Same game parlays have become one of the most popular bet types in US sports betting, and sportsbooks love them for good reason. SGPs typically carry hold rates three to five times higher than straight bets, which means the house edge is significantly larger. Despite that built-in disadvantage, millions of bettors chase the thrill of combining multiple legs from the same event into one ticket with a big potential payout.
This guide is for US bettors who want to approach same game parlays with more discipline and awareness. You will learn what makes SGP odds different from regular parlays, how correlation affects pricing, and how to use tools like line shopping and expected value calculators to make smarter decisions. You will also see sport-specific tips for NFL and NBA same game parlays, common mistakes to avoid, and bankroll management guidance that treats SGPs as entertainment, not income.
By the end, you should have a clearer picture of how same game parlay strategy actually works: where the edges might exist, where the house takes its cut, and when it makes more sense to stick with straight bets or traditional parlays instead. Sports betting is legal only for those 21 and over in regulated states, and it should always stay optional and affordable.
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A same game parlay (SGP) is a parlay bet where all the individual legs come from the same game or event. Instead of combining picks from different games like a traditional parlay, you stack multiple selections from one matchup: a team spread, a player prop, a game total, and so on.
For example, you might build an NFL same game parlay that combines:
All four legs come from the same Chiefs game. The sportsbook prices that package as one bet, and you either win the entire ticket or lose it based on how all four outcomes resolve.
SGPs became widely available in US sports betting around 2019 and 2020, driven by major operators like FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM. The format exploded in popularity because it lets casual fans bet on narratives they understand without needing picks from multiple games.
The key difference between a same game parlay and a regular parlay is where the legs come from and how the sportsbook prices them.
| Feature | Regular Parlay | Same Game Parlay |
|---|---|---|
| Leg Source | Multiple different games or events | All legs from one game |
| Independence | Legs are mostly independent | Legs often correlated |
| Pricing Method | Multiply individual odds together | Adjusted for correlation |
| Typical Hold | Standard vig, around 4-5% | Much higher, often 15-25% or more |
| Availability | All sportsbooks | Most major US operators |
Regular parlays assume each leg is independent. If you bet Ravens -3 and Lakers +5 in separate games, those outcomes do not affect each other. The book multiplies the odds of each leg together and applies standard vig.
Same game parlays break that independence. When you bet Mahomes over passing yards and Kelce anytime touchdown in the same game, those events are connected. If Mahomes has a big passing day, there is a higher chance Kelce scores. The sportsbook adjusts the combined odds downward to account for that correlation, which is often called the correlation tax or correlation decay.
Sportsbooks love same game parlays because the combination of correlation adjustments, limited transparency, and lottery-style appeal creates a product with very high hold rates. Public data and operator disclosures suggest SGP hold can exceed 20% on some tickets, compared to around 5% on typical straight bets.
There are a few reasons why SGPs are so profitable for the house:
That does not mean every same game parlay is a terrible bet. It does mean you should approach SGPs with the understanding that they are designed as high-margin entertainment products. If you are going to bet them, do so with clear limits, realistic expectations, and a solid grasp of what you are actually paying for.
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In a traditional parlay with independent legs, the combined odds are calculated by multiplying the individual probabilities together. For example, if you have two legs each at -110 (implied probability roughly 52.4%), the fair combined probability would be around 27.5%, which corresponds to parlay odds near +264.
That math assumes the legs do not influence each other. If one leg wins, it has no effect on whether the other leg wins. Same game parlays break that assumption.
When legs are correlated, you cannot just multiply the individual odds. If Mahomes throwing for over 275 yards makes it more likely that Kelce scores a touchdown, the true combined probability of both events happening is higher than the naive multiplication would suggest. A higher true probability means the fair odds should be lower.
Sportsbooks adjust for this by applying a correlation discount or correlation decay. Instead of offering you the full parlay payout you would get from independent legs, they shave the odds down to reflect the real-world relationship between the outcomes. The more tightly correlated your legs, the steeper the discount.
Correlation decay is the heart of same game parlay pricing. It is the reason why stacking related props from the same game almost always pays less than you might expect.
Here is a simple example for illustration only, not betting advice:
Scenario: Three-leg same game parlay
If you built a traditional three-leg parlay from three independent games, each at -110, your combined payout might be around +596 (roughly 6-to-1).
