NFL Betting Guide: How to Bet on NFL Games

NFL Betting in 2026: From Fan to Disciplined Bettor

NFL betting has transformed dramatically since the Supreme Court struck down PASPA in 2018. What was once limited to Nevada or offshore sites is now legal in more than 30 states, with mobile apps putting sportsbooks in your pocket. The 2024-25 NFL season saw legal wagering handle exceed $30 billion, making professional football the most-bet sport in America.

This surge in accessibility brings both opportunity and responsibility. Casual fans who once bet five dollars with friends now have access to hundreds of markets on every game, from point spreads and totals to player props and same game parlays. The question is no longer whether you can bet on NFL games, but whether you can do it intelligently.

This NFL betting guide is designed to bridge that gap. Whether you are placing your first legal wager or looking to sharpen your approach after a few seasons of mixed results, the goal is the same: transform casual gambling into disciplined betting.

What this guide covers:

• How NFL odds and lines actually work
• Step-by-step instructions for placing bets online
• Core bet types (spreads, moneylines, totals) explained clearly
• Strategy fundamentals that separate recreational bettors from serious ones
• Advanced markets including props, parlays, teasers and live betting
• Bankroll management that protects your money
• Legal considerations and responsible gambling practices

Who this guide is for:

• Beginners with little or no betting experience who want to understand the fundamentals
• Intermediate bettors who know the basics but want better strategy and discipline
• Anyone who wants to move beyond gut feelings toward data-driven decisions

Before we dive in, a critical note: NFL betting involves real financial risk. You should only bet money you can afford to lose, only in states where sports betting is legal, and only if you are 21 or older. If betting ever stops being entertainment, resources for help are available at the end of this guide.

NFL Betting for Beginners: Quick-Start Fundamentals

If you are new to NFL betting, the terminology alone can feel overwhelming. Odds, lines, spreads, juice, units, closing line value, the list goes on. Before getting into specific bet types, let us establish the foundational concepts that underpin everything else.

Odds represent probability and determine payouts. When a sportsbook posts odds on a game, those numbers reflect both the likelihood of each outcome and how much you will win if you are right. American odds use plus and minus signs: a minus number (like -150) indicates the favorite, while a plus number (like +130) indicates the underdog.

Lines are the specific numbers attached to a bet. The point spread line might be -3.5, the total line might be 47.5, and the moneyline odds might be -170 and +145. Lines move constantly based on betting action and new information like injuries or weather.

Favorites and underdogs are relative terms. The favorite is simply the team the market expects to win, reflected by negative spread numbers or negative moneyline odds. The underdog is expected to lose, shown by positive numbers. Being the favorite does not guarantee victory, just as being the underdog does not guarantee defeat.

Vig or juice is the sportsbook margin. When you see odds of -110 on both sides of a point spread, the extra $10 you must risk to win $10 represents the book's commission. This built-in edge is how sportsbooks profit regardless of game outcomes.

Units standardize bet sizing. Rather than talking about dollar amounts, experienced bettors discuss wagers in units, typically 1-2% of their total bankroll. If your bankroll is $1,000 and one unit equals $20, a "2-unit play" means a $40 bet. This approach keeps bet sizing proportional and prevents oversized wagers.

Value is the core concept in profitable betting. A bet has value when the true probability of winning exceeds the implied probability from the odds. If you believe a team has a 55% chance of covering the spread, but the odds imply only 50% probability, you have found value. Over time, consistently betting positive expected value is how sharp bettors profit.

Casual Fan Mindset	Disciplined Bettor Mindset
Bets on favorite teams regardless of odds	Bets based on value, not loyalty
Chases losses with bigger bets	Maintains consistent unit sizing
Uses one sportsbook exclusively	Shops for best odds across multiple books
Bets every game on the schedule	Waits for games with perceived edge
Focuses on wins and losses	Tracks closing line value and ROI
Ignores bankroll limits	Never risks more than planned

The shift from casual fan to disciplined bettor is not about winning every bet. It is about making decisions based on research, price, and probability rather than emotion and hope. The rest of this guide builds on these fundamentals.

How NFL Betting Works: Odds, Lines and Payouts

Understanding how to read NFL odds is essential before placing any wager. American odds dominate US sportsbooks, and once you grasp the system, calculating payouts becomes straightforward.

Reading American Odds

American odds center on $100 as the baseline. Negative odds tell you how much you must risk to win $100. Positive odds tell you how much you will win if you risk $100.

• -150 odds: You must bet $150 to win $100 (total return: $250)
• +130 odds: A $100 bet wins $130 (total return: $230)
• -110 odds: You must bet $110 to win $100 (standard vig on spreads and totals)

For any bet amount, the calculation scales proportionally. On -150 odds, a $30 bet wins $20. On +130 odds, a $50 bet wins $65.

