Moneyline vs Spread: Complete Guide to Choosing the Right Bet

Bettors often know what moneyline and spread bets are, but not when to use each. Picking the wrong bet type can cost you value, even when your prediction is correct. Understanding the key differences between moneyline and spread betting helps you make smarter decisions, manage risk, and find better prices.

This guide explains moneyline vs spread betting in clear terms. You will learn when to choose each bet type, how to use a spread-to-moneyline converter, and how to think about risk, value, and bankroll management. Whether you bet NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL, this framework applies across all sports.

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Quick Answer – Moneyline vs Spread at a Glance

Moneyline favors simplicity. You pick the winner, no margin needed. Spreads help standardize odds and pricing by adjusting the margin of victory.

Feature	Moneyline	Point Spread
Win condition	Team must win outright	Favorite must win by more than the spread; underdog must lose by less or win
Typical odds	Varies widely (-400 to +300, etc.)	Usually close to -110 on both sides
Best use cases	Picking winners, backing underdogs, low-scoring sports	Betting heavy favorites, getting balanced pricing, key number situations
Risk profile	Simple but can be expensive for favorites	More complex but often better value for favorites

Jump to the Decision Framework to see when to use each, or scroll to the Spread-to-Moneyline Calculator to compare value.

What Is Moneyline Betting?

Basic Definition & Example

A moneyline bet asks you to pick which team or player will win the game. No point spreads, no margins, just the winner.

Example: Kansas City Chiefs are -180 on the moneyline. Denver Broncos are +155. If you bet Kansas City at -180, you risk 180 dollars to win 100 dollars in profit. If they win by any score, you collect. If Denver wins, you lose your stake.

The minus sign indicates the favorite. The plus sign indicates the underdog.

For a full breakdown of how moneyline betting works, see our Moneyline Betting Guide.

Pros & Cons of Moneyline Bets

Pros:

• Simplicity: You only need to pick the winner
• Good for underdogs: Plus-money payouts reward upset picks
• Good for low-scoring sports: In baseball or soccer, spreads can feel arbitrary. Moneylines are clean.

Cons:

• Expensive favorites: Betting -300 or worse means risking a lot to win a little
• Can hide poor value: A -200 favorite might look safe, but the implied probability is 66.7%. If the true chance is only 60%, you are overpaying.

Moneyline in Different Sports (Short Overview)

• NFL: Moneylines range from -110 to -300 for favorites, +110 to +250 for underdogs. Divisional games and close matchups offer the best value.
• NBA: Short-priced favorites (-200 to -400) are common. Upsets happen due to rest, injuries, and momentum.
• MLB: Moneyline is the primary bet type. Starting pitchers drive the odds. Underdogs win about 40% of the time.
• NHL: Two-way moneylines or three-way moneylines (including draws in regulation).

For sport-specific moneyline strategy, see our NFL, NBA, and MLB guides (coming soon).

What Is Spread Betting?

Point Spread Basics

A point spread adjusts the margin of victory to level the playing field. The favorite must win by more than the spread. The underdog must lose by less than the spread or win outright.

Example: Kansas City Chiefs -7, Denver Broncos +7. If you bet Kansas City at -7, they must win by 8 or more points for you to win. If they win by exactly 7, the bet is a push and your stake is refunded. If they win by 6 or less, or lose, you lose your bet.

Key numbers in the NFL: 3 and 7. More NFL games are decided by 3 or 7 points than any other margin. Spreads that land on or near these numbers are extra important.

How Spread Betting Works (with -110 Example)

Typical spread pricing is -110 on both sides. You risk 110 dollars to win 100 dollars in profit.

Example: Chiefs -7 at -110, Broncos +7 at -110. If you bet Chiefs -7 and they win 24-14 (10-point margin), you win. If they win 21-17 (4-point margin), you lose. If they win 24-17 (7-point margin), it is a push.

Pushes: If the final margin lands exactly on the spread, most sportsbooks refund your stake. Some spreads use half-points (like -7.5) to eliminate push risk.

