We're having some technical issues.
Please come back later to see the best odds for today's games here.
Please come back later to see the best odds for today's games here.
24 April 20263min read
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks Today: Command Under Pressure - Friday, April 24, 2026
NRFI and YRFI picks for April 24: Woodruff's dominance at -169 leads the slate. Bradley, Rasmussen, and Alcantara offer scoreless angles.Friday, April 24, 2026 brings 14 games with 13 actionable first-inning angles. The theme today is pitcher command, several arms are flashing elevated walk rates, and that directly shapes early-inning scoring. We're mixing near-lock NRFI plays against elite command performers with calculated YRFI leans where control breaks down. Here's the breakdown, starting with the highest-conviction play.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers: NRFI -169
Brandon Woodruff at American Family Field in 2026 has posted 0.73 WHIP with 12 strikeouts in 11 innings at home, that is elite first-inning stuff. Against Pittsburgh specifically in 2025, Woodruff threw 10 innings with 0.00 ERA and 0.80 WHIP across two starts. Paul Skenes carries 9.53 ERA on the road, creating some bottom-of-first risk, but road volatility typically emerges after pitch counts rise. Both arms are fresh on 6-day rest. This is the slate's highest-confidence NRFI.
Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays: NRFI -149
Taj Bradley has posted a 1.63 ERA and 11.1 K/9 in 2026 with zero home runs allowed in 27.2 innings. Drew Rasmussen sits at 2.75 ERA with 9.2 K/9. Both grabbed extended 6-day rest. Tropicana Field suppresses run-scoring at 0.96 runs per game, and the market is already pricing NRFI at 59.9 percent implied probability. When pitcher metrics and market consensus align this cleanly, edge exists.
Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants: NRFI -149
Sandy Alcantara carries a 2.80 ERA in 35.1 innings in 2026 and will face a Giants lineup averaging just 3.2 runs per game with 0.638 OPS. Oracle Park suppresses run-scoring at 0.93 with a 0.85 home run factor. Adrian Houser's 5.40 ERA creates some bottom-half uncertainty, but Alcantara's top-of-first profile strongly supports NRFI at -149 with medium conviction.
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves: YRFI -132
Andrew Painter has allowed runs in 2 of his last 3 first innings against quality opponents, including 3 earned runs in 4 innings in his last start against Atlanta Braves. ATL is posting 5.8 runs per game with 0.795 team OPS, the most potent lineup Painter faces all week. The Atlanta Braves won eight of their last nine games and have a pattern of scoring early against Painter. This is a YRFI spot at -132.
Seattle Mariners at St. Louis Cardinals: NRFI -139
George Kirby owns a 2.97 ERA in 2026 with 1.05 WHIP and just 2.2 BB/9, an elite first-inning control profile. St. Louis hits 0.229 as a team (20th in baseball) with weak leadoff hitters near the top of the order. Busch Stadium suppresses runs at 0.93. Seattle is 1-8 away and averages just 3.9 runs per game. The market prices NRFI at 58.1 percent implied, and Kirby's metrics support that lean.
Colorado Rockies at New York Mets: NRFI -143
Freddy Peralta carries a 2.86 ERA at Citi Field, a pitcher-friendly environment with a 0.96 runs factor. Colorado is 3-10 on the road and averages just 4.2 runs per game with a 0.251 batting average away from home. The market consensus of NRFI at 58.8 percent reflects this read, though LOW confidence applies without verified first-inning specific data.
Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds: YRFI -111
Andrew Abbott has a 2-of-3 first-inning YRFI record in 2026 with a season ERA of 5.84 and WHIP of 1.74. Cincinnati is YRFI 6 of its last 10 games at home. Detroit Tigers first-inning lineup is hitting 0.333 with a 0.407 wOBA, the strongest profile in the data. Great American Ball Park has a 1.384 home run factor, and the weather (15 mph wind, 77 degrees) favors hitters. Multiple indicators converge on YRFI at -111.
Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays: YRFI -106
Max Scherzer's 7.16 ERA and 4 home runs allowed in just 16.1 innings at age 42 signal extreme early-inning hittability. Cleveland has legitimate potential to score in the top of the first against a visibly diminished arm. Gavin Williams is dominant overall at 2.12 ERA, which tempers YRFI risk for the bottom half, but Scherzer's side tips the balance. YRFI at near even money represents value.
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles: YRFI -125
Brayan Bello carries a 6.75 ERA and 1.93 WHIP across 18.2 innings in 2026, with 12 walks signaling persistent command issues. Brandon Young was just recalled from Triple-A, and one 5-inning outing is too thin to trust. Baltimore scores 4.4 runs per game at home and recently plated 8 runs. The market is nearly a coin flip at -119 NRFI versus -125 YRFI. Bello's baserunner rate and Baltimore's home scoring lean YRFI.
New York Yankees at Houston Astros: NRFI -116
Will Warren carries a 2.49 ERA with just 6 walks in 25.1 innings, suggesting elite first-inning control. Houston is 7-6 at home with modest recent scoring. Lance McCullers Jr. has a 6.51 ERA, creating some YRFI risk on the bottom half, but Warren's command profile supports the NRFI lean at -116. LOW confidence applies given the data gap on first-inning specific metrics.
Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals: YRFI -119
Noah Cameron's 2026 ERA is 5.40 with 6 walks in 20 innings, and he allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings against the Yankees on April 18. Yusei Kikuchi sits at 5.62 ERA with elevated walks. Both arms are struggling with command in early frames. The market sits near even money at -125 NRFI versus -119 YRFI, but Cameron's recent volatility tips the lean to YRFI at the better price.
Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers: YRFI -115
Luis Severino has issued 20 walks in 24.2 innings in 2026, a 7.3 BB/9 rate that creates first-inning baserunners. His last three starts: 4 BB, 3 BB, 5 BB. Texas scores 4.3 runs per game with 0.715 OPS and capitalizes on free passes. Globe Life Field runs factor is 0.95, a mild counter, but Severino's 2026 control issues favor YRFI at -115. LOW confidence applies without verified first-inning ERA/WHIP data.
Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers: YRFI -135
Emmet Sheehan's 2026 ERA is 5.85 with runs allowed in all three recent starts (4 ER, 3 ER, 2 ER). The Cubs have scored 7+ runs in 70 percent of their last 10 games and enter on a 9-game winning streak with multiple .300+ hitters. The market already leans YRFI at -135 versus NRFI at -110. Sheehan's early-inning vulnerability combined with Chicago's aggressive, contact-heavy offense makes YRFI likely.