Converting Odds to Implied Probability

Every set of odds implies a probability of that outcome occurring. This conversion helps you assess whether the price is fair.

• For negative odds: Implied probability = Odds / (Odds + 100)
• For positive odds: Implied probability = 100 / (Odds + 100)

American Odds	Implied Probability	Interpretation
-200	66.7%	Heavy favorite
-150	60.0%	Clear favorite
-110	52.4%	Standard vig line
+100	50.0%	Even money (pick em)
+150	40.0%	Moderate underdog
+300	25.0%	Significant underdog

When you add the implied probabilities of both sides in a two-way market, the total exceeds 100%. That excess is the vig. On standard -110/-110 spreads, each side implies 52.4% probability, totaling 104.8%. The 4.8% overround is the sportsbook's built-in margin.

Use our implied probability calculator to quickly convert any odds format and identify the vig embedded in a market.

Line Movement

NFL lines open early in the week and move based on betting action and information. Key factors driving movement include:

• Sharp money: Professional bettors with significant bankrolls can move lines. When sharps hammer one side, books adjust quickly.
• Public money: Recreational bettors tend to favor favorites, overs, and popular teams. Heavy public action can shift lines, sometimes creating value on the other side.
• Injuries: A starting quarterback ruled out mid-week can move a spread by 3-7 points.
• Weather reports: Late-week forecasts showing high winds or precipitation often drop totals.

Understanding where a line opened versus where it closes matters. Beating the closing line (getting a better number than the final price) is a strong indicator of long-term betting skill. If you bet a team at -3 and it closes at -4.5, you likely found value.

Public vs. Handle Splits

Some resources publish betting splits showing what percentage of bets and dollars are on each side. A common scenario: 70% of bets might be on the favorite, but if the line moves toward that underdog, sharp money on the dog is outweighing recreational action on the favorite.

The distinction between bet percentage and handle percentage matters. If 80% of tickets are on the Chiefs but only 55% of total dollars, many small bets favor the Chiefs while larger, potentially sharper bets favor the opponent. When bet count and dollar amount diverge significantly, the money side often indicates where professionals stand.

Blindly fading the public rarely works as a standalone strategy, but understanding where the money flows adds context to line movement.

Reading Opening Lines vs. Closing Lines

Opening lines reflect the sportsbook's initial assessment, often released Sunday evening or Monday morning for the following week's games. These early numbers attract sharp action from professional bettors who spot pricing errors.

By kickoff, lines have absorbed all available information and betting action, creating the closing line. This final number represents the market's most efficient price. Tracking whether you consistently beat or trail the close reveals whether your analysis adds value. If you regularly take teams at worse numbers than the close, you are likely betting on the wrong side of information.

How to Bet on NFL Games Online: Step-by-Step Walkthrough

Placing your first NFL bet online is straightforward once you understand the process. Here is a step-by-step guide to get from zero to placing a wager.

Step 1: Choose a Legal Sportsbook

Select a licensed sportsbook operating legally in your state. Major operators include FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, and several regional options. Factors to consider include the user interface, odds quality, available promotions, and banking options.

Only use licensed, regulated sportsbooks. They protect your funds, offer dispute resolution, and must meet state regulatory standards.

Step 2: Create Your Account

The registration process typically requires:

• Full legal name matching your ID
• Date of birth (must be 21+)
• Email address and phone number
• Last four digits of Social Security Number
• Physical address in a legal state

This KYC (Know Your Customer) verification is legally required and protects both you and the sportsbook from fraud.

Step 3: Verify Your Identity

Most sportsbooks verify identity electronically using the information provided. Occasionally you may need to upload a photo of your drivers license or another government ID. This process usually takes minutes but can take up to 24 hours.

Step 4: Make Your First Deposit

Common deposit methods include:

• Debit cards
• Bank transfers (ACH)
• PayPal and Venmo
• Play+ prepaid cards
• Cash at retail locations

Credit cards are restricted at most US sportsbooks per banking regulations. Choose a method that works for both deposits and withdrawals to simplify cash management.

Step 5: Find the NFL Market You Want

Navigate to the NFL section, typically under Football or a dedicated NFL tab. Select the game you want to bet on, and you will see available markets:

• Point spread
• Moneyline
• Game total (over/under)
• Team totals
• Player props
• Game props
• Same game parlays
• Futures

Click on the specific outcome you want to back. This adds it to your bet slip.

Step 6: Enter Your Stake and Review

Your bet slip shows:

• The selection (team and bet type)
• The current odds
• A field to enter your stake
• The potential payout if you win

Review the details carefully. Odds can change between when you click and when you submit. Most books will alert you if the odds move before confirmation.

Step 7: Confirm the Bet

Click the confirm or place bet button. Your wager is now live. You will receive a confirmation showing your bet ID, selection, stake, odds, and potential return.