Pros & Cons of Spread Bets

Pros:

• Standardized odds: Most spreads are priced around -110, making it easy to compare bets
• Better price for heavy favorites: Instead of laying -400 on the moneyline, you can bet the spread at -110 and only need them to win by enough points
• Key number strategy: In the NFL, spreads around 3 and 7 offer strategic opportunities

Cons:

• Need to consider margin: Your team can win the game but lose the bet if they do not cover
• Push risk: Landing exactly on the spread wastes your time and ties up bankroll
• More complex: Beginners must learn how spreads work and how key numbers matter

For a full breakdown of spread betting, see our spread betting guide (coming soon).

Moneyline vs Spread – Key Differences

Structure & Payout Comparison

Feature	Moneyline	Spread
Conditions to win	Team must win outright	Favorite must win by more than spread; underdog can lose by less
Typical odds ranges	-400 to +300	Usually -105 to -115 on both sides
Volatility	High for heavy favorites, low for underdogs	Moderate, balanced by the spread
Typical stake sizes	Varies widely depending on odds	Consistent around -110 pricing

Risk Profile & Expected Value

Safer does not always mean better value. A -300 moneyline favorite might feel safe, but the implied probability is 75%. If the true chance is only 70%, you are overpaying for safety.

Spreads at -110 offer more balanced risk-reward. Even when betting a heavy favorite, the spread gives you a fair price if you believe they will cover.

Expected value (EV) is what matters long-term. A bet with lower implied probability but better true probability is +EV, even if it feels riskier.

Bankroll Implications

Example: You have a 1,000 dollar bankroll. You want to bet on a heavy favorite.

Moneyline: Team is -400. To win 100 dollars, you must risk 400 dollars (40% of your bankroll).

Spread: Same team is -7 at -110. To win 100 dollars, you risk 110 dollars (11% of your bankroll).

The spread ties up less bankroll and gives you better diversification. Even if the team wins but fails to cover, you only lose 110 dollars instead of 400 dollars.

RG call-out: Avoid over-staking safer bets. Heavy favorites lose more often than casual bettors expect. One upset at -400 wipes out four wins.

When to Bet Moneyline vs Spread (Decision Framework)

This section answers: When should I bet moneyline vs spread? Which is better?

Scenario 1 – Heavy Favorite (e.g. -200 to -400)

When the spread is usually better on EV grounds:

If a team is -300 on the moneyline, you risk 300 dollars to win 100 dollars. The implied probability is 75%. If the spread is -7 at -110, you risk 110 dollars to win 100 dollars. The implied probability is 52.4%.

Example with numbers:

• Kansas City -300 (moneyline) vs Kansas City -7 at -110 (spread)
• If you believe Kansas City has an 80% chance to win and a 60% chance to cover -7, the spread offers better value.
• Moneyline EV: (0.80 x 100) - (0.20 x 300) = 80 - 60 = +20 dollars per 300 risked = 6.7% ROI
• Spread EV: (0.60 x 100) - (0.40 x 110) = 60 - 44 = +16 dollars per 110 risked = 14.5% ROI

The spread offers higher ROI despite lower win probability.

Try the converter below to see the implied win probability for any spread.

Scenario 2 – Live Underdog (e.g. +150 to +250)

When moneyline is superior to taking points:

If you believe an underdog will win outright, the moneyline pays better than taking the points.

Example: Denver +7 at -110 vs Denver +200 (moneyline). If Denver wins outright, both bets cash. But the moneyline pays +200 instead of -110. That is a huge difference in payout.

Risk vs reward: The moneyline requires an outright win. The spread gives you a cushion. If Denver loses by 6, the spread wins but the moneyline loses. Decide based on your confidence in an outright upset.

Scenario 3 – Tight Spread Around Key Numbers (NFL)

In the NFL, spreads landing on 3 or 7 are critical. These are the most common margins of victory.

Example: Kansas City -3 at -110. If you bet Kansas City -3 and they win by a field goal (24-21), the bet pushes. You get your stake back but no profit.

When moneyline makes sense: If you believe Kansas City wins outright but the margin could be close, the moneyline avoids push risk. However, you pay a price. Kansas City -3 might be -110, while the moneyline is -150 or worse.

Scenario 4 – Low-Scoring Sports (MLB/NHL)

In baseball, the run line is typically 1.5 runs. In hockey, the puck line is 1.5 goals. These lines can feel too wide or too narrow depending on the matchup.