{"author_slug":"greg-pearce","nrfi_picks":[{"game":"Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays","away_pitcher":"Taj Bradley","home_pitcher":"Drew Rasmussen","pick":"NRFI","confidence":"MEDIUM","odds":"-149","reasoning_summary":"Both starters have elite first-inning command on 6-day rest at a pitcher-friendly ballpark; market already leans NRFI at 59.9 percent implied.","contract_id":"385432465","park_factor":0.953,"away_1st_inn_xwoba":0.323,"away_1st_inn_k_pct":31.8,"away_1st_inn_hard_hit_pct":54.5,"away_1st_inn_bb_pct":18.2,"away_1st_inn_barrel_pct":4.5,"away_1st_inn_velo":92.1,"away_1st_inn_whiff_pct":26.2,"away_era_1st":5.67,"away_nrfi_record":"20-12","away_nrfi_rate":62.5,"away_1st_inn_starts":32,"away_nrfi_season":2025,"away_stats_season":2026,"away_stats_pa":22,"away_season_era":1.63,"away_fip":1.94,"away_fip_season":2026,"away_pitch_count":4,"away_fastball_pct":66.9,"away_pitch_arsenal":[{"code":"FF","name":"Four-seam FB","pct":47.7,"count":239,"avg_speed":96.3},{"code":"FS","name":"Splitter","pct":22.0,"count":110,"avg_speed":90.4},{"code":"FC","name":"Cutter","pct":19.2,"count":96,"avg_speed":88.4},{"code":"CU","name":"Curveball","pct":11.2,"count":56,"avg_speed":81.1}>,"away_last_3":[{"date":"2026-04-18","opponent":"Cincinnati Reds","opp_id":113,"runs":0,"hits":0,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":823721},{"date":"2026-04-12","opponent":"Toronto Blue Jays","opp_id":141,"runs":1,"hits":2,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":822828},{"date":"2026-04-07","opponent":"Detroit Tigers","opp_id":116,"runs":0,"hits":1,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":823727}>,"away_nrfi_label":"2025-26 \u00b7 32 GS","away_arsenal_season":2026,"home_1st_inn_xwoba":0.289,"home_1st_inn_k_pct":25.0,"home_1st_inn_hard_hit_pct":36.4,"home_1st_inn_bb_pct":6.3,"home_1st_inn_barrel_pct":6.2,"home_1st_inn_velo":93.3,"home_1st_inn_whiff_pct":14.3,"home_era_1st":3.19,"home_nrfi_record":"27-8","home_nrfi_rate":77.1,"home_1st_inn_starts":35,"home_nrfi_season":2025,"home_stats_season":2026,"home_stats_pa":16,"home_season_era":2.76,"home_fip":3.81,"home_fip_season":2025,"home_pitch_count":7,"home_fastball_pct":89.5,"home_pitch_arsenal":[{"code":"FF","name":"Four-seam FB","pct":35.2,"count":816,"avg_speed":95.8},{"code":"FC","name":"Cutter","pct":31.4,"count":728,"avg_speed":90.3},{"code":"SI","name":"Sinker","pct":22.9,"count":531,"avg_speed":95.4},{"code":"ST","name":"Sweeper","pct":4.7,"count":109,"avg_speed":84.6},{"code":"CU","name":"Curveball","pct":4.3,"count":99,"avg_speed":80.4},{"code":"CH","name":"Changeup","pct":1.2,"count":28,"avg_speed":89.4},{"code":"SL","name":"Slider","pct":0.2,"count":5,"avg_speed":84.5}>,"home_last_3":[{"date":"2026-04-18","opponent":"Pittsburgh Pirates","opp_id":134,"runs":2,"hits":1,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":823394},{"date":"2026-04-12","opponent":"New York Yankees","opp_id":147,"runs":0,"hits":0,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":822998},{"date":"2026-04-01","opponent":"Milwaukee Brewers","opp_id":158,"runs":0,"hits":0,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":823806}>,"home_nrfi_label":"2025-26 \u00b7 35 GS","home_arsenal_season":2025,"market_nrfi_pct":59.8,"model_nrfi_pct":56.5,"nrfi_pct":56.5,"model_tier":"Lean NRFI","model_eligible":true,"confidence_score":83,"edge":-3.3},{"game":"Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves","away_pitcher":"Andrew Painter","home_pitcher":"Grant Holmes","pick":"YRFI","confidence":"MEDIUM","odds":"-132","reasoning_summary":"{{TEAM_LINK:Atlanta Braves}} have hit Painter early in recent matchups and are posting 5.8 R/G with elite lineup construction.","contract_id":"385432412","park_factor":0.977,"away_1st_inn_xwoba":0.168,"away_1st_inn_k_pct":27.3,"away_1st_inn_hard_hit_pct":12.5,"away_1st_inn_bb_pct":0.0,"away_1st_inn_barrel_pct":0.0,"away_1st_inn_velo":94.5,"away_1st_inn_whiff_pct":25.0,"away_era_1st":0.0,"away_nrfi_record":"3-0","away_nrfi_rate":100.0,"away_1st_inn_starts":3,"away_nrfi_season":2026,"away_stats_season":2026,"away_stats_pa":11,"away_season_era":4.42,"away_fip":2.45,"away_fip_season":2026,"away_last_3":[{"date":"2026-04-19","opponent":"Atlanta Braves","opp_id":144,"runs":0,"hits":0,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":823475},{"date":"2026-04-06","opponent":"San Francisco Giants","opp_id":137,"runs":0,"hits":2,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":823237},{"date":"2026-03-31","opponent":"Washington Nationals","opp_id":120,"runs":0,"hits":0,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":823485}>,"away_nrfi_label":"2026 \u00b7 3 GS","home_1st_inn_xwoba":0.218,"home_1st_inn_k_pct":27.8,"home_1st_inn_hard_hit_pct":33.3,"home_1st_inn_bb_pct":5.6,"home_1st_inn_barrel_pct":5.6,"home_1st_inn_velo":90.5,"home_1st_inn_whiff_pct":34.4,"home_era_1st":3.43,"home_nrfi_record":"21-5","home_nrfi_rate":80.8,"home_1st_inn_starts":26,"home_nrfi_season":2025,"home_stats_season":2026,"home_stats_pa":18,"home_season_era":3.42,"home_fip":4.24,"home_fip_season":2026,"home_pitch_count":6,"home_fastball_pct":48.5,"home_pitch_arsenal":[{"code":"FF","name":"Four-seam FB","pct":39.8,"count":159,"avg_speed":94.7},{"code":"SL","name":"Slider","pct":38.8,"count":155,"avg_speed":85.6},{"code":"CU","name":"Curveball","pct":10.0,"count":40,"avg_speed":83.9},{"code":"SI","name":"Sinker","pct":7.2,"count":29,"avg_speed":93.5},{"code":"CH","name":"Changeup","pct":2.8,"count":11,"avg_speed":89.7},{"code":"FC","name":"Cutter","pct":1.5,"count":6,"avg_speed":91.7}>,"home_last_3":[{"date":"2026-04-19","opponent":"Philadelphia Phillies","opp_id":143,"runs":2,"hits":2,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":823475},{"date":"2026-04-13","opponent":"Miami Marlins","opp_id":146,"runs":0,"hits":0,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":824937},{"date":"2026-04-08","opponent":"Los Angeles Angels","opp_id":108,"runs":0,"hits":0,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":824050}>,"home_nrfi_label":"2025-26 \u00b7 26 GS","home_arsenal_season":2026,"market_nrfi_pct":56.9,"model_eligible":false,"model_tier":"Limited