In a same game parlay, those three legs are highly correlated. If Mahomes throws for big yardage, Kelce is more likely to have a big game, and the Chiefs are more likely to score points. Because all three outcomes tend to move together, the actual combined probability is higher than the naive calculation suggests.
The sportsbook might price this SGP at +350 or +400 instead of +596. That difference is the correlation tax: the house keeping extra edge to account for the dependent relationship between your legs.
The exact size of the correlation tax varies by book, sport, and specific selections. But the pattern is consistent: the more your legs overlap in their likely outcomes, the worse your final odds will be compared to an independent parlay.
Once you understand correlation decay, the next question is: how do you know if a same game parlay is offering decent value or if the book is taking too much edge?
The honest answer is that it is very hard to know for sure. Sportsbooks do not publish their correlation models, and calculating true fair odds for correlated events requires advanced statistical methods and large data sets. Most bettors do not have access to that infrastructure.
What you can do is compare the offered odds to a rough baseline:
If the gap is enormous, that is a sign the book is pricing in heavy correlation or simply taking a large margin. If the gap is modest, the SGP might be closer to fair, though "fair" in SGP markets is still often far from a true edge.
For a deeper dive into how correlation works in same game parlays, see our dedicated Same Game Parlay Correlation Guide. You can also use our free SGP calculator below to test different combinations and see how the math plays out.
The best same game parlay strategy starts with a coherent story about how you think a game will unfold. Instead of randomly stacking props that look appealing, ask yourself: what is the likely game script, and which outcomes naturally fit that script?
For example, if you expect a high-scoring shootout between two pass-heavy offenses, your narrative might be:
That narrative suggests a cluster of correlated legs that all support the same underlying assumption. If your assumption is right, multiple legs are more likely to cash together. If your assumption is wrong, most of the ticket is likely to fail.
Building around a clear game script helps you avoid the common trap of adding random legs just to boost the payout. It also makes it easier to assess whether the sportsbook's correlation tax is reasonable: if your legs are tightly linked to the same outcome, you should expect a steeper discount.
Correlation is not inherently bad. In fact, you can sometimes use it to your advantage by identifying legs that are positively correlated but not priced as tightly as they should be.
Positive correlation means two outcomes are more likely to happen together. For example:
When you find legs that support each other, you are essentially leaning into one strong opinion rather than betting on several independent coin flips. If your core read is correct, you have a better chance of hitting multiple legs at once.
The key is to avoid overpaying for that correlation. Some sportsbooks apply very steep correlation taxes even when the actual statistical link is weak. Others might misprice certain combinations, especially in niche markets or early in the week before sharp action arrives.
Negative correlation can also be interesting, though harder to use. For example, betting a quarterback under passing yards and the opposing team over their total might make sense in a game you expect to be run-heavy and defensive. Just be aware that books are increasingly sophisticated about pricing these angles.
One of the most common same game parlay mistakes is adding too many legs to chase a big payout. Every extra leg you add:
A good rule of thumb for disciplined same game parlay strategy is to cap your tickets at two to four legs. That range gives you enough structure to lean into a game script without turning the bet into a lottery ticket.
Two-leg and three-leg SGPs are often the sweet spot. You can build a clear narrative, the math stays manageable, and the potential payout is still appealing without being completely unrealistic.
When you see eight-leg, ten-leg, or twelve-leg same game parlays promoted by sportsbooks, remember that those tickets are designed to be exciting and viral, not to offer sustainable value. The more legs you stack, the closer you get to pure entertainment and the further you drift from any reasonable expectation of long-term success.
The goal of a smart same game parlay strategy is not to hit one massive ticket that pays 50-to-1 or 100-to-1. The goal is to find spots where you believe the sportsbook has mispriced the correlation or the individual legs, and to bet those spots at stakes that fit your bankroll.
Think of it this way: would you rather have a 2% chance of winning $5,000 on a ten-leg parlay, or a 15% chance of winning $200 on a three-leg parlay? The flashy ticket feels more exciting, but the smaller, higher-probability ticket is usually the better bet if you are serious about long-term discipline.