Example: New York Yankees -1.5 at +120 vs Yankees -140 (moneyline). If you believe the Yankees win but by only 1 run, the moneyline is safer. If you believe they blow out the opponent, the run line offers better payout.

Why run line/puck line conditions sometimes make moneyline more appropriate: Low-scoring games are decided by 1 run or goal more often than high-scoring blowouts. The moneyline gives you the win without needing a big margin.

For sport-specific strategy, see our MLB and NHL guides (coming soon).

Spread-to-Moneyline Converter – How to Use the Tool

Use the calculator below to compare spread and moneyline value. Enter the spread and vig to see implied win probability and estimated fair moneyline.

Step 1 – Enter the Spread and Vig

The spread is the point adjustment (like -7 or +3). Vig is the price you pay, usually -110.

Why vig matters: Vig is the sportsbook margin. A spread of -7 at -110 has different implied probability than -7 at -115.

Step 2 – See Implied Win Probability & Fair Moneyline

The calculator shows:

• Implied win probability: The chance the favorite covers or the underdog stays within the spread
• Estimated fair moneyline: What the moneyline should be if it reflects the same probability as the spread

Example: -7 at -110 implies about 52.4% chance to cover. The fair moneyline for a 52.4% chance is about -110. If the actual moneyline is -200, the spread offers better value.

Step 3 – Compare to Current Odds for Value

Compare the fair moneyline from the calculator to the actual moneyline offered at your sportsbook.

If the actual moneyline is worse (more expensive) than the fair estimate, bet the spread. If the actual moneyline is better (cheaper) than the fair estimate, bet the moneyline.

Simplified EV concept: Positive EV means the bet offers long-term profit potential. Negative EV means you are overpaying.

What the Calculator Does NOT Do

The calculator does not guarantee winning bets. It shows math, not predictions. Outcomes vary, and sports betting involves risk.

The calculator uses standard formulas to estimate fair value. Real markets can deviate due to sharp money, public betting, or injury news.

RG message: Use the calculator as one tool in your process. Bet small stakes, think long-term, and avoid chasing losses.

Sport-by-Sport Strategy: NFL, NBA, MLB & NHL

NFL – Moneyline vs Spread

Key numbers in the NFL are 3 and 7. More games are decided by these margins than any other.

Example: Patriots -3 at -110 vs Patriots -150 (moneyline). If you believe the Patriots win outright but the margin could be exactly 3, the moneyline avoids push risk. However, -150 is more expensive than -110.

Typical prices: Favorites from -110 to -250 on moneyline, spreads usually -105 to -115 on both sides.

When taking moneyline vs spread can change risk/reward: If you are confident in an outright win but not the margin, moneyline is cleaner. If you want better odds and can stomach a push or narrow loss, take the spread.

Historical trends at a high level: NFL underdogs cover the spread about 50% of the time. Favorites win outright more than 60% of the time. Use this context when deciding.

NBA – High-Scoring / High-Variance Context

NBA games are high-scoring and volatile. Late-game fouling and three-point variance make spreads risky.

Effects of swings and late-game fouling on spread risk: A 10-point lead can evaporate in 2 minutes with intentional fouls and quick threes. Spreads of -7 or more are often decided in the final possession.

When moneyline may be attractive for short underdogs/favorites: If a team is -3 at -110 (spread) or -140 (moneyline), the moneyline avoids late-game chaos. You only need the win.

MLB – Moneyline vs Run Line

The MLB run line is typically 1.5 runs. Favorites give 1.5 runs at plus-money. Underdogs get 1.5 runs at minus-money.

Example: Yankees -1.5 at +120 vs Yankees -140 (moneyline). The run line offers better payout but requires a 2+ run margin. The moneyline is safer but more expensive.

When each makes more sense:

• Moneyline: When pitching matchup favors a close game (1-run win likely)
• Run line: When you expect a blowout (ace pitcher vs weak lineup)

Pitching matchups and low total games: Check the game total. If the total is 7 or lower, one-run games are more likely. Stick with the moneyline.

NHL – Puck Line vs Moneyline

The NHL puck line is 1.5 goals, similar to MLB.

Example: Avalanche -1.5 at +130 vs Avalanche -160 (moneyline). The puck line offers better payout but requires a 2+ goal margin. Many NHL games are decided by 1 goal.