Data"},{"game":"Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays","away_pitcher":"Gavin Williams","home_pitcher":"Max Scherzer","pick":"YRFI","confidence":"LOW","odds":"-106","reasoning_summary":"Scherzer's 7.16 ERA and 4 home runs in 16.1 innings at age 42 create first-inning hittability for Cleveland's top of the lineup.","contract_id":"385432037","park_factor":0.975,"away_1st_inn_xwoba":0.299,"away_1st_inn_k_pct":33.3,"away_1st_inn_hard_hit_pct":50.0,"away_1st_inn_bb_pct":19.0,"away_1st_inn_barrel_pct":4.8,"away_1st_inn_velo":92.4,"away_1st_inn_whiff_pct":35.0,"away_era_1st":3.77,"away_nrfi_record":"27-9","away_nrfi_rate":75.0,"away_1st_inn_starts":36,"away_nrfi_season":2025,"away_stats_season":2026,"away_stats_pa":21,"away_season_era":2.12,"away_fip":3.88,"away_fip_season":2026,"away_pitch_count":5,"away_fastball_pct":54.8,"away_pitch_arsenal":[{"code":"FF","name":"Four-seam FB","pct":28.1,"count":132,"avg_speed":96.7},{"code":"ST","name":"Sweeper","pct":27.3,"count":128,"avg_speed":86.8},{"code":"CU","name":"Curveball","pct":17.9,"count":84,"avg_speed":83.2},{"code":"FC","name":"Cutter","pct":13.9,"count":65,"avg_speed":92.2},{"code":"SI","name":"Sinker","pct":12.8,"count":60,"avg_speed":95.8}>,"away_last_3":[{"date":"2026-04-18","opponent":"Baltimore Orioles","opp_id":110,"runs":0,"hits":1,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":824451},{"date":"2026-04-13","opponent":"St. Louis Cardinals","opp_id":138,"runs":1,"hits":3,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":823073},{"date":"2026-04-07","opponent":"Kansas City Royals","opp_id":118,"runs":0,"hits":0,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":824457}>,"away_nrfi_label":"2025-26 \u00b7 36 GS","away_arsenal_season":2026,"home_1st_inn_xwoba":0.298,"home_1st_inn_k_pct":25.0,"home_1st_inn_hard_hit_pct":20.0,"home_1st_inn_bb_pct":12.5,"home_1st_inn_barrel_pct":6.2,"home_1st_inn_velo":88.8,"home_1st_inn_whiff_pct":27.3,"home_era_1st":12.71,"home_nrfi_record":"10-11","home_nrfi_rate":47.6,"home_1st_inn_starts":21,"home_nrfi_season":2025,"home_stats_season":2026,"home_stats_pa":16,"home_season_era":5.19,"home_fip":4.96,"home_fip_season":2025,"home_pitch_count":5,"home_fastball_pct":50.4,"home_pitch_arsenal":[{"code":"FF","name":"Four-seam FB","pct":48.5,"count":674,"avg_speed":93.6},{"code":"SL","name":"Slider","pct":23.7,"count":329,"avg_speed":86.3},{"code":"CH","name":"Changeup","pct":14.0,"count":195,"avg_speed":84.9},{"code":"CU","name":"Curveball","pct":11.9,"count":165,"avg_speed":76.7},{"code":"FC","name":"Cutter","pct":1.9,"count":27,"avg_speed":88.1}>,"home_last_3":[{"date":"2026-04-18","opponent":"Arizona Diamondbacks","opp_id":109,"runs":1,"hits":1,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":825098},{"date":"2026-04-12","opponent":"Minnesota Twins","opp_id":142,"runs":0,"hits":0,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":822828},{"date":"2026-04-06","opponent":"Los Angeles Dodgers","opp_id":119,"runs":2,"hits":1,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":822832}>,"home_nrfi_label":"2025-26 \u00b7 21 GS","home_arsenal_season":2025,"market_nrfi_pct":51.5,"model_nrfi_pct":52.8,"nrfi_pct":52.8,"model_tier":"Borderline","model_eligible":true,"confidence_score":76,"edge":1.3},{"game":"Colorado Rockies at New York Mets","away_pitcher":"Michael Lorenzen","home_pitcher":"Freddy Peralta","pick":"NRFI","confidence":"LOW","odds":"-143","reasoning_summary":"Peralta's 2.86 ERA at Citi Field paired with Colorado's modest road scoring (4.2 R/G) supports NRFI; market at 58.8 percent reflects same lean.","contract_id":"385432441","park_factor":0.913,"away_1st_inn_xwoba":0.393,"away_1st_inn_k_pct":21.7,"away_1st_inn_hard_hit_pct":37.5,"away_1st_inn_bb_pct":8.7,"away_1st_inn_barrel_pct":4.3,"away_1st_inn_velo":88.4,"away_1st_inn_whiff_pct":24.4,"away_era_1st":1.73,"away_nrfi_record":"26-5","away_nrfi_rate":83.9,"away_1st_inn_starts":31,"away_nrfi_season":2025,"away_stats_season":2026,"away_stats_pa":23,"away_season_era":7.48,"away_fip":5.27,"away_fip_season":2026,"away_pitch_count":7,"away_fastball_pct":47.4,"away_pitch_arsenal":[{"code":"CH","name":"Changeup","pct":20.9,"count":92,"avg_speed":84.0},{"code":"FF","name":"Four-seam FB","pct":19.3,"count":85,"avg_speed":93.8},{"code":"SI","name":"Sinker","pct":14.5,"count":64,"avg_speed":93.2},{"code":"CU","name":"Curveball","pct":13.9,"count":61,"avg_speed":82.1},{"code":"FC","name":"Cutter","pct":13.6,"count":60,"avg_speed":89.9},{"code":"SL","name":"Slider","pct":10.0,"count":44,"avg_speed":84.7},{"code":"ST","name":"Sweeper","pct":7.7,"count":34,"avg_speed":82.3}>,"away_last_3":[{"date":"2026-04-19","opponent":"Los Angeles Dodgers","opp_id":119,"runs":0,"hits":0,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":824371},{"date":"2026-04-14","opponent":"Houston Astros","opp_id":117,"runs":0,"hits":0,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":824210},{"date":"2026-04-08","opponent":"Houston Astros","opp_id":117,"runs":0,"hits":0,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":824374}>,"away_nrfi_label":"2025-26 \u00b7 31 GS","away_arsenal_season":2026,"home_1st_inn_xwoba":0.251,"home_1st_inn_k_pct":38.1,"home_1st_inn_hard_hit_pct":58.3,"home_1st_inn_bb_pct":4.8,"home_1st_inn_barrel_pct":0.0,"home_1st_inn_velo":89.1,"home_1st_inn_whiff_pct":47.5,"home_era_1st":1.91,"home_nrfi_record":"32-6","home_nrfi_rate":84.2,"home_1st_inn_starts":38,"home_nrfi_season":2025,"home_stats_season":2026,"home_stats_pa":21,"home_season_era":4.05,"home_fip":4.3,"home_fip_season":2026,"home_pitch_count":5,"home_fastball_pct":50.2,"home_pitch_arsenal":[{"code":"FF","name":"Four-seam FB","pct":50.2,"count":234,"avg_speed":93.6},{"code":"CH","name":"Changeup","pct":22.3,"count":104,"avg_speed":87.2},{"code":"CU","name":"Curveball","pct":16.3,"count":76,"avg_speed":79.5},{"code":"SL","name":"Slider","pct":7.5,"count":35,"avg_speed":83.2},{"code":"CS","name":"Slow Curve","pct":3.6,"count":17,"avg_speed":75.0}>,"home_last_3":[{"date":"2026-04-18","opponent":"Chicago