Step 8: Track Your Results

Navigate to your bet history or open bets section to track active wagers. After games complete, settled bets show whether you won or lost, with winnings automatically credited to your account balance.

Cash Out Options

Many sportsbooks offer cash out on open bets, letting you settle before the game ends. If your team is winning and you want to lock in profit (or cut losses on a losing position), cash out provides that flexibility. Be aware that cash out prices typically favor the sportsbook, so use this feature judiciously.

Core NFL Bet Types Explained: Spreads, Moneylines and Totals

Three bet types form the foundation of NFL wagering: point spreads, moneylines, and totals. Understanding when and why to use each is fundamental to NFL betting strategy.

NFL Point Spreads and Key Numbers

The point spread is the most popular NFL bet type. It handicaps the favorite by a certain number of points, creating a more balanced market where both sides have roughly equal probability of winning against the spread (ATS).

How spreads work:

If the Kansas City Chiefs are -3.5 against the Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5), the Chiefs must win by 4 or more points to cover. A Chiefs victory by exactly 3 points loses the spread bet. The Raiders cover if they win outright or lose by 3 or fewer.

Half-point spreads eliminate pushes (ties). On whole-number spreads like -3, the favorite winning by exactly 3 pushes, refunding all bets.

Key Numbers in NFL Betting

NFL scoring is not evenly distributed. Field goals (3 points) and touchdowns with extra points (7 points) create clustering around specific margins of victory. The most common final margins are 3 and 7, making these the most important key numbers.

Key Number	Common Scoring Path	Approximate Frequency
3	One field goal difference	~15% of games
7	One touchdown + PAT difference	~9% of games
10	TD + PAT + FG difference	~6% of games
6	Two field goals or TD without PAT	~5% of games
14	Two touchdowns difference	~5% of games

Because so many games land on 3 and 7, the difference between -2.5 and -3.5 is significant. Getting -2.5 instead of -3 on a favorite provides an extra win when they win by exactly 3. This is why sharp bettors obsess over getting the best number.

Key numbers also drive teaser strategy. Moving a spread through 3 and 7 via teasers adds substantial value. Learn more in our NFL teaser strategy guide.

For a deeper dive into spread betting mechanics, see our complete point spread betting guide.

NFL Moneyline Betting

Moneyline bets eliminate the spread entirely. You simply pick which team wins the game. The odds reflect each team's probability of winning.

Example:

• Buffalo Bills: -170
• Miami Dolphins: +145

To win $100 on Buffalo, you risk $170. To win $145 on Miami, you risk $100. No spread, no margin of victory requirements. Just pick the winner.

When moneylines make sense:

• Small favorites: When a team is favored by less than a field goal, the moneyline often provides better risk-adjusted value than the spread. A -130 moneyline on a -2.5 favorite might be more attractive than laying -110 on the spread.

• Underdog confidence: If you genuinely believe an underdog can win outright, the moneyline offers a bigger payout than the spread.

• Parlay construction: Moneylines let you include short favorites in parlays without worrying about spreads.

Scenario	Spread Result	Moneyline Result
Favorite wins by 1	Favorite loses (if spread is -3)	Favorite wins
Favorite wins by 10	Favorite wins	Favorite wins
Underdog wins by 3	Underdog wins	Underdog wins

For comprehensive moneyline strategies, read our moneyline betting guide.

NFL Totals (Over/Under) Betting

Totals betting focuses on combined scoring rather than which team wins. The sportsbook sets a number, and you bet whether the actual combined score will be over or under that line.

Example:

Lions vs. Packers total: 48.5

If the final score is Lions 28, Packers 24 (combined 52), the over wins. If the final is Lions 20, Packers 17 (combined 37), the under wins.

Factors driving NFL totals:

• Offensive efficiency: High-powered passing attacks facing weak secondaries push totals higher.
• Defensive matchups: Elite defenses meeting struggling offenses often yield lower-scoring games.
• Pace of play: Teams that run up-tempo increase possession counts, creating more scoring opportunities.
• Weather conditions: Wind, rain, cold, and precipitation typically suppress scoring and favor unders.
• Injuries: Missing key offensive players (QB, top receivers, lead running back) can significantly impact scoring potential.

Weather deserves special attention for NFL totals. A posted total of 45 might look attractive for an over in a dome, but outdoor games in December with 20+ mph winds often see totals adjusted down by 2-4 points. See our NFL weather betting guide for detailed analysis.

For complete totals strategy, explore our over/under betting guide.

NFL Betting Tips and Basic Strategy

There is no guaranteed system for winning NFL bets. Anyone claiming otherwise is selling something. What does exist is a process-oriented approach that, over time, gives you the best chance to profit.