That does not mean you can never bet a fun, low-probability SGP. It means you should be honest about what you are doing: entertainment, not investment. If you treat same game parlays as a way to amplify a strong game read with modest stakes, you are much less likely to blow through your bankroll chasing miracle tickets.
Expected value is a way to measure whether a bet is worth making over the long run. A positive-EV bet (+EV) means that if you placed the same wager thousands of times, you would expect to make a profit on average. A negative-EV bet (-EV) means you would expect to lose money over time.
For same game parlays, calculating true EV is very difficult because you need to know the real probabilities of each leg and the real correlation between them. Most bettors do not have that information, and sportsbooks do not publish it.
What you can do is estimate whether a same game parlay is relatively good or relatively bad based on:
Even a rough EV estimate is better than guessing. If you can identify SGPs where the book is offering odds that seem too generous relative to the true correlation, you might have found a bet worth making. If the odds look stingy and the vig looks heavy, it is probably better to pass or to bet the legs individually as straight wagers.
A same game parlay calculator is one of the most useful tools for understanding what you are actually betting before you commit real money. It helps you visualise the cost, the payout, and the rough expected value of your ticket.
Here is how to use a basic SGP calculator:
The calculator will not tell you if the bet is a winner, but it will show you how much correlation tax and vig you are paying. That information helps you decide whether the bet is worth your stake.
For more detailed guidance on using same game parlay calculators, including examples and strategy tips, see our Same Game Parlay Calculator Guide.
When you run a same game parlay through a calculator, focus on these questions:
Most same game parlays will still be negative-EV even after you run the numbers. That is okay if you are treating the bet as entertainment and keeping your stakes small. What you want to avoid is betting SGPs blindly without any sense of what you are paying for.
If a same game parlay calculator shows a huge hold percentage or a massive correlation discount, that is a clear sign to either skip the bet or to look for better pricing at a different sportsbook. Speaking of which, line shopping is one of the most powerful tools in your SGP toolkit.
Same game parlay pricing is far less standardised than spreads or moneylines. Each sportsbook uses its own proprietary model to estimate correlation and apply discounts, which means the same exact SGP can be priced very differently at different operators.
For example, a three-leg NFL same game parlay might pay +350 at one book, +400 at another, and +425 at a third. That 75-point spread represents real money: on a $100 bet, the difference between +350 and +425 is $75 in potential profit.
Several factors drive these pricing differences:
Because of this variation, line shopping is one of the highest-value habits you can build for same game parlay strategy. Checking prices at three or four books before you place a bet can easily add 10% to 20% to your potential return with zero extra risk.
Here is a simple line shopping workflow for same game parlays:
Many US bettors have accounts at multiple sportsbooks specifically for line shopping. It takes a few extra minutes, but the payoff is measurable and consistent.
One thing to watch for: some sportsbooks restrict or change the available SGP legs depending on state, promo status, or account history. If a certain combination is not available at one book, that is a data point worth noting. It might mean the book thinks that combo is too risky or too correlated to offer at standard odds.
Line shopping is worth the effort when:
Line shopping might not be worth it when:
In general, treat line shopping as a standard part of your same game parlay strategy, not as an optional extra. Over dozens or hundreds of bets, consistently getting an extra 10% to 20% on your payouts can be the difference between break-even and long-term losses.
Same game parlays are high-variance bets with high house edges. Even if you are selective and disciplined, SGPs should represent only a small slice of your overall betting activity.
A common guideline for recreational bettors is to limit same game parlay exposure to 5% to 10% of your total weekly or monthly betting bankroll. That means if you have $1,000 earmarked for sports betting in a given month, you might allocate $50 to $100 for SGPs.
Within that bucket, you can further break down your stakes by game or event. For example, you might bet $10 to $20 on one NFL same game parlay on Sunday and $10 on an NBA SGP on Tuesday night. The key is to set firm limits ahead of time and to treat those limits as non-negotiable.
If you find yourself regularly increasing your SGP stakes because you are chasing losses or because a ticket "feels like a lock," that is a warning sign. Same game parlays are designed to feel exciting and compelling, but they are not designed to offer sustainable edges.
A good rule of thumb for same game parlay strategy is to keep your unit sizes small and your frequency limited. For example:
By keeping unit sizes small, you protect yourself from the high variance and high vig inherent in SGP markets. By limiting frequency, you avoid the trap of turning SGPs into a habitual, high-volume bet type that drains your bankroll over time.