Cubs","opp_id":112,"runs":0,"hits":0,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":824694},{"date":"2026-04-12","opponent":"Athletics","opp_id":133,"runs":0,"hits":1,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":823642},{"date":"2026-04-07","opponent":"Arizona Diamondbacks","opp_id":109,"runs":0,"hits":1,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":823648}>,"home_nrfi_label":"2025-26 \u00b7 38 GS","home_arsenal_season":2026,"market_nrfi_pct":58.8,"model_nrfi_pct":52.7,"nrfi_pct":52.7,"model_tier":"Borderline","model_eligible":true,"confidence_score":75,"edge":-6.1},{"game":"Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds","away_pitcher":"Framber Valdez","home_pitcher":"Andrew Abbott","pick":"YRFI","confidence":"MEDIUM","odds":"-111","reasoning_summary":"{{TEAM_LINK:Detroit Tigers}} first-inning lineup posts .333 AVG and .407 wOBA; Abbott has 2-of-3 YRFI record with 5.84 ERA.","contract_id":"385432027","park_factor":1.093,"away_1st_inn_xwoba":0.396,"away_1st_inn_k_pct":8.0,"away_1st_inn_hard_hit_pct":45.0,"away_1st_inn_bb_pct":8.0,"away_1st_inn_barrel_pct":4.0,"away_1st_inn_velo":89.2,"away_1st_inn_whiff_pct":2.7,"away_era_1st":5.23,"away_nrfi_record":"23-13","away_nrfi_rate":63.9,"away_1st_inn_starts":36,"away_nrfi_season":2025,"away_stats_season":2026,"away_stats_pa":25,"away_season_era":3.3,"away_fip":3.2,"away_fip_season":2026,"away_pitch_count":4,"away_fastball_pct":50.4,"away_pitch_arsenal":[{"code":"SI","name":"Sinker","pct":50.4,"count":225,"avg_speed":93.9},{"code":"CU","name":"Curveball","pct":29.8,"count":133,"avg_speed":78.5},{"code":"CH","name":"Changeup","pct":18.6,"count":83,"avg_speed":89.2},{"code":"SL","name":"Slider","pct":1.1,"count":5,"avg_speed":86.4}>,"away_last_3":[{"date":"2026-04-19","opponent":"Boston Red Sox","opp_id":111,"runs":1,"hits":2,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":824777},{"date":"2026-04-14","opponent":"Kansas City Royals","opp_id":118,"runs":0,"hits":1,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":824292},{"date":"2026-04-08","opponent":"Minnesota Twins","opp_id":142,"runs":6,"hits":4,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":823726}>,"away_nrfi_label":"2025-26 \u00b7 36 GS","away_arsenal_season":2026,"home_1st_inn_xwoba":0.398,"home_1st_inn_k_pct":13.3,"home_1st_inn_hard_hit_pct":28.6,"home_1st_inn_bb_pct":10.0,"home_1st_inn_barrel_pct":3.3,"home_1st_inn_velo":88.3,"home_1st_inn_whiff_pct":22.0,"home_era_1st":3.1,"home_nrfi_record":"27-7","home_nrfi_rate":79.4,"home_1st_inn_starts":34,"home_nrfi_season":2025,"home_stats_season":2026,"home_stats_pa":30,"home_season_era":5.84,"home_fip":4.28,"home_fip_season":2026,"home_pitch_count":5,"home_fastball_pct":50.9,"home_pitch_arsenal":[{"code":"FF","name":"Four-seam FB","pct":50.2,"count":216,"avg_speed":92.4},{"code":"CH","name":"Changeup","pct":21.4,"count":92,"avg_speed":85.6},{"code":"ST","name":"Sweeper","pct":15.8,"count":68,"avg_speed":81.4},{"code":"CU","name":"Curveball","pct":11.9,"count":51,"avg_speed":79.2},{"code":"FC","name":"Cutter","pct":0.7,"count":3,"avg_speed":88.0}>,"home_last_3":[{"date":"2026-04-18","opponent":"Minnesota Twins","opp_id":142,"runs":2,"hits":2,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":823721},{"date":"2026-04-12","opponent":"Los Angeles Angels","opp_id":108,"runs":3,"hits":5,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":824533},{"date":"2026-04-07","opponent":"Miami Marlins","opp_id":146,"runs":0,"hits":0,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":823887}>,"home_nrfi_label":"2025-26 \u00b7 34 GS","home_arsenal_season":2026,"market_nrfi_pct":52.6,"model_nrfi_pct":53.5,"nrfi_pct":53.5,"model_tier":"Lean NRFI","model_eligible":true,"confidence_score":77,"edge":0.9},{"game":"Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles","away_pitcher":"Brayan Bello","home_pitcher":"Brandon Young","pick":"YRFI","confidence":"MEDIUM","odds":"-125","reasoning_summary":"Bello's 6.75 ERA and 1.93 WHIP with 12 walks in 18.2 innings create baserunner risk; Baltimore scores 4.4 R/G at home.","contract_id":"385434972","away_1st_inn_xwoba":0.414,"away_1st_inn_k_pct":25.0,"away_1st_inn_hard_hit_pct":46.2,"away_1st_inn_bb_pct":10.0,"away_1st_inn_barrel_pct":5.0,"away_1st_inn_velo":90.0,"away_1st_inn_whiff_pct":39.5,"away_era_1st":4.18,"away_nrfi_record":"22-10","away_nrfi_rate":68.8,"away_1st_inn_starts":32,"away_nrfi_season":2025,"away_stats_season":2026,"away_stats_pa":20,"away_season_era":3.35,"away_fip":4.16,"away_fip_season":2025,"away_pitch_count":5,"away_fastball_pct":65.8,"away_pitch_arsenal":[{"code":"SI","name":"Sinker","pct":35.0,"count":943,"avg_speed":95.3},{"code":"ST","name":"Sweeper","pct":19.0,"count":513,"avg_speed":85.7},{"code":"FC","name":"Cutter","pct":15.7,"count":423,"avg_speed":88.2},{"code":"CH","name":"Changeup","pct":15.2,"count":410,"avg_speed":88.8},{"code":"FF","name":"Four-seam FB","pct":15.1,"count":408,"avg_speed":95.1}>,"away_last_3":[{"date":"2026-04-18","opponent":"Detroit Tigers","opp_id":116,"runs":1,"hits":2,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":824775},{"date":"2026-04-12","opponent":"St. Louis Cardinals","opp_id":138,"runs":0,"hits":0,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":823075},{"date":"2026-04-06","opponent":"Milwaukee Brewers","opp_id":158,"runs":0,"hits":2,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":824783}>,"away_nrfi_label":"2025-26 \u00b7 32 GS","away_arsenal_season":2025,"home_1st_inn_xwoba":0.371,"home_1st_inn_k_pct":11.1,"home_1st_inn_hard_hit_pct":44.2,"home_1st_inn_bb_pct":9.3,"home_1st_inn_barrel_pct":9.3,"home_1st_inn_velo":89.6,"home_1st_inn_whiff_pct":18.9,"home_era_1st":6.0,"home_nrfi_record":"8-5","home_nrfi_rate":61.5,"home_1st_inn_starts":13,"home_nrfi_season":2025,"home_stats_season":2025,"home_stats_pa":54,"home_season_era":6.24,"home_fip":5.32,"home_fip_season":2025,"home_pitch_count":6,"home_fastball_pct":52.9,"home_pitch_arsenal":[{"code":"FF","name":"Four-seam