Moneyline Betting Strategy: How to Bet Moneyline & Find Value in 2025

A moneyline bet asks you to pick the winner of a game. No point spreads, no totals, just who wins. This simplicity makes moneyline bets popular across the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, and soccer. However, picking winners is not enough. Smart moneyline betting requires understanding implied probability, finding value, managing your bankroll, and avoiding common traps.

This guide walks you through step-by-step moneyline betting strategy, from the basics to advanced concepts like expected value (EV), no-vig odds, parlays, and live betting. You will also get access to a free implied probability and no-vig calculator to help you make better decisions before you bet.

Remember: bet within your limits, 21+ only. Sports betting should be entertainment, not a way to make money or solve problems.

What Is a Moneyline Bet? (Fundamentals)

How Moneyline Odds Work (Positive vs Negative)

Moneyline odds in the US use American format with plus and minus signs. The minus sign indicates the favorite. The plus sign indicates the underdog.

Negative odds tell you how much you must risk to win 100 dollars. Example: -150 means you bet 150 dollars to win 100 dollars in profit. Your total return is 250 dollars (your 150 dollar stake plus 100 dollars profit).

Positive odds tell you how much profit you win from a 100 dollar stake. Example: +150 means a 100 dollar bet wins 150 dollars in profit. Your total return is 250 dollars (your 100 dollar stake plus 150 dollars profit).

The bigger the negative number, the heavier the favorite. A team at -300 is a bigger favorite than -150. The bigger the positive number, the bigger the underdog. A team at +250 is a bigger underdog than +120.

Here are a few common examples:

• -110: Risk 110 dollars to win 100 dollars (close to even)
• -200: Risk 200 dollars to win 100 dollars (strong favorite)
• +150: Risk 100 dollars to win 150 dollars (underdog)
• +300: Risk 100 dollars to win 300 dollars (big underdog)

For a full breakdown of how moneyline betting works, see our Moneyline Betting Guide.

What Does -110 Moneyline Mean? (Breakeven Example)

A -110 moneyline is the most common price in sports betting. It appears on both sides of many spread bets, and sometimes on close moneyline matchups.

At -110, you risk 110 dollars to win 100 dollars in profit. Your total return is 210 dollars.

The implied probability at -110 is about 52.38%. This is your breakeven point. If you win 52.38% of your -110 bets, you break even over time. If you win more than 52.38%, you profit. If you win less, you lose money.

Here is the math:

Implied probability = 110 / (110 + 100) = 110 / 210 = 52.38%

Even if you win about half your bets at -110, you can still lose money. That is why understanding odds and implied probability matters. The sportsbook edge (vig) means you need to win more than 50% to break even at -110.

For more on implied probability and how to calculate it, see our Moneyline Calculator Guide.

2-Way vs 3-Way Moneylines (NFL vs Soccer/NHL)

Most US sports use two-way moneylines. Each team gets a moneyline price, and the winner takes all. If the game ends in a tie (rare in most US sports), the bet is usually graded as a push and your stake is refunded.

Soccer and some NHL markets use three-way moneylines. These include three outcomes: Team A wins, Team B wins, or the match ends in a draw. If you bet Team A and the match ends 1-1, you lose.

Three-way moneylines cover regulation time only (90 minutes in soccer, 60 minutes in hockey). Draws are a real outcome you must account for. The implied probabilities are split three ways, so each outcome has lower implied probability than a two-way market.

Understanding whether you are betting a two-way or three-way moneyline is critical. Always check the market rules at your sportsbook before placing a bet.

How to Bet Moneyline Step by Step

Step 1: Choose a Game & Check the Moneyline

Log into a legal, regulated sportsbook operating in your state. Only bet with licensed operators. Avoid offshore or unlicensed sites.

Find the game you want to bet. Locate the moneyline market. Identify which side is the favorite (negative odds) and which is the underdog (positive odds).

Example: Kansas City Chiefs -180, Denver Broncos +155. Kansas City is the favorite. Denver is the underdog.

Step 2: Enter Stake & Review Payout

Click the moneyline odds for your chosen team. The selection appears in your bet slip.

Enter your stake. The bet slip shows your potential payout and profit. Double-check these numbers match your expectations.

Important: Bet slips do not show implied probability or no-vig fair odds. They only show payout and profit based on the odds offered.

Use our free moneyline calculator below to see implied probability and fair odds before you bet.

Step 3: Check the Math & Decide If the Bet Is Worth It

Before you confirm, ask yourself: Is this bet worth the price?

Compare what the sportsbook is pricing (implied probability) to what you think the true chances are. If you believe a team has a 60% chance to win but the moneyline implies only 55%, you may have found value. If you think they only have a 50% chance, the price is poor.