Because same game parlays are high-variance bets, losing streaks are common and expected. Even if you are making smart, disciplined bets, you might go weeks without hitting an SGP. That is normal.
The dangerous response is to increase your stakes or to start betting more SGPs in an attempt to "get back" to even. Chasing losses with parlays is one of the fastest ways to blow through a bankroll.
Instead, treat each same game parlay as an independent decision. If you lose three SGPs in a row, that does not mean the next one is "due" to hit. It does not mean you should double your stake. It just means variance is doing what variance does.
If you feel the urge to chase, take a break. Step away from betting for a day or two. Review your process and your limits. And if you are struggling to control your betting or if it is starting to affect your finances or relationships, reach out for help immediately.
Gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call +1-800-GAMBLER.
The NFL is the most popular sport for same game parlays in the US. Weekly slates, deep prop markets, and heavy media coverage make it easy to build narrative-driven tickets.
A typical NFL same game parlay strategy might focus on:
Common NFL same game parlay mistakes include:
For a deeper dive into NFL-specific same game parlay strategy, including week-to-week tips and common correlation patterns, see our dedicated NFL Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide.
NBA same game parlays are popular because of the high-scoring, fast-paced nature of basketball and the deep player prop markets available at most sportsbooks.
A typical NBA same game parlay strategy might focus on:
Common NBA same game parlay mistakes include:
For more detailed NBA same game parlay tips, including sport-specific correlation patterns and common traps, see our NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide.
Baseball same game parlays are less common than NFL and NBA, but they do exist at most major US sportsbooks. The challenge with MLB SGPs is that baseball is highly variable day-to-day, and starting pitching matchups can shift dramatically based on bullpen usage and weather.
For other sports like NHL, soccer, golf, and tennis, same game parlays are either limited or not widely offered. When they are available, the same core principles apply: build around a clear narrative, be aware of correlation tax, and keep leg counts modest.
Many sportsbooks now offer live same game parlays, which let you build SGP tickets during the game as odds shift in real time. This can be a powerful tool for experienced bettors who can read game flow and react quickly, but it is also a high-risk environment.
Pros of live SGPs:
Cons of live SGPs:
If you do use live same game parlays, keep your stakes very small and treat them as entertainment, not as a core part of your betting strategy. Avoid betting live SGPs when you are frustrated, chasing losses, or under the influence of alcohol.
Some sportsbooks offer micro-betting markets (bets on individual drives, possessions, or at-bats) and allow you to combine those into same game parlays. Others offer SGPx, which lets you combine legs from multiple games with SGP-style correlation adjustments.
These are advanced products that add complexity and often come with even higher house edges than standard SGPs. They can be fun for engaged fans who want to stay involved throughout a game, but they should be approached with extreme caution and very small stakes.
Most same game parlays stack positively correlated legs (for example, QB over and WR over). But you can also build tickets around negative correlation: outcomes that are less likely to happen together.
For example:
Negative correlation SGPs are harder to price and harder to win, but they can sometimes offer value if the sportsbook is not applying the right adjustments. This is a very advanced angle and should only be attempted by experienced bettors with a strong understanding of game theory and correlation math.
| Mistake | Why It Happens | Better Approach |
|---|---|---|
| Adding extra legs just to boost the payout | Chasing big returns without a clear reason | Cap leg count at 2-4; every leg should support your game script |
| Ignoring line movement and late news | Building SGPs early in the week and not updating | Check injury reports and line moves before you bet |
| Betting the same SGP at multiple books | Hoping to hit one big ticket | Line shop for the best price, then bet it once |
| Chasing losses with bigger SGPs | Trying to get even quickly | Stick to your unit size and frequency limits |
| Treating promotional boosts as free money | Assuming boosted odds are always good value | Analyse the boosted SGP the same way you would any other bet |
| Stacking tightly correlated legs without checking the tax | Not understanding how correlation affects pricing | Use a calculator to see the correlation discount |
| Betting SGPs on games you are not watching or following | Treating SGPs like lottery tickets | Only bet games you understand and have researched |
Not all sportsbooks price same game parlays the same way, and not all offer the same selection of markets and features. When choosing where to bet your SGPs, look for:
Many sportsbooks heavily promote same game parlays with special offers:
These promos can be valuable, but they are not automatic winners. Always analyse the boosted or insured SGP the same way you would any other bet. A boosted ticket that is still heavily negative-EV is not a good bet just because it has a shiny label.