Build a Research Framework

Before betting any game, develop a consistent pre-bet checklist:

1. Review the spread and total. What is the market saying about this game?
2. Check injuries. Are key players out or limited? How does the backup perform?
3. Assess rest and travel. Short-week games, cross-country travel, and timezone changes matter.
4. Consider weather. Outdoor games in December are different animals.
5. Evaluate matchups. How do the strengths and weaknesses align?
6. Check line movement. Where did this open? How has it moved and why?

Shop for the Best Price

Holding accounts at multiple sportsbooks is not optional for serious bettors. It is essential. Odds vary across books, and consistently getting -105 instead of -110, or +3 instead of +2.5, adds up over hundreds of bets.

A half-point on a spread or 5 cents on the juice might seem minor on one bet. Over a season of 200 bets, those small edges compound into meaningful profit differences.

Track Closing Line Value

The closing line, the final odds before kickoff, represents the most efficient price. Sharp action has fully incorporated into the number. If you consistently bet spreads at -2.5 that close at -3.5, you are demonstrating skill. If you consistently take -4 on spreads that close at -3, you are likely finding negative expected value.

Track your bets, including the odds you got and the closing price. Over time, this data reveals whether your analysis is adding value.

Avoid Common Strategic Pitfalls

• Do not bet every game. The sportsbook offers a full slate because they profit from volume. You should only bet games where you have identified an edge.

• Do not overreact to last week. A team that lost by 30 is not automatically due for regression just as a team that dominated is not automatically a lock.

• Do not blindly fade the public. Public betting percentages provide context, not a strategy. The public is often right, especially on heavily lined games.

• Do not chase steam moves. By the time you see a line move sharply, the value is likely gone. Chasing moves puts you at the end of the information chain.

Situational Factors That Matter

NFL games are not played in a vacuum. Context shapes outcomes:

• Divisional games: Teams play each other twice per season and know each other intimately. Underdogs often perform better in division matchups.
• Primetime spots: Some teams consistently perform differently under the lights. Track how teams handle Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football, and Thursday Night Football pressure.
• Revenge games: A team facing a former coach or coming off an embarrassing loss may play with extra motivation, though this factor is often overpriced by the market.
• Lookahead spots: A team facing a weak opponent before a marquee matchup may overlook the current game. Watch for trap games where the spread seems too easy.
• Short weeks: Thursday games after Sunday games compress preparation time. Road teams on short weeks historically underperform.

Building Your Edge

No single factor guarantees success, but combining multiple small edges creates sustainable advantage:

1. Specialize in specific bet types or situations rather than betting everything
2. Develop expertise in particular teams, divisions, or markets
3. Keep detailed records of your bets, including reasoning and results
4. Review losing bets honestly to identify pattern mistakes
5. Stay patient through variance, as even skilled bettors experience losing months

Simple Rules for Sustainable Betting

• Bet only what you can afford to lose
• Never increase stakes to recover losses
• Trust your process over short-term results
• Take breaks when you are frustrated or emotional
• Re-evaluate your approach after every 100 bets

Bankroll Management and How Much to Bet on NFL Games

Your bankroll is the total amount of money you have set aside for sports betting. It should be money you can afford to lose entirely without affecting your life. Treating betting money like rent money or emergency savings leads to poor decisions.

Flat Staking vs. Percentage Staking

Two primary approaches to bet sizing:

Flat staking: Every bet is the same size, regardless of confidence. If your standard bet is $25, every wager is $25. This approach is simple and removes the temptation to overbet on "sure things."

Percentage staking: Each bet is a percentage of your current bankroll, typically 1-2%. If your bankroll is $2,000 and you use 1% stakes, each bet is $20. As your bankroll grows, so do your bets. As it shrinks, bets automatically decrease, preserving capital during losing streaks.

Bankroll Size	1% Unit	2% Unit	5% Unit (Aggressive)
$500	$5	$10	$25
$1,000	$10	$20	$50
$2,500	$25	$50	$125
$5,000	$50	$100	$250

Most serious bettors use 1-2% stakes. Anything above 5% per bet creates significant risk of ruin during inevitable losing streaks.

Avoiding Chasing Losses

The urge to increase bet size after losses is powerful and dangerous. If you lose five straight bets and double your stakes on the sixth trying to get even, you are now risking twice as much on a bet that has no higher probability of winning. This behavior accelerates bankroll depletion.

Set daily, weekly, or monthly loss limits. If you hit your limit, stop betting until the next period. No exceptions.