FB","pct":43.8,"count":412,"avg_speed":93.7},{"code":"FS","name":"Splitter","pct":17.8,"count":167,"avg_speed":87.3},{"code":"CU","name":"Curveball","pct":15.7,"count":148,"avg_speed":76.1},{"code":"FC","name":"Cutter","pct":9.1,"count":86,"avg_speed":86.8},{"code":"SL","name":"Slider","pct":8.9,"count":84,"avg_speed":83.3},{"code":"CH","name":"Changeup","pct":4.6,"count":43,"avg_speed":87.1}>,"home_last_3":[{"date":"2026-04-06","opponent":"Chicago White Sox","opp_id":145,"runs":0,"hits":0,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":824619},{"date":"2025-08-21","opponent":"Houston Astros","opp_id":117,"runs":2,"hits":3,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":776655},{"date":"2025-08-15","opponent":"Houston Astros","opp_id":117,"runs":0,"hits":0,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":776733}>,"home_nrfi_label":"2025-26 \u00b7 13 GS","home_arsenal_season":2025,"market_nrfi_pct":55.6,"model_nrfi_pct":43.5,"nrfi_pct":43.5,"model_tier":"Lean YRFI","model_eligible":false,"confidence_score":53,"edge":-12.1},{"game":"New York Yankees at Houston Astros","away_pitcher":"Will Warren","home_pitcher":"Lance McCullers Jr.","pick":"NRFI","confidence":"LOW","odds":"-116","reasoning_summary":"Warren's 2.49 ERA with just 6 walks in 25.1 innings suggests elite first-inning control and strong command profile.","contract_id":"385432443","park_factor":1.0,"away_1st_inn_xwoba":0.331,"away_1st_inn_k_pct":40.0,"away_1st_inn_hard_hit_pct":41.7,"away_1st_inn_bb_pct":0.0,"away_1st_inn_barrel_pct":10.0,"away_1st_inn_velo":92.2,"away_1st_inn_whiff_pct":33.3,"away_era_1st":6.0,"away_nrfi_record":"31-7","away_nrfi_rate":81.6,"away_1st_inn_starts":38,"away_nrfi_season":2025,"away_stats_season":2026,"away_stats_pa":20,"away_season_era":2.49,"away_fip":3.02,"away_fip_season":2026,"away_pitch_count":5,"away_fastball_pct":68.4,"away_pitch_arsenal":[{"code":"FF","name":"Four-seam FB","pct":43.3,"count":185,"avg_speed":93.9},{"code":"SI","name":"Sinker","pct":25.1,"count":107,"avg_speed":93.7},{"code":"ST","name":"Sweeper","pct":22.2,"count":95,"avg_speed":84.4},{"code":"CH","name":"Changeup","pct":6.6,"count":28,"avg_speed":86.8},{"code":"CU","name":"Curveball","pct":2.8,"count":12,"avg_speed":82.0}>,"away_last_3":[{"date":"2026-04-18","opponent":"Kansas City Royals","opp_id":118,"runs":0,"hits":1,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":823558},{"date":"2026-04-13","opponent":"Los Angeles Angels","opp_id":108,"runs":0,"hits":0,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":823563},{"date":"2026-04-08","opponent":"Athletics","opp_id":133,"runs":0,"hits":1,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":823564}>,"away_nrfi_label":"2025-26 \u00b7 38 GS","away_arsenal_season":2026,"home_1st_inn_xwoba":0.392,"home_1st_inn_k_pct":15.0,"home_1st_inn_hard_hit_pct":36.4,"home_1st_inn_bb_pct":20.0,"home_1st_inn_barrel_pct":5.0,"home_1st_inn_velo":88.0,"home_1st_inn_whiff_pct":33.3,"home_era_1st":10.38,"home_nrfi_record":"10-7","home_nrfi_rate":58.8,"home_1st_inn_starts":17,"home_nrfi_season":2025,"home_stats_season":2026,"home_stats_pa":20,"home_season_era":6.2,"home_fip":3.94,"home_fip_season":2026,"home_pitch_count":6,"home_fastball_pct":34.6,"home_pitch_arsenal":[{"code":"ST","name":"Sweeper","pct":32.0,"count":367,"avg_speed":82.8},{"code":"SI","name":"Sinker","pct":24.7,"count":283,"avg_speed":91.5},{"code":"CH","name":"Changeup","pct":17.0,"count":195,"avg_speed":86.7},{"code":"KC","name":"Knuckle Curve","pct":16.4,"count":188,"avg_speed":82.3},{"code":"FF","name":"Four-seam FB","pct":5.4,"count":62,"avg_speed":91.8},{"code":"FC","name":"Cutter","pct":4.5,"count":52,"avg_speed":89.3}>,"home_last_3":[{"date":"2026-04-18","opponent":"St. Louis Cardinals","opp_id":138,"runs":2,"hits":1,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":824206},{"date":"2026-04-11","opponent":"Seattle Mariners","opp_id":136,"runs":2,"hits":2,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":823155},{"date":"2026-04-05","opponent":"Athletics","opp_id":133,"runs":0,"hits":1,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":825025}>,"home_nrfi_label":"2025-26 \u00b7 17 GS","home_arsenal_season":2025,"market_nrfi_pct":53.7,"model_nrfi_pct":52.8,"nrfi_pct":52.8,"model_tier":"Borderline","model_eligible":true,"confidence_score":66,"edge":-0.9},{"game":"Seattle Mariners at St. Louis Cardinals","away_pitcher":"George Kirby","home_pitcher":"Andre Pallante","pick":"NRFI","confidence":"MEDIUM","odds":"-139","reasoning_summary":"Kirby's 2.97 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 2.2 BB/9 indicate elite first-inning control; St. Louis hits .229 team-wide with modest scoring.","contract_id":"385432405","park_factor":0.992,"away_1st_inn_xwoba":0.245,"away_1st_inn_k_pct":30.0,"away_1st_inn_hard_hit_pct":69.2,"away_1st_inn_bb_pct":5.0,"away_1st_inn_barrel_pct":0.0,"away_1st_inn_velo":94.0,"away_1st_inn_whiff_pct":29.7,"away_era_1st":3.52,"away_nrfi_record":"22-6","away_nrfi_rate":78.6,"away_1st_inn_starts":28,"away_nrfi_season":2025,"away_stats_season":2026,"away_stats_pa":20,"away_season_era":2.97,"away_fip":3.85,"away_fip_season":2026,"away_pitch_count":6,"away_fastball_pct":59.0,"away_pitch_arsenal":[{"code":"FF","name":"Four-seam FB","pct":39.4,"count":183,"avg_speed":96.6},{"code":"SL","name":"Slider","pct":20.9,"count":97,"avg_speed":86.4},{"code":"SI","name":"Sinker","pct":16.6,"count":77,"avg_speed":96.9},{"code":"KC","name":"Knuckle Curve","pct":11.4,"count":53,"avg_speed":83.6},{"code":"CH","name":"Changeup","pct":8.6,"count":40,"avg_speed":88.5},{"code":"FC","name":"Cutter","pct":3.0,"count":14,"avg_speed":92.1}>,"away_last_3":[{"date":"2026-04-18","opponent":"Texas Rangers","opp_id":140,"runs":0,"hits":1,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":823151},{"date":"2026-04-13","opponent":"Houston Astros","opp_id":117,"runs":0,"hits":1,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":823153},{"date":"2026-04-07","opponent":"Texas Rangers","opp_id":140,"runs":0,"hits":0,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":822916}>,"away_nrfi_label":"2025-26 \u00b7 28 