Soft RG guidance: Keep your bet size small while learning. Bet 1-2% of your bankroll on a single moneyline until you are confident in your process.

Common Moneyline Mistakes to Avoid

• Chasing big favorites without understanding risk: Betting -400 favorites regularly means one loss wipes out four wins. The math rarely works.
• Throwing too many short-priced favorites into huge parlays: Parlays compound risk. A five-leg parlay of -200 favorites might pay +500, but one upset kills the ticket.
• Ignoring line movement and injury news: Moneylines shift for a reason. Always check for late injuries, weather, or sharp money before betting.
• Comparing odds at only one book: One sportsbook might offer -140 while another offers -130. That 10-cent difference adds up over time.

For a step-by-step walkthrough of how to place a moneyline bet, see our Moneyline Betting Guide.

Free Moneyline Implied Probability & No-Vig Calculator

Use the calculator below to:

• Convert moneyline odds to implied probability
• See your potential payout and profit
• Calculate no-vig fair odds (advanced)
• Compare multiple sportsbooks' prices

Enter your stake and American odds (like -150 or +200). The calculator shows your total payout, profit, and implied probability instantly.

Run both favorites and underdogs through the calculator to understand the math. Compare prices from multiple sportsbooks to find the best value.

Finding Value: Implied Probability, No-Vig Odds & Positive EV

Converting Moneyline Odds to Implied Probability

Implied probability shows the likelihood of an outcome based on the odds offered. This helps you compare bets and spot value.

For negative odds:

Implied probability = absolute value of odds / (absolute value of odds + 100)

Example: -150 Implied probability = 150 / (150 + 100) = 150 / 250 = 60%

For positive odds:

Implied probability = 100 / (odds + 100)

Example: +150 Implied probability = 100 / (150 + 100) = 100 / 250 = 40%

Small line changes affect implied probability. A move from -110 to -115 changes implied probability from 52.4% to 53.5%. That 1.1% shift can make the difference between a good bet and a bad one.

Removing the Juice: No-Vig Moneyline Odds

Vig (short for vigorish) is the sportsbook margin built into odds. When you add up the implied probabilities for both sides of a moneyline, they total more than 100%. That extra percentage is the vig.

Example: A moneyline of -110 / -110 on both sides has implied probabilities of about 52.4% each. Add them together: 52.4% + 52.4% = 104.8%. The extra 4.8% is the vig.

Removing the vig gives you fair odds: what the odds would be in a perfectly efficient market with no sportsbook margin. Fair odds help you understand true value.

High-level explanation of how no-vig is derived:

1. Calculate implied probability for both sides
2. Add them together to get the total market probability
3. Divide each side's implied probability by the total to get fair probability
4. Convert fair probability back to odds

Example: Team A -110 (52.4%), Team B -110 (52.4%) Total = 104.8% Fair probability for Team A = 52.4% / 104.8% = 50% Fair odds for Team A = +100 (50% probability)

Comparing market implied probability to no-vig fair probability helps you see how much the sportsbook is charging.

When a Moneyline Bet Has Positive Expected Value (+EV)

Positive expected value (+EV) means the bet offers long-term profit potential. A bet is +EV when your estimated probability of winning is higher than the no-vig implied probability.

Example:

You assess that Team A has a 55% chance to win. The sportsbook offers Team A at +100 (50% implied probability, 50% no-vig fair probability). Your assessment (55%) is higher than the fair probability (50%). This is +EV.

Scenario where it is lower (bad bet):

You assess Team A has a 45% chance to win. The sportsbook offers Team A at +100 (50% implied probability). Your assessment (45%) is lower than the fair probability (50%). This is -EV. Do not bet.

If your research says Team A wins this game 55% of the time, but the no-vig implied probability is 50%, that is the type of spot value bettors look for.

Line shopping: Always compare prices across multiple sportsbooks. One book might offer -140 while another offers -130. Betting the better price improves your EV over time.

For more on closing line value (CLV) and advanced EV concepts, see our odds comparison guides (coming soon).

Moneyline Betting Strategy by Situation

Betting Moneyline Favorites: Risk, Reward & Bankroll Impact

Moneyline favorites offer high win rates but small returns. Betting heavy favorites regularly can lead to net losses despite winning most bets.

Example: You bet five games at -250 (71.4% implied probability). You risk 250 dollars per game to win 100 dollars profit. Total risked: 1,250 dollars.