Weekly Bankroll Example

Say you have a $1,000 bankroll and use 2% stakes ($20 per bet). In a typical NFL week, you identify 5 bets you like:

• Bet 1: Chiefs -3 @ -110: $20 to win $18.18
• Bet 2: Cowboys ML @ -145: $20 to win $13.79
• Bet 3: Packers/Vikings Over 47 @ -110: $20 to win $18.18
• Bet 4: Bengals +6.5 @ -110: $20 to win $18.18
• Bet 5: Ravens -7 @ -105: $20 to win $19.05

Total risked: $100 (10% of bankroll across 5 bets). If you go 3-2, your net profit is roughly $35 after accounting for the vig on losses. Going 2-3 nets a loss of roughly $25.

This conservative approach keeps you in action across the full season while managing risk.

When to Take a Break

Set clear triggers for stepping away:

• Lost more than 10% of bankroll in a single week
• Feel angry, frustrated, or desperate
• Betting to escape other problems rather than for entertainment
• Spending more time worrying about bets than enjoying games

Sports betting should enhance your enjoyment of NFL football, not cause stress or financial harm.

Props, Parlays, Teasers, SGPs and Live Betting

Beyond the core bet types, sportsbooks offer an array of advanced markets. These can add entertainment value and, in some cases, present unique edges. They also carry higher risk and demand more discipline.

NFL Player Props Overview

Player props let you bet on individual performance rather than game outcomes. Common NFL player props include:

• Passing yards (over/under 275.5 for a quarterback)
• Rushing yards (over/under 85.5 for a running back)
• Receiving yards (over/under 65.5 for a wide receiver)
• Touchdowns scored (anytime TD scorer, first TD scorer)
• Receptions, completions, interceptions, and more

What drives player prop value:

• Usage and snap counts: A receiver who plays 90% of snaps has more opportunity than one at 60%.
• Matchup data: A running back facing a bottom-five run defense projects differently than one facing a top-five unit.
• Game script: If the spread suggests a blowout, the leading team may run more in the second half, boosting RB carries.
• Weather: Passing props often decline in poor weather while rushing props may see adjustment.

Player props require research beyond team-level analysis. You need to understand individual roles, target shares, red zone usage, and defensive matchup data.

Common prop betting approaches:

• Stacking: Betting multiple props from the same game that correlate positively, like a quarterback's passing yards and his top receiver's receiving yards.
• Matchup hunting: Targeting players facing defenses that struggle against their position, such as a running back facing a bottom-five rush defense.
• Injury exploitation: When a primary option is out, backup players often see inflated opportunities that the market may underprice.

Props also carry higher vig than game lines, so selectivity matters even more than with spreads and totals.

For detailed player prop strategy, see our NFL player props guide.

Parlays and Same Game Parlays

A parlay combines multiple selections into one bet. All legs must win for the parlay to pay. The odds multiply, creating potentially large payouts from small stakes, but the probability of winning decreases with each leg added.

Standard parlay example:

• Chiefs -3 @ -110
• Bills ML @ -140
• Packers Over 47 @ -110

If all three win, a $20 bet might return approximately $120. If any one loses, the entire parlay loses.

Same game parlays (SGPs):

SGPs let you combine multiple outcomes from a single game. For example: Chiefs win, Travis Kelce over 65.5 receiving yards, and total points over 48.5. The catch is that these outcomes are correlated, and sportsbooks build that into the pricing.

Correlation basics:

• Positive correlation: If the Chiefs win big, Patrick Mahomes probably has a good game. Stacking Mahomes passing yards with a Chiefs win creates correlation that SGP pricing should account for.

• Negative correlation: Betting a quarterback for high passing yards while also betting the game under creates tension. High passing typically means more points.

SGPs are high-variance and often carry more vig than standard parlays. They are entertainment products more than serious betting tools.

For NFL-specific SGP strategies, read our NFL same game parlay tips.

Hedging Parlays

When you have a parlay with one leg remaining, you can hedge by betting the opposite outcome. If your parlay pays $500 on a final-leg Cowboys win, you could bet $150 on the Cowboys opponent. If the opponent wins, you lose the parlay but win the hedge, limiting damage. If the Cowboys win, you win the parlay minus the hedge stake.

Hedging locks in profit or limits loss but always reduces expected value. Whether to hedge depends on your risk tolerance and bankroll situation.

Use our parlay calculator to model different scenarios and potential hedge amounts.

Teasers and Key Numbers

Teasers are a specific type of parlay where you buy points on spread or total lines. In exchange for moving lines in your favor, you accept reduced payouts.

Standard NFL teasers:

• 6-point teaser: Move each spread/total by 6 points
• 6.5-point teaser: Move by 6.5 points
• 7-point teaser: Move by 7 points

Example:

If the original lines are Chiefs -8.5 and Ravens -3, a 6-point teaser moves them to Chiefs -2.5 and Ravens +3. Both legs must cover these adjusted spreads.

Why teasers can work in NFL:

Teasing through key numbers (3 and 7) captures significant probability. Moving a -8 to -2 crosses through both 3 and 7. Moving a +1 to +7 crosses through 3.