When to use each: If you expect a close game, stick with the moneyline. If you expect a blowout (top team vs weak opponent), the puck line offers value.

Parlays, Teasers & Same Game Parlays (SGPs)

Combining Moneyline & Spread in Parlays

You can combine moneylines and spreads from different games in a parlay. All legs must win for the parlay to cash.

Basic parlay risk/reward: Parlays multiply the odds of each leg. A two-leg parlay of -110 bets pays about +264. The combined implied probability is lower than each individual leg.

Example: Chiefs -7 (spread) + Lakers -150 (moneyline) = combined parlay odds around +160. Both must win for you to collect.

Teasers – Adjusting the Spread

Teasers let you adjust spreads in your favor across multiple games. The trade-off is a lower payout.

Example: Chiefs -7 and Bills -6 teased by 6 points becomes Chiefs -1 and Bills +0. Easier to win, but the payout is reduced.

Brief note: Teaser pricing and edge has changed over time. Wong teasers (crossing 3 and 7 in the NFL) were historically profitable, but sportsbooks have adjusted pricing. For teaser strategy, see our Wong Teaser Guide.

Same Game Parlays & Correlation

SGPs let you combine multiple bets from the same game. Some legs are correlated.

Example: Chiefs moneyline + Chiefs -7 (spread) are highly correlated. If Kansas City wins, they are likely to cover -7 as well. Sportsbooks adjust SGP odds to account for this.

Suggest better use of moneyline/spread in SGPs: Use uncorrelated or weakly correlated legs to get better payouts. Avoid stacking heavily correlated outcomes unless the price is fair.

RG note: Parlays and SGPs are high-risk bets. One loss kills the ticket. Do not treat them as serious bankroll strategies. Bet small and have fun.

Risk Management & Responsible Gambling

Bankroll Management for Moneyline vs Spread

Simple staking guidelines:

• Bet 1-2% of your bankroll per bet, regardless of bet type
• Use smaller stakes for parlays (0.5-1% per parlay)
• Adjust unit size as your bankroll grows or shrinks

Example: 1,000 dollar bankroll. 2% unit = 20 dollars. Bet 20 dollars on moneylines and spreads. Bet 10 dollars on parlays.

Warn against chasing losses or over-betting sure things: No bet is guaranteed. Even -500 favorites lose. One bad loss can wipe out weeks of profit. Stick to your unit size.

Setting Limits & Staying in Control

Use sportsbook tools to set limits:

• Deposit limits: Cap how much you can deposit per day/week/month
• Loss limits: Cap how much you can lose in a time period
• Time limits: Set session time limits to avoid marathon betting sessions

If you hit your limit, stop betting. Walk away and come back tomorrow.

Getting Help

If betting stops being fun or starts affecting your life negatively, reach out for help. Free, confidential support is available 24/7:

• National Problem Gambling Hotline: 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537)
• National Council on Problem Gambling: ncpgambling.org
• For comprehensive resources, visit our Problem Gambling Help page.

FAQs – Quick Answers to Common Questions

Is it better to bet spread or moneyline?

It depends on the situation. Spread betting offers better value for heavy favorites. Moneyline betting is better for underdogs you believe will win outright or when the spread feels too narrow or wide.

Is moneyline safer than spread betting?

Not always. A -300 moneyline favorite might feel safe, but one loss wipes out three wins. Spreads at -110 offer more balanced pricing and better risk management for heavy favorites.

Which sports are best for moneyline betting?

MLB and NHL. In baseball, the moneyline is the primary market. In hockey, moneyline betting avoids the awkward 1.5-goal puck line. Soccer is also good for moneylines, especially with three-way markets.

How do you convert spread to moneyline?

Use the calculator above. Enter the spread and vig. The calculator estimates the implied win probability and fair moneyline. Compare to the actual moneyline offered to find value.

Can you parlay moneyline and spread?

Yes, but usually not from the same game. Most sportsbooks do not allow you to parlay the moneyline and spread from the same game because they are correlated. You can parlay them from different games.

Do underdogs cover the spread more often than they win outright?

Yes. Underdogs cover the spread about 50% of the time but win outright less than 40% of the time. This is why spread betting on underdogs is popular.