GS","away_arsenal_season":2026,"home_1st_inn_xwoba":0.489,"home_1st_inn_k_pct":14.3,"home_1st_inn_hard_hit_pct":64.3,"home_1st_inn_bb_pct":14.3,"home_1st_inn_barrel_pct":9.5,"home_1st_inn_velo":90.1,"home_1st_inn_whiff_pct":17.1,"home_era_1st":4.94,"home_nrfi_record":"25-10","home_nrfi_rate":71.4,"home_1st_inn_starts":35,"home_nrfi_season":2025,"home_stats_season":2026,"home_stats_pa":21,"home_season_era":4.05,"home_fip":5.15,"home_fip_season":2026,"home_pitch_count":5,"home_fastball_pct":57.4,"home_pitch_arsenal":[{"code":"FF","name":"Four-seam FB","pct":44.1,"count":1199,"avg_speed":94.5},{"code":"SL","name":"Slider","pct":28.5,"count":774,"avg_speed":87.4},{"code":"KC","name":"Knuckle Curve","pct":14.0,"count":381,"avg_speed":78.2},{"code":"SI","name":"Sinker","pct":13.3,"count":363,"avg_speed":95.0},{"code":"ST","name":"Sweeper","pct":0.1,"count":3,"avg_speed":83.0}>,"home_last_3":[{"date":"2026-04-18","opponent":"Houston Astros","opp_id":117,"runs":1,"hits":1,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":824206},{"date":"2026-04-12","opponent":"Boston Red Sox","opp_id":111,"runs":2,"hits":1,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":823075},{"date":"2026-04-06","opponent":"Washington Nationals","opp_id":120,"runs":2,"hits":2,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":822755}>,"home_nrfi_label":"2025-26 \u00b7 35 GS","home_arsenal_season":2025,"market_nrfi_pct":58.2,"model_nrfi_pct":52.7,"nrfi_pct":52.7,"model_tier":"Borderline","model_eligible":true,"confidence_score":75,"edge":-5.5},{"game":"Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals","away_pitcher":"Yusei Kikuchi","home_pitcher":"Noah Cameron","pick":"YRFI","confidence":"MEDIUM","odds":"-119","reasoning_summary":"Cameron's 5.40 ERA with 6 walks in 20 innings plus Kikuchi's 5.62 ERA create command issues; market near even money favors YRFI value.","contract_id":"385432440","park_factor":1.101,"away_1st_inn_xwoba":0.364,"away_1st_inn_k_pct":31.8,"away_1st_inn_hard_hit_pct":25.0,"away_1st_inn_bb_pct":13.6,"away_1st_inn_barrel_pct":4.5,"away_1st_inn_velo":89.1,"away_1st_inn_whiff_pct":29.8,"away_era_1st":6.82,"away_nrfi_record":"24-14","away_nrfi_rate":63.2,"away_1st_inn_starts":38,"away_nrfi_season":2025,"away_stats_season":2026,"away_stats_pa":22,"away_season_era":5.63,"away_fip":3.98,"away_fip_season":2026,"away_pitch_count":6,"away_fastball_pct":47.5,"away_pitch_arsenal":[{"code":"FF","name":"Four-seam FB","pct":28.3,"count":125,"avg_speed":95.4},{"code":"FS","name":"Splitter","pct":21.9,"count":97,"avg_speed":86.8},{"code":"SL","name":"Slider","pct":20.8,"count":92,"avg_speed":85.9},{"code":"FC","name":"Cutter","pct":18.3,"count":81,"avg_speed":90.2},{"code":"CU","name":"Curveball","pct":9.7,"count":43,"avg_speed":78.8},{"code":"SI","name":"Sinker","pct":0.9,"count":4,"avg_speed":96.3}>,"away_last_3":[{"date":"2026-04-18","opponent":"San Diego Padres","opp_id":135,"runs":0,"hits":0,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":824049},{"date":"2026-04-13","opponent":"New York Yankees","opp_id":147,"runs":2,"hits":3,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":823563},{"date":"2026-04-07","opponent":"Atlanta Braves","opp_id":144,"runs":0,"hits":0,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":824051}>,"away_nrfi_label":"2025-26 \u00b7 38 GS","away_arsenal_season":2026,"home_1st_inn_xwoba":0.333,"home_1st_inn_k_pct":25.0,"home_1st_inn_hard_hit_pct":39.7,"home_1st_inn_bb_pct":6.0,"home_1st_inn_barrel_pct":9.0,"home_1st_inn_velo":86.7,"home_1st_inn_whiff_pct":28.1,"home_era_1st":4.88,"home_nrfi_record":"21-7","home_nrfi_rate":75.0,"home_1st_inn_starts":28,"home_nrfi_season":2025,"home_stats_season":2025,"home_stats_pa":100,"home_season_era":5.4,"home_fip":5.55,"home_fip_season":2026,"home_pitch_count":5,"home_fastball_pct":48.0,"home_pitch_arsenal":[{"code":"FF","name":"Four-seam FB","pct":26.4,"count":571,"avg_speed":92.3},{"code":"FC","name":"Cutter","pct":21.6,"count":468,"avg_speed":88.2},{"code":"CU","name":"Curveball","pct":19.3,"count":417,"avg_speed":80.9},{"code":"CH","name":"Changeup","pct":18.6,"count":402,"avg_speed":81.3},{"code":"SL","name":"Slider","pct":14.1,"count":306,"avg_speed":84.1}>,"home_last_3":[{"date":"2026-04-18","opponent":"New York Yankees","opp_id":147,"runs":0,"hits":0,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":823558},{"date":"2026-04-12","opponent":"Chicago White Sox","opp_id":145,"runs":0,"hits":0,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":824126},{"date":"2026-04-07","opponent":"Cleveland Guardians","opp_id":114,"runs":0,"hits":0,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":824457}>,"home_nrfi_label":"2025-26 \u00b7 28 GS","home_arsenal_season":2025,"market_nrfi_pct":54.3,"model_nrfi_pct":45.6,"nrfi_pct":45.6,"model_tier":"Lean YRFI","model_eligible":false,"confidence_score":58,"edge":-8.7},{"game":"Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers","away_pitcher":"Paul Skenes","home_pitcher":"Brandon Woodruff","pick":"NRFI","confidence":"MEDIUM","odds":"-169","reasoning_summary":"Woodruff at home has 0.73 WHIP with 12 K in 11 innings and 0.00 ERA vs Pittsburgh historically; highest-confidence NRFI on slate.","contract_id":"385432463","park_factor":0.976,"away_1st_inn_xwoba":0.308,"away_1st_inn_k_pct":33.3,"away_1st_inn_hard_hit_pct":33.3,"away_1st_inn_bb_pct":12.5,"away_1st_inn_barrel_pct":4.2,"away_1st_inn_velo":93.4,"away_1st_inn_whiff_pct":33.9,"away_era_1st":0.84,"away_nrfi_record":"33-4","away_nrfi_rate":89.2,"away_1st_inn_starts":37,"away_nrfi_season":2025,"away_stats_season":2026,"away_stats_pa":24,"away_season_era":3.27,"away_fip":3.42,"away_fip_season":2026,"away_pitch_count":6,"away_fastball_pct":52.7,"away_pitch_arsenal":[{"code":"FF","name":"Four-seam FB","pct":36.0,"count":127,"avg_speed":97.3},{"code":"CH","name":"Changeup","pct":20.1,"count":71,"avg_speed":89.1},{"code":"ST","name":"Sweeper","pct":17.3,"count":61,"avg_speed":83.7},{"code":"SI","name":"Sinker","pct":16.7,"count":59,"avg_speed":96.7},{"code":"FS","name":"Splitter","pct":7.1,"count":25,"avg_speed":94.0},{"code":"CU","name":"Curveball","pct":2.8,"count":10,"avg_speed":81.8}>,"away_last_3":[{"date":"2026-04-18","opponent":"Tampa Bay Rays","opp_id":139,"runs":0,"hits":1,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":823394},{"date":"2026-04-13","opponent":"Washington