The classic "Wong teaser" strategy targets:

• Favorites of -7.5 to -8.5 teased to -1.5 to -2.5
• Underdogs of +1.5 to +2.5 teased to +7.5 to +8.5

These sweet-spot numbers maximize the probability improvement from the 6-point move.

Teaser warnings:

• More than two legs dramatically increases variance
• Totals teasers rarely provide the same value as spread teasers
• Some books offer worse teaser rules (pushing on a leg loses the teaser instead of reducing it)

Explore teaser math in depth with our teaser calculator.

Live Betting and Micro-Markets

Live betting (in-play wagering) lets you bet during the game as odds adjust in real-time. Micro-betting takes this further with bets on individual plays, drives, or possessions.

Live betting basics:

• Spreads and totals update constantly based on score, time remaining, and game flow
• You can bet halftime lines, quarter lines, or adjusted game lines
• Speed matters, as odds move quickly and what you click may not be what you get

Micro-betting:

• Will the next play be a run or pass?
• Will this drive result in a touchdown?
• Will the next possession end in a first down?

These markets are extremely fast-paced and carry high vig. The information edge is minimal since everyone watching sees the same game.

Live betting tips:

• Do not use live betting to chase losses on pre-game bets
• Watch the game you are betting, not just the app
• Avoid betting on tilt after frustrating plays
• Use live betting as a complement to pre-game, not a replacement

For beginners, live betting should be limited until you develop comfort with pre-game markets.

Season-Long Futures and Super Bowl Betting

Futures markets let you bet on outcomes determined over an entire season rather than a single game. Common NFL futures include:

• Super Bowl champion
• Conference champions (AFC/NFC)
• Division winners
• Win totals (over/under regular season wins)
• MVP and other awards
• Draft position

Super Bowl Futures

You can bet on which team will win the Super Bowl from the moment the previous Super Bowl ends. Odds shift dramatically based on offseason moves, injuries, and in-season performance.

Futures Market	Key Considerations
Super Bowl winner	Long-term value, money tied up for months, injury risk
Conference winner	Easier path than Super Bowl, still long horizon
Division winner	Shorter path, influenced heavily by head-to-head games
Win totals	Season-long bet, schedule strength matters
MVP	Quarterback-dominated, narrative-driven

Timing considerations:

Opening lines often offer value before public opinion solidifies. Mid-season, you can find value on teams that started poorly but still have paths to contention, or fade teams with unsustainable early success.

Hedging futures:

If you hold a +2500 Super Bowl future on a team that makes the championship game, you might hedge by betting against them. This locks in profit regardless of outcome but reduces maximum upside.

Risks of futures:

• Your money is locked up for weeks or months
• Injuries can tank a bet with no recourse
• Vig on futures markets is typically higher than game lines

Win Totals Strategy

Season win totals offer a different angle than championship futures. You bet whether a team will win over or under a set number of games, typically set around 8-10 wins for competitive teams.

Key factors for win totals:

• Schedule strength: A team with a brutal early schedule may start slow but finish strong, or vice versa
• Division difficulty: Playing in a weak division provides more opportunities for wins
• Roster changes: Major free agent additions or losses shift projections significantly
• Injury history: Teams with injury-prone stars carry more uncertainty

Win totals settle after the regular season ends, so your money is tied up for several months, but the bet does not require your team to make the playoffs.

Award Futures

MVP, Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year, and Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year futures attract significant action. These markets are heavily quarterback-biased, especially MVP, where a quarterback has won nearly every year in recent memory.

Award bets are narrative-driven. A player on a winning team with a compelling story often beats a statistically superior player on a losing team. Consider both performance and storyline when evaluating award futures.

For detailed Super Bowl wagering strategy, read our comprehensive Super Bowl betting guide.

Is NFL Betting Legal? States, Apps and Safety

The legal landscape for NFL betting has expanded dramatically since 2018, but availability varies significantly by state. Understanding where and how you can legally bet is essential.

Current Legal Status

More than 30 states plus Washington D.C. have legalized sports betting in some form. Some allow mobile wagering, others restrict betting to in-person at casinos or sportsbooks, and several have partial legalization with ongoing legislative debates.

Legal status changes frequently. Rather than listing states that may be outdated by the time you read this, check authoritative sources like the American Gaming Association legal tracker or state-specific resources.

Why Licensed Sportsbooks Matter

Using legally licensed sportsbooks provides critical protections:

• Fund security: Licensed books must maintain reserves to pay winning bets
• Dispute resolution: Regulatory bodies mediate conflicts
• Fair odds: Licensed operators face oversight on pricing and payouts
• Identity protection: Strict data security requirements
• Responsible gambling tools: Required limits, cool-offs, and self-exclusion options

Offshore or unlicensed books offer none of these protections. If an offshore site refuses to pay winnings or disappears with your deposit, you have no recourse.