Read the terms carefully. Most promos come with caps, eligibility rules, and restrictions that can limit their real value.
In general:
The best sportsbook for same game parlays is the one that offers the best price for the specific ticket you want to bet. That is why having accounts at multiple books and line shopping is so important.
Before you start adding legs, write down your core assumption about how the game will play out. For example:
"I think this will be a high-scoring game with both quarterbacks throwing for big yardage. The defenses are weak, the pace is fast, and the weather is good."
That narrative gives you a framework for choosing legs.
Choose one or two players who are central to your game script. For example, if you think the game will be a shootout, you might focus on the two starting quarterbacks and their top receivers.
Pick props that align with your narrative: passing yards overs, receiving yards overs, and so on.
Add one or two more legs that support the same story. For example, you might add the game total over or a team total over.
Resist the urge to keep stacking legs just to boost the payout. Two to four legs is usually the sweet spot for a disciplined same game parlay strategy.
Rebuild your SGP at two or three sportsbooks and compare the final odds. Choose the book with the best price.
This step alone can add 10% to 20% to your potential return with no extra risk.
Use a same game parlay calculator to see the implied hold, the correlation tax, and the rough expected value. Ask yourself:
If the answers are yes, place the bet. If not, scale down your stake or skip the bet entirely.
A same game parlay is a parlay bet where all the legs come from the same game or event. Instead of combining picks from different games, you stack multiple selections from one matchup, such as a spread, a player prop, and a game total.
Same game parlays work by combining multiple bets from the same game into one ticket. The sportsbook adjusts the combined odds to account for correlation between the legs. If all your legs win, you win the parlay. If any leg loses, the entire ticket loses (unless you have insurance or a voided leg).
The best same game parlay strategy is to build around a clear game script, keep leg counts low (two to four legs), line shop for the best price, and use a calculator to understand the correlation tax. Treat SGPs as entertainment, not as a path to guaranteed profit, and always stay within your bankroll limits.
Most disciplined bettors keep same game parlays to two to four legs. That range gives you enough structure to lean into a game narrative without turning the bet into a low-probability lottery ticket. The more legs you add, the harder it is to win and the steeper the correlation tax becomes.
SGP odds are lower than regular parlays because the legs are often correlated. When outcomes are related, the true combined probability is higher than the naive multiplication of independent odds would suggest. Sportsbooks adjust the payout downward to reflect that correlation, which is often called the correlation tax.
Many sportsbooks allow you to cash out same game parlays early, either before the game starts or during live play. Rules vary by operator. Editing an SGP after it is placed is generally not allowed, but some books let you build new tickets or add legs to live parlays. Check your sportsbook's terms for details.
If a leg in your same game parlay is voided (for example, a player does not play), most sportsbooks reduce the parlay by one leg rather than grading the entire ticket as a loss. For example, a three-leg SGP with one voided leg becomes a two-leg parlay. Policies vary, so check your book's rules.
In most cases, straight bets offer better value and lower house edges than same game parlays. SGPs can be fun and can let you lean into a strong game read, but they come with higher vig and correlation tax. If you are serious about long-term profitability, straight bets and selective traditional parlays are usually better tools.
Same game parlays are high-variance, entertainment-focused bets with house edges that are typically much higher than straight wagers. They should be treated as a way to add excitement to games you are already watching, not as a path to consistent income or a solution to financial problems.
If you choose to bet same game parlays, set clear limits before you start. Decide how much of your bankroll you are willing to risk on SGPs in a week or a month, and stick to that number. Use deposit limits, loss limits, and time-outs offered by your sportsbook to help you stay in control.
If you feel that betting is no longer fun, or if it is starting to affect your work, relationships, or finances, reach out for help immediately. Free, confidential support is available 24/7:
Sports betting is legal only for those 21 and over in states with regulated markets. You must be physically located in a legal state to place bets. All odds and lines are subject to change. Please bet responsibly.
Gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call +1-800-GAMBLER.