Nationals","opp_id":120,"runs":1,"hits":1,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":823400},{"date":"2026-04-07","opponent":"San Diego Padres","opp_id":135,"runs":0,"hits":0,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":823402}>,"away_nrfi_label":"2025-26 \u00b7 37 GS","away_arsenal_season":2026,"home_1st_inn_xwoba":0.242,"home_1st_inn_k_pct":31.3,"home_1st_inn_hard_hit_pct":20.0,"home_1st_inn_bb_pct":6.3,"home_1st_inn_barrel_pct":12.5,"home_1st_inn_velo":89.4,"home_1st_inn_whiff_pct":33.3,"home_era_1st":3.75,"home_nrfi_record":"11-5","home_nrfi_rate":68.8,"home_1st_inn_starts":16,"home_nrfi_season":2025,"home_stats_season":2026,"home_stats_pa":16,"home_season_era":3.42,"home_fip":3.69,"home_fip_season":2026,"home_pitch_count":6,"home_fastball_pct":77.4,"home_pitch_arsenal":[{"code":"SI","name":"Sinker","pct":30.9,"count":298,"avg_speed":92.9},{"code":"FF","name":"Four-seam FB","pct":30.8,"count":297,"avg_speed":93.1},{"code":"CH","name":"Changeup","pct":17.6,"count":170,"avg_speed":83.6},{"code":"FC","name":"Cutter","pct":15.7,"count":151,"avg_speed":89.5},{"code":"CU","name":"Curveball","pct":3.7,"count":36,"avg_speed":78.6},{"code":"ST","name":"Sweeper","pct":1.2,"count":12,"avg_speed":80.7}>,"home_last_3":[{"date":"2026-04-18","opponent":"Miami Marlins","opp_id":146,"runs":0,"hits":0,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":823882},{"date":"2026-04-12","opponent":"Washington Nationals","opp_id":120,"runs":0,"hits":0,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":823804},{"date":"2026-04-06","opponent":"Boston Red Sox","opp_id":111,"runs":1,"hits":2,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":824783}>,"home_nrfi_label":"2025-26 \u00b7 16 GS","home_arsenal_season":2025,"market_nrfi_pct":62.8,"model_nrfi_pct":56.6,"nrfi_pct":56.6,"model_tier":"Lean NRFI","model_eligible":true,"confidence_score":83,"edge":-6.2},{"game":"Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers","away_pitcher":"Luis Severino","home_pitcher":"Nathan Eovaldi","pick":"YRFI","confidence":"LOW","odds":"-115","reasoning_summary":"Severino's 7.3 BB/9 rate in 2026 creates early-inning baserunners; Texas scores 4.3 R/G and capitalizes on free passes.","contract_id":"385435733","park_factor":1.025,"away_1st_inn_xwoba":0.475,"away_1st_inn_k_pct":28.6,"away_1st_inn_hard_hit_pct":63.6,"away_1st_inn_bb_pct":32.1,"away_1st_inn_barrel_pct":3.6,"away_1st_inn_velo":92.4,"away_1st_inn_whiff_pct":28.6,"away_era_1st":5.28,"away_nrfi_record":"24-10","away_nrfi_rate":70.6,"away_1st_inn_starts":34,"away_nrfi_season":2025,"away_stats_season":2026,"away_stats_pa":28,"away_season_era":6.2,"away_fip":5.69,"away_fip_season":2026,"away_pitch_count":6,"away_fastball_pct":66.3,"away_pitch_arsenal":[{"code":"ST","name":"Sweeper","pct":24.5,"count":114,"avg_speed":84.4},{"code":"SI","name":"Sinker","pct":24.3,"count":113,"avg_speed":96.3},{"code":"FC","name":"Cutter","pct":23.9,"count":111,"avg_speed":94.3},{"code":"FF","name":"Four-seam FB","pct":18.1,"count":84,"avg_speed":96.8},{"code":"CH","name":"Changeup","pct":6.0,"count":28,"avg_speed":87.4},{"code":"SL","name":"Slider","pct":3.2,"count":15,"avg_speed":86.4}>,"away_last_3":[{"date":"2026-04-18","opponent":"Chicago White Sox","opp_id":145,"runs":0,"hits":0,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":825020},{"date":"2026-04-13","opponent":"Texas Rangers","opp_id":140,"runs":3,"hits":3,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":825024},{"date":"2026-04-08","opponent":"New York Yankees","opp_id":147,"runs":2,"hits":3,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":823564}>,"away_nrfi_label":"2025-26 \u00b7 34 GS","away_arsenal_season":2026,"home_1st_inn_xwoba":0.261,"home_1st_inn_k_pct":26.1,"home_1st_inn_hard_hit_pct":47.1,"home_1st_inn_bb_pct":0.0,"home_1st_inn_barrel_pct":8.7,"home_1st_inn_velo":88.1,"home_1st_inn_whiff_pct":33.3,"home_era_1st":1.64,"home_nrfi_record":"21-6","home_nrfi_rate":77.8,"home_1st_inn_starts":27,"home_nrfi_season":2025,"home_stats_season":2026,"home_stats_pa":23,"home_season_era":5.06,"home_fip":4.38,"home_fip_season":2026,"home_pitch_count":6,"home_fastball_pct":43.0,"home_pitch_arsenal":[{"code":"FS","name":"Splitter","pct":38.4,"count":169,"avg_speed":88.4},{"code":"FC","name":"Cutter","pct":23.0,"count":101,"avg_speed":90.5},{"code":"CU","name":"Curveball","pct":17.5,"count":77,"avg_speed":76.5},{"code":"FF","name":"Four-seam FB","pct":13.0,"count":57,"avg_speed":94.5},{"code":"SI","name":"Sinker","pct":7.0,"count":31,"avg_speed":93.7},{"code":"SL","name":"Slider","pct":1.1,"count":5,"avg_speed":86.4}>,"home_last_3":[{"date":"2026-04-18","opponent":"Seattle Mariners","opp_id":136,"runs":1,"hits":2,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":823151},{"date":"2026-04-13","opponent":"Athletics","opp_id":133,"runs":0,"hits":0,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":825024},{"date":"2026-04-07","opponent":"Seattle Mariners","opp_id":136,"runs":1,"hits":1,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":822916}>,"home_nrfi_label":"2025-26 \u00b7 27 GS","home_arsenal_season":2026,"market_nrfi_pct":53.5,"model_nrfi_pct":54.4,"nrfi_pct":54.4,"model_tier":"Lean NRFI","model_eligible":true,"confidence_score":79,"edge":0.9},{"game":"Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers","away_pitcher":"Jameson Taillon","home_pitcher":"Emmet Sheehan","pick":"YRFI","confidence":"MEDIUM","odds":"-135","reasoning_summary":"Sheehan's 5.85 ERA with runs allowed in 3 straight starts faces Cubs on 9-game win streak with multiple .300+ hitters.","contract_id":"385432462","park_factor":0.94,"away_1st_inn_xwoba":0.318,"away_1st_inn_k_pct":16.7,"away_1st_inn_hard_hit_pct":23.1,"away_1st_inn_bb_pct":11.1,"away_1st_inn_barrel_pct":5.6,"away_1st_inn_velo":87.0,"away_1st_inn_whiff_pct":29.0,"away_era_1st":1.57,"away_nrfi_record":"22-5","away_nrfi_rate":81.5,"away_1st_inn_starts":27,"away_nrfi_season":2025,"away_stats_season":2026,"away_stats_pa":18,"away_season_era":3.97,"away_fip":6.01,"away_fip_season":2026,"away_pitch_count":6,"away_fastball_pct":59.9,"away_pitch_arsenal":[{"code":"FF","name":"Four-seam