Age and Location Requirements

In most legal states, sports bettors must be 21 or older. Mobile sportsbooks use geolocation technology to verify you are physically present in a legal state when placing bets. You cannot bet from a non-legal state even if your account is registered in a legal one.

What if Your State is Not Legal?

If sports betting is not yet legal where you live:

• Do not use offshore sites. The risks outweigh any convenience.
• Free-to-play prediction games let you enjoy picking games without financial risk
• Travel to legal states is an option for some bettors
• Follow legislative progress in your state

Legalization continues to expand. Your state may be next.

Understanding Geolocation Requirements

Legal sportsbooks use geolocation technology to verify your physical location before allowing bets. This means:

• You must be physically present in a legal state to place a bet, even if your account is registered elsewhere
• VPNs and location spoofing violate terms of service and can result in account closure and forfeited funds
• Border areas may experience geolocation issues, as the technology sometimes struggles near state lines
• Traveling between states requires logging into a book licensed in your current location

If you frequently travel between legal states, maintaining accounts at multiple sportsbooks operating in those jurisdictions provides flexibility.

Tax Implications

Gambling winnings are taxable income in the United States. Sportsbooks report significant winnings to the IRS, and you are responsible for reporting all gambling income, including smaller wins not reported by the book.

Keep detailed records of your bets, including dates, amounts wagered, and outcomes. Losses can offset winnings for tax purposes, but only if you maintain documentation. Consult a tax professional for guidance specific to your situation.

Account Security Basics

• Use unique, strong passwords for each sportsbook
• Enable two-factor authentication where available
• Only deposit through trusted payment methods
• Keep records of all transactions
• Withdraw winnings regularly rather than leaving large balances

NFL Betting Tools and Calculators You Should Be Using

Calculators and tools transform guesswork into informed decision-making. Rather than estimating payouts or eyeballing probabilities, use precise math to evaluate bets.

Odds Converter / Implied Probability Calculator

Convert between American, decimal, and fractional odds. See the implied probability of any line instantly. Identify the vig embedded in a market by comparing true probabilities to book probabilities.

Use case: You see Cowboys -145 and Eagles +125. Convert to implied probability (59.2% and 44.4%). They sum to 103.6%, meaning 3.6% vig. The true 50/50 split would require different numbers. Try our odds converter calculator

Parlay Calculator

Input your parlay legs and see the combined odds, implied probability, and potential payout. Compare the parlay payout to what you would win betting legs individually.

Use case: You want to bet a 4-leg parlay. The calculator shows combined odds of +1100 but combined implied probability of only 6%. You can see exactly how much vig the parlay structure adds. Try our parlay calculator

Teaser Calculator

Calculate teaser payouts and evaluate whether crossing key numbers justifies the reduced odds. Compare standard teaser pricing to what you are being offered.

Use case: Your book offers 6-point teasers at -120 for two teams. The calculator helps you evaluate whether the probability improvement from buying six points exceeds the price paid. Try our teaser calculator

Expected Value Calculator

Input the odds and your estimated true probability. The calculator shows whether the bet has positive or negative expected value and by how much.

Use case: You estimate a team has a 55% chance of covering, but the odds imply only 52.4%. The EV calculator confirms you have found positive value and quantifies it.

Workflow Example

1. Find a spread you like: Eagles -3 at -110
2. Convert -110 to implied probability: 52.4%
3. Estimate your true probability based on research: 57%
4. Calculate expected value: Positive EV of +4.1%
5. Check if other books offer better prices (maybe -105 somewhere)
6. Place the bet at the best available price

This systematic approach replaces gut feelings with quantified analysis.

Common NFL Betting Mistakes to Avoid

Learning from common errors can save significant money over time. Use this checklist to audit your betting habits.

Mistake 1: Betting with your heart instead of your head

Wagering on your favorite team regardless of the line leads to poor decisions. Your emotional attachment clouds objective analysis. Either exclude your team from your betting entirely or hold yourself to stricter standards before backing them.

Mistake 2: Chasing losses with bigger bets

After a losing streak, the temptation to increase stakes to "get even" is powerful. This behavior accelerates losses. Maintain consistent unit sizing regardless of recent results.

Mistake 3: Overreacting to small samples

One game, or even one month, tells you little about true ability. A team that lost by 30 in Week 1 might still be a playoff contender. A team that dominated Week 1 might regress. Avoid letting recency bias drive your decisions.

Mistake 4: Ignoring line movement

If you took a team at -3 and it moves to -5, the market is telling you something. Consistently betting into adverse line moves suggests you are on the wrong side of information flow.

Mistake 5: Using one sportsbook

Failing to shop lines leaves money on the table. The difference between -110 and -105 might seem small, but over hundreds of bets, it compounds significantly.

