports offer the best futures betting opportunities?

All major US sports (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL) and college sports (football and basketball) offer active futures markets. The NFL is the most popular and liquid, while college sports often offer the most value because the markets are less efficient. Each sport has distinct characteristics: the NFL's short season favors upsets, the NBA's best-of-seven format favors chalk, and MLB's long season makes win totals more predictable than playoff outcomes.

Do my futures odds change after I place the bet?

No. The odds locked in at the time you place your bet remain fixed regardless of subsequent odds movement. If you bet on a team at +2000 and their odds shorten to +500 due to a strong start, your ticket still pays at +2000 if they win. This is why timing your entry is a crucial part of futures betting strategy.

What happens to my futures bet if a key player gets injured?

Your bet stands regardless of injuries unless the sportsbook's specific rules state otherwise. If you bet on a team to win the championship and their star quarterback tears an ACL in week three, your bet is still active. Some individual award futures (like MVP) may have specific rules about minimum games played, but team futures are almost never voided due to injury. This risk is a key reason to diversify your futures bets rather than concentrating on a single team.