FB","pct":37.9,"count":751,"avg_speed":92.3},{"code":"ST","name":"Sweeper","pct":15.6,"count":308,"avg_speed":80.2},{"code":"FC","name":"Cutter","pct":14.6,"count":289,"avg_speed":85.8},{"code":"CU","name":"Curveball","pct":13.3,"count":263,"avg_speed":79.7},{"code":"CH","name":"Changeup","pct":11.2,"count":221,"avg_speed":84.0},{"code":"SI","name":"Sinker","pct":7.4,"count":147,"avg_speed":92.3}>,"away_last_3":[{"date":"2026-04-18","opponent":"New York Mets","opp_id":121,"runs":0,"hits":2,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":824694},{"date":"2026-04-12","opponent":"Pittsburgh Pirates","opp_id":134,"runs":1,"hits":2,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":824696},{"date":"2026-04-06","opponent":"Tampa Bay Rays","opp_id":139,"runs":0,"hits":1,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":823002}>,"away_nrfi_label":"2025-26 \u00b7 27 GS","away_arsenal_season":2025,"home_1st_inn_xwoba":0.433,"home_1st_inn_k_pct":33.3,"home_1st_inn_hard_hit_pct":54.5,"home_1st_inn_bb_pct":5.6,"home_1st_inn_barrel_pct":16.7,"home_1st_inn_velo":89.4,"home_1st_inn_whiff_pct":35.1,"home_era_1st":3.75,"home_nrfi_record":"10-6","home_nrfi_rate":62.5,"home_1st_inn_starts":16,"home_nrfi_season":2025,"home_stats_season":2026,"home_stats_pa":18,"home_season_era":5.85,"home_fip":5.1,"home_fip_season":2026,"home_pitch_count":5,"home_fastball_pct":46.8,"home_pitch_arsenal":[{"code":"FF","name":"Four-seam FB","pct":46.8,"count":536,"avg_speed":95.6},{"code":"SL","name":"Slider","pct":30.4,"count":348,"avg_speed":87.8},{"code":"CH","name":"Changeup","pct":16.7,"count":191,"avg_speed":86.2},{"code":"CU","name":"Curveball","pct":6.1,"count":70,"avg_speed":77.9},{"code":"FA","name":"Fastball","pct":0.1,"count":1,"avg_speed":72.8}>,"home_last_3":[{"date":"2026-04-18","opponent":"Colorado Rockies","opp_id":115,"runs":1,"hits":2,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":824372},{"date":"2026-04-11","opponent":"Texas Rangers","opp_id":140,"runs":1,"hits":1,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":823967},{"date":"2026-04-03","opponent":"Washington Nationals","opp_id":120,"runs":3,"hits":2,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":822758}>,"home_nrfi_label":"2025-26 \u00b7 16 GS","home_arsenal_season":2025,"market_nrfi_pct":57.4,"model_nrfi_pct":54.8,"nrfi_pct":54.8,"model_tier":"Lean NRFI","model_eligible":false,"confidence_score":60,"edge":-2.6},{"game":"Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants","away_pitcher":"Sandy Alcantara","home_pitcher":"Adrian Houser","pick":"NRFI","confidence":"MEDIUM","odds":"-149","reasoning_summary":"Alcantara's 2.80 ERA in 35.1 innings faces Giants averaging 3.2 R/G; Oracle Park suppresses scoring at 0.93 runs factor.","contract_id":"385432419","park_factor":0.916,"away_1st_inn_xwoba":0.222,"away_1st_inn_k_pct":22.2,"away_1st_inn_hard_hit_pct":42.9,"away_1st_inn_bb_pct":0.0,"away_1st_inn_barrel_pct":5.6,"away_1st_inn_velo":93.6,"away_1st_inn_whiff_pct":24.1,"away_era_1st":5.23,"away_nrfi_record":"24-12","away_nrfi_rate":66.7,"away_1st_inn_starts":36,"away_nrfi_season":2025,"away_stats_season":2026,"away_stats_pa":18,"away_season_era":2.8,"away_fip":4.37,"away_fip_season":2026,"away_pitch_count":6,"away_fastball_pct":52.4,"away_pitch_arsenal":[{"code":"CH","name":"Changeup","pct":24.7,"count":113,"avg_speed":90.7},{"code":"SI","name":"Sinker","pct":22.5,"count":103,"avg_speed":97.2},{"code":"FF","name":"Four-seam FB","pct":21.4,"count":98,"avg_speed":97.2},{"code":"SL","name":"Slider","pct":17.0,"count":78,"avg_speed":84.8},{"code":"FC","name":"Cutter","pct":8.5,"count":39,"avg_speed":90.4},{"code":"ST","name":"Sweeper","pct":5.9,"count":27,"avg_speed":84.1}>,"away_last_3":[{"date":"2026-04-18","opponent":"Milwaukee Brewers","opp_id":158,"runs":0,"hits":1,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":823882},{"date":"2026-04-12","opponent":"Detroit Tigers","opp_id":116,"runs":3,"hits":3,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":824293},{"date":"2026-04-07","opponent":"Cincinnati Reds","opp_id":113,"runs":0,"hits":0,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":823887}>,"away_nrfi_label":"2025-26 \u00b7 36 GS","away_arsenal_season":2026,"home_1st_inn_xwoba":0.459,"home_1st_inn_k_pct":15.8,"home_1st_inn_hard_hit_pct":64.3,"home_1st_inn_bb_pct":10.5,"home_1st_inn_barrel_pct":10.5,"home_1st_inn_velo":91.3,"home_1st_inn_whiff_pct":19.4,"home_era_1st":3.86,"home_nrfi_record":"16-9","home_nrfi_rate":64.0,"home_1st_inn_starts":25,"home_nrfi_season":2025,"home_stats_season":2026,"home_stats_pa":19,"home_season_era":5.4,"home_fip":4.39,"home_fip_season":2026,"home_pitch_count":5,"home_fastball_pct":57.6,"home_pitch_arsenal":[{"code":"SI","name":"Sinker","pct":45.9,"count":868,"avg_speed":94.4},{"code":"SL","name":"Slider","pct":15.4,"count":292,"avg_speed":88.1},{"code":"CH","name":"Changeup","pct":15.3,"count":289,"avg_speed":85.8},{"code":"FF","name":"Four-seam FB","pct":11.7,"count":222,"avg_speed":95.3},{"code":"CU","name":"Curveball","pct":11.7,"count":221,"avg_speed":81.7}>,"home_last_3":[{"date":"2026-04-18","opponent":"Washington Nationals","opp_id":120,"runs":1,"hits":1,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":822751},{"date":"2026-04-12","opponent":"Baltimore Orioles","opp_id":110,"runs":2,"hits":1,"nrfi":false,"game_pk":824859},{"date":"2026-04-06","opponent":"Philadelphia Phillies","opp_id":143,"runs":0,"hits":1,"nrfi":true,"game_pk":823237}>,"home_nrfi_label":"2025-26 \u00b7 25 GS","home_arsenal_season":2025,"market_nrfi_pct":59.8,"model_nrfi_pct":49.0,"nrfi_pct":49.0,"model_tier":"Borderline","model_eligible":true,"confidence_score":72,"edge":-10.8}>,"nrfi_rate_prior_season":49.8,"nrfi_rate_current_season":57.4,"league_avg_k_pct":23.4,"league_avg_barrel_pct":6.1,"league_avg_xwoba":0.327,"league_avg_first_era":4.64,"league_avg_fip":4.13,"league_avg_era":4.12}
24 April 2026
21+ If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling, and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800 GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537)