If you win 4 out of 5 (80% win rate, above the breakeven of 71.4%):

• Wins: 4 x 100 = 400 dollars profit
• Losses: 1 x 250 = 250 dollars lost
• Net profit: 400 - 250 = 150 dollars

You won 80% of your bets but only made 150 dollars on 1,250 dollars risked (12% return). One extra loss would have resulted in a net loss.

Provide clear, conservative unit size guidance:

• Bet 1-2% of your bankroll on heavy favorites
• Never go all-in on a favorite, no matter how safe it looks
• Track your results to see if favorites are profitable for you long-term

RG message: Avoid making heavy favorites your only strategy. Upsets happen in every sport, and one bad loss can wipe out weeks of profits.

Betting Moneyline Underdogs: Finding Plus-Money Spots

Underdogs can be profitable long-term even with low hit rates because the payouts are bigger.

Example: You bet 100 dollars on five underdogs at +200 (33.3% implied probability). Total risked: 500 dollars.

If you win 2 out of 5 (40% win rate, above the breakeven of 33.3%):

• Wins: 2 x 200 = 400 dollars profit
• Losses: 3 x 100 = 300 dollars lost
• Net profit: 400 - 300 = 100 dollars

You won only 40% of your bets but still made 100 dollars profit. That is the power of plus-money betting.

Importance of matchup edges, situational angles, and line movement:

• Look for underdogs with strong defenses or favorable matchups
• Check for sharp money moving the line toward the underdog
• Focus on situational spots: divisional games, rest advantages, weather

For more on underdog strategy, see our underdog moneyline guide (coming soon).

Moneyline vs Spread: Which Bet Type Fits Your Angle?

Sometimes the moneyline offers better value than the spread. Other times, the spread is the smarter play.

Side-by-side examples:

Example 1: Heavy favorite

• Kansas City -7 at -110 (spread)
• Kansas City -300 (moneyline)

The spread offers better value here. You risk 110 dollars to win 100 dollars and only need Kansas City to win by 8+. The moneyline requires risking 300 dollars to win 100 dollars.

Example 2: Short favorite

• Dallas -2.5 at -110 (spread)
• Dallas -140 (moneyline)

The moneyline might offer better value if you believe Dallas wins outright but the margin is tight. Risking 140 dollars to win 100 dollars avoids the risk of a 1 or 2-point loss that would kill the spread bet.

Use the calculator to compare implied probabilities and break-even points. For a full breakdown, see our Moneyline vs Spread comparison guide.

Live Moneyline Betting: In-Play Strategy Basics

Live moneylines shift constantly based on score, momentum, injuries, and time remaining. Live betting offers opportunities but also risks.

Price swings after early scores or injuries:

• A -200 favorite that falls behind early might move to -110 or even pick'em
• If you believe they will come back, this is a chance to back them at a better price

High-level rules:

• Avoid chasing comebacks without a strong reason. Teams fall behind because they are playing poorly, not just bad luck.
• Be extra careful with tilt and over-betting live. Set strict limits before the game starts.
• Do not let excitement override your process. If the bet does not offer value, skip it.

Micro RG reminder tailored to live betting: Live betting moves fast. It is easy to place more bets than you planned. Set a maximum stake for live bets before the game and stick to it.

Parlays, Same Game Parlays & Moneyline Systems

Moneyline Parlay Strategy: Favorites vs Mixed Legs

Parlays combine multiple moneyline bets into one wager. All selections must win for the parlay to cash. The payout multiplies with each leg.

Why parlays are attractive but high variance:

• Small stakes can win big payouts (2-leg parlay of -110 favorites pays about +264)
• Fun and exciting for recreational bettors
• Higher risk: one loss kills the entire ticket

Simple examples:

2-leg parlay with favorites: Chiefs -150, Bills -150 Combined odds: about +173 Risk: 100 dollars to win 173 dollars Implied probability of both winning: about 36.6%

Larger multi-leg lottery tickets: Five-leg parlay of -110 favorites pays about +592 (5.92-to-1). The implied probability of all five winning: about 14.5%. One upset and you lose.

Show implied probability of multi-leg parlays using the calculator: Always run your parlay through a calculator to see the combined probability. If it feels too risky, it probably is.

Parlay insurance promos: Some sportsbooks offer parlay insurance (refund if one leg loses). These reduce risk but do not eliminate it. Always read the terms.

For full parlay strategy, see our Parlay Betting Guide.

Same Game Parlays & Correlated Outcomes

Same game parlays (SGPs) let you combine multiple bets from the same game into one wager. Some outcomes are correlated.

Explain correlation: Team moneyline + team total over + quarterback passing yards are positively correlated. If the quarterback throws for 350 yards, the team is more likely to score a lot and win.

Sportsbooks adjust SGP odds to account for correlation. The payout for correlated legs is lower than an equivalent traditional parlay.