Mistake 6: Betting every game

Sportsbooks profit from volume. You should profit from selectivity. Betting 15 games per week almost certainly means you are betting games without an edge.

Mistake 7: Ignoring weather and situational factors

An outdoor game in Green Bay in December is fundamentally different from a dome game in September. Travel, rest, divisional rivalries, and weather all influence outcomes.

Mistake 8: Parlaying for action rather than value

Multi-leg parlays offer excitement and big potential payouts but carry heavy vig. If you are parlaying every bet, you are likely giving up significant expected value.

Self-Check Before Every Bet:

• Am I betting because I have an edge or because I want action?
• Have I shopped for the best price?
• Is my stake size appropriate for my bankroll?
• Am I betting emotionally (frustrated, desperate, overconfident)?
• Would I be comfortable explaining this bet to someone?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is NFL betting?

NFL betting is wagering real money on outcomes related to National Football League games. This includes betting on which team will win (moneyline), the margin of victory (point spread), total points scored (over/under), individual player performances (props), and season-long outcomes (futures). Legal NFL betting is available through licensed sportsbooks in states where sports wagering is permitted.

How does NFL betting work?

Sportsbooks set odds on various NFL outcomes. You select a bet, choose your stake, and place the wager. If your selection wins, you receive your stake back plus winnings determined by the odds. If it loses, you forfeit your stake. Odds reflect both probability and the sportsbook margin (vig). Lines move based on betting action and new information like injuries or weather.

What is a point spread in NFL betting?

The point spread is a handicap that gives the underdog a points advantage to balance the betting market. If the Chiefs are -3.5 favorites over the Raiders (+3.5), the Chiefs must win by 4 or more points to cover the spread. A Raiders victory or loss by 3 or fewer covers for Raiders bettors. Point spreads create more balanced action than simple win/lose moneyline bets.

How much should I bet on NFL games?

Most serious bettors recommend risking 1-2% of your total bankroll per bet. If you have $1,000 set aside for betting, a 1% stake means $10 per bet. This conservative approach protects your bankroll during inevitable losing streaks and keeps you in action across the full season. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and never chase losses with larger stakes.

Is NFL betting legal where I live?

Sports betting legality varies by state. More than 30 states plus Washington D.C. have legalized sports betting in some form, though rules differ. Some allow mobile betting, others restrict to retail locations. Check the American Gaming Association or your state gaming commission for current status. Only use licensed, regulated sportsbooks operating legally in your state.

What are NFL prop bets?

Prop bets (proposition bets) are wagers on specific events within a game rather than the final outcome. Common NFL props include player performance markets like passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, and touchdowns. Game props might include total sacks, longest field goal, or first scoring play. Props require understanding individual matchups and player usage patterns.

What are key numbers in NFL betting?

Key numbers are the most common margins of victory in NFL games. The most important are 3 (one field goal) and 7 (one touchdown with extra point), which occur approximately 15% and 9% of the time respectively. Because so many games land on these numbers, the difference between -2.5 and -3.5, or +6.5 and +7.5, is significant. Bettors pay attention to these numbers when evaluating spreads and teasers.

What are the most common NFL betting mistakes to avoid?

The most common mistakes include: betting on your favorite team regardless of value, chasing losses with larger stakes, ignoring line movement, failing to shop for the best odds across multiple sportsbooks, betting every game rather than being selective, overreacting to small sample sizes, and treating parlays as the primary betting strategy rather than an occasional entertainment option.

Responsible Gambling Notice

NFL betting should be entertainment, not a source of income or financial stress. The reality is that most recreational bettors lose money over time. The vig built into every bet creates a mathematical edge for sportsbooks that only the most skilled bettors overcome.

Key principles for responsible betting:

• Only bet money you can afford to lose entirely
• Set deposit, loss, and time limits before you start
• Never chase losses with larger bets
• Take breaks when betting stops being fun
• Do not bet under the influence of alcohol or when emotionally compromised
• Keep betting separate from money needed for bills, savings, or emergencies

Warning signs that betting may be a problem:

• Betting more than you intended or can afford
• Lying to others about how much you bet
• Borrowing money to bet
• Feeling anxious, irritable, or depressed about betting
• Neglecting work, relationships, or responsibilities due to betting
• Chasing losses or being unable to stop

If you or someone you know needs help:

• National Problem Gambling Helpline: 1-800-522-4700 (24/7, confidential)
• National Council on Problem Gambling: ncpgambling.org
• Your state may offer additional resources through its gaming commission

All legal US sportsbooks offer responsible gambling tools including deposit limits, loss limits, cool-off periods, and self-exclusion programs. Use them proactively, not just when problems arise.

Sports betting is meant to enhance your enjoyment of NFL football. If it is causing harm, help is available.