Thursday, October 8, 2026. One game on the NFL slate: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road taking on the Dallas Cowboys. Twenty-three players on the anytime touchdown board. And the committee looked at all of it and came back with no picks. None. Zero recommended plays today.
That is not a malfunction. The committee is selective by design. When the board does not offer a play that clears the threshold, you do not force one. What this page gives you today is a full read of the model numbers, what they mean, and how they compare to the market. You take it from there.
Understanding the Board
Model TD% is a probability, not a prediction. When you see 54.9%, that means: in a large sample of comparable situations, a player like this scores in roughly 55 out of 100 contests. He also does not score in roughly 45 out of 100. Even the top of this board is not a lock. Football produces variance that no model can eliminate. These numbers are real and they are useful, but they are probabilities and you should treat them as such.
The comparison between Model TD% and the market implied probability is where the analysis lives. When the model is above the market implied, the model sees more scoring probability than the price reflects. When the model is below the market implied, the market is pricing the player higher than the model justifies. Neither number alone is a reason to bet. The committee weighs more than just that gap before recommending a play, which is why no recommendation appears today even though gaps exist on this board.
Dallas Cowboys Board Leaders
Javonte Williams tops the entire board at 54.9% Model TD%, a HIGH tier number. His market price is -196, which translates to an implied probability of 66.2%. That puts the market more than 11 percentage points above the model on Williams. Running backs who operate near the goal line tend to lead boards like this because they get the ball in the highest-percentage scoring situations. The market clearly agrees Williams is the primary scoring threat in this offense. The model is simply less certain than that price suggests.
CeeDee Lamb sits second at 40.3% Model TD%, HIGH tier, with market odds of +106 implying 48.5%. Again the market is above the model, this time by roughly eight points. Wide receivers generate touchdown upside when they get red-zone targets, but their per-game scoring frequency can be less consistent than a goal-line running back. George Pickens is third on the Dallas board at 32.7% Model TD%, HIGH tier, at +140 implying 41.7%. Market over model once more by nine points.
Ryan Flournoy at 28.9% Model TD% is the first Dallas player where the model sits above the market: +310 implies 24.4%, a gap of 4.5 points in the model's favor. Jake Ferguson is essentially even at 27.7% Model TD% against a market implied of 28.2%. Hunter Luepke comes in at 14.3% Model TD% versus a market implied of 10.2%, the model above the market by about four points. Brevyn Spann-Ford shows 11.0% against a market implied of 8.7%. KaVontae Turpin at 10.9% is nearly flat against a market implied of 11.1%.
Tyler Goodson at 9.9% trails his market implied of 13.9%. Dak Prescott at 9.1% Model TD% stands out because the market implies 17.2%, nearly double the model. That is a significant disagreement in the market's favor. Jonathan Mingo at 8.4% presents the sharpest model-over-market gap on the Dallas side: the market implies just 3.9%, a difference of 4.5 points. Luke Schoonmaker sits at 5.3% Model TD% against a market implied of 8.7%.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Side
Bucky Irving is the most analytically striking name on the entire board. His Model TD% is 40.1%, HIGH tier, which essentially matches CeeDee Lamb for second place overall. But his market odds are +220, implying only 31.2%. That is a gap of nearly nine percentage points in the model's favor. Whether that gap justifies a bet is a committee question, and the committee passed today. But as a piece of board analysis, it is the most prominent model-over-market reading on the slate and worth noting if you are doing your own work.
Cade Otton is at 20.3% Model TD%, HIGH tier, at +540 implying 15.6%. The model is about five points above the market here. Emeka Egbuka checks in at 19.4% against a market implied of 26.0%, with the market six points higher than the model. Chris Godwin Jr. at 18.6% is nearly even with his market implied of 17.5%. Tight ends and receivers who work in the red zone create scoring opportunities in concentrated situations, which is why these mid-range probabilities carry real weight even when the raw number feels modest.
Tez Johnson sits at 8.6% versus a market implied of 11.9%. Sean Tucker presents the widest gap on the Tampa Bay side: a Model TD% of 7.5% against a market implied of 20.4%. The market is pricing Tucker nearly three times higher than the model. That is a substantial disagreement and it goes in the market's favor entirely. Payne Durham at 4.8% is above his market implied of 2.5%. Kameron Johnson at 3.5% is slightly below his market implied of 4.5%. Ko Kieft at 2.1% is essentially flat against the market at 2.2%.
LOW-DATA Players
Two players on this board carry a LOW-DATA tier designation: Jalon Daniels (TB, QB) at 5.7% Model TD% and Bauer Sharp (TB, TE) at 3.7%. For LOW-DATA players, the model shrinks the estimate toward a position baseline because there is not enough individual game history to build a precise number. These figures are not wrong. They represent a reasonable calibrated estimate. But the uncertainty around them is higher than for HIGH tier players, and you should read them accordingly. Daniels is worth flagging specifically: the market implies 25.3% on him for anytime scoring and 8.0% for first touchdown, both well above the model's 5.7%. That gap is interesting on paper, but the LOW-DATA designation means acting on it carries more model uncertainty than the gap alone suggests.
First Touchdown Market
The first touchdown board on this slate is ranked by market price only. The model does not produce first-TD probabilities. It estimates anytime scoring only. Javonte Williams leads the first TD market at +285 with his anytime number at HIGH tier. CeeDee Lamb is second at +450. George Pickens third at +660. Bucky Irving fourth at +860. Jake Ferguson fifth at +1000. These prices are reference points. The anytime Model TD% appears beside each name for context, but do not treat it as a first-TD probability. Scoring first is a subset of scoring at all, and the model only measures the broader outcome.
No Picks Today
The committee reviewed this board from top to bottom and found no play that meets the standard for a recommended bet. That happens on any slate. A board with 23 players does not automatically produce a play worth recommending, and working through the numbers without a committee pick is a legitimate outcome. Forcing a bet when nothing clears the bar is a faster way to lose than sitting out a Thursday. The model will be back. So will the games.
One game on a Thursday night is a focused look. Twenty-three players, one matchup, every number laid out above. Use the board for what it is: a comparison of model probability against market price. The gaps tell you where the model and the market disagree. They do not tell you where to put your money, and on a day when the committee has no recommended play, they are best read as context rather than action items.
All picks are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.
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