RG angle: SGPs are high-risk, entertainment-first bets. The house edge on SGPs is often higher than traditional bets. Bet small and have fun, but do not treat SGPs as a serious bankroll strategy.

Simple Moneyline Systems: What They Are & What to Watch

Some bettors use systems: rules-based approaches to finding bets. Examples include fading the public, betting home underdogs, or backing teams after a loss.

Set expectations: No system removes variance or the house edge. Systems can provide structure, but they are not guarantees.

Examples of systems:

• Fade the public: Bet against heavily bet teams
• Home underdogs: Back underdogs playing at home
• Divisional dogs: Bet underdogs in divisional games

These are frameworks, not guarantees. Track your results to see if a system works for you. If it does not, adjust or abandon it.

Strong RG and expectation-setting: Do not chase systems that promise guaranteed profits. Variance is real. Even good systems lose. Bet within your limits and track your results honestly.

Bankroll Management & Responsible Moneyline Betting

Setting Unit Sizes for Moneyline Bets & Parlays

Bankroll management is the foundation of long-term betting success. No strategy works if you blow your bankroll on a few bad bets.

Typical unit sizes:

• 1-2% of your bankroll per moneyline bet
• Smaller units (0.5-1%) for parlays and long-shots
• Never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on a single bet

Example: Your bankroll is 1,000 dollars. A 2% unit is 20 dollars. Bet 20 dollars on standard moneylines. Bet 10 dollars (1%) on parlays.

As your bankroll grows or shrinks, adjust your unit size. This keeps stakes proportional to your bankroll and prevents big swings from destroying your account.

Handling Losing Streaks & Variance

Losing streaks are normal, even for good strategies. Variance means short-term results can deviate from long-term expectations.

Practical advice:

• Do not chase losses: If you lose a bet, do not immediately place a bigger bet to get even. Stick to your unit size.
• Pre-set deposit and loss limits: Use sportsbook tools to set daily, weekly, or monthly limits. If you hit your limit, stop betting.
• Take breaks: If you are on a losing streak, step away for a day or a week. Emotional betting leads to bad decisions.

Even winning strategies experience losing streaks. Trust your process, stay disciplined, and avoid emotional decisions.

Responsible Gambling Resources (US & State-Specific Notes)

21+ only. Only bet in states where online sports betting is legal.

Check which bet types are allowed in your state. Some states restrict certain markets or promotions.

If betting stops being fun or starts affecting your life negatively, reach out for help. Free, confidential support is available 24/7:

• National Problem Gambling Hotline: 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537)
• National Council on Problem Gambling: ncpgambling.org
• For comprehensive resources, visit our Problem Gambling Help page.

Quick FAQs About Moneyline Betting

Is moneyline better than spread for beginners?

Yes. Moneyline bets are simpler because you only pick the winner. Spreads require understanding margins and key numbers. However, moneyline favorites can be expensive, so beginners should start with small stakes.

How do I calculate moneyline payout?

For negative odds, divide 100 by the absolute value of the odds, then multiply by your stake. For positive odds, divide the odds by 100, then multiply by your stake. Add your stake to get total payout. Use our Moneyline Calculator for instant results.

Can I parlay moneyline and spreads together?

Usually no. Most sportsbooks do not allow you to parlay the moneyline and spread from the same game because they are correlated. However, you can parlay moneylines and spreads from different games, or use same-game parlay features if your sportsbook allows it.

Are heavy favorites on the moneyline safe bets?

No. No bet is safe. Heavy favorites lose more often than casual bettors expect. One loss at -400 wipes out four wins. Upsets happen in every sport. Bet within your limits and never assume a favorite is guaranteed.

What is a good moneyline strategy for March Madness?

Focus on underdogs in the early rounds. March Madness is single-elimination, and upsets are common. Look for lower-seeded teams with strong defenses or favorable matchups. Avoid heavy chalk on favorites. For more, see our March Madness guide (coming soon).

How do I know if a moneyline bet has value?

Compare the implied probability (from the odds) to your estimated probability. If you believe a team has a higher chance to win than the implied probability suggests, the bet may have value. Use the calculator above to check implied probability before betting.

Should I bet moneyline or spread for NFL games?

It depends on the odds and the matchup. If a favorite is -200 or worse, the spread often offers better value. If you like an underdog to win outright, the moneyline pays better than taking the points. For a full comparison, see our Moneyline vs Spread guide.

Can I make money betting moneyline favorites?

It is possible, but difficult. You need a very high win rate to overcome the juice on favorites. Track your results carefully. If you are not profitable after 100+ bets, adjust your strategy or focus on underdogs and value betting.