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24 October 20263min read

NFL Anytime TD Picks Sunday October 25: Aaron Jones Best Play on a 12-Game Slate

NFL anytime touchdown picks for Sunday October 25. Aaron Jones leads at +162 with a 52.4% model probability. 12 picks across a full Sunday slate.

Sunday, October 25 brings the full NFL treatment , 12 games, 499 players on the anytime touchdown board, and a lot of noise to cut through. I track model probabilities against market prices across every listed player. My job is to find the gaps where the number and the price do not match. Today those gaps show up from the first game to the last, and I have 12 plays I want on the card. My single best play this Sunday is Aaron Jones of the Minnesota Vikings, and that is where we start.

Best Play: Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings (+162)

The Indianapolis Colts vs Minnesota Vikings is where my best money goes on Sunday. Aaron Jones checks in at a 52.4% model touchdown probability in the HIGH tier. The market has him at +162, which implies 38.2%. That gap , over 14 percentage points in the model's favor , is the widest favorable spread I see anywhere on today's board. Running backs score touchdowns. That is the foundation of this whole market. When the model says a running back crosses the 50% threshold and the market is still paying you plus money, that is exactly the play. I am backing Jones as my top play of the day.

Jonathan Taylor also plays in this game. The model has Taylor at 48.2%, which is a strong number. But the market prices him at -109, implying 52.1%. The market is asking more than the model gives. I do not back players where the math runs against the price, no matter how good the player is. Taylor might score , he very well might. Today, the price is wrong for my purposes. Jones at +162 is where the value lives in this matchup. Be honest about what these numbers mean: a 52.4% probability means Jones misses this roughly half the time. These are probabilities, not guarantees.

The Model's Top Player Today: Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions

Before breaking down every game, one player demands attention because the model makes him the most likely scorer on Sunday. Jahmyr Gibbs of the Detroit Lions carries a 60.1% model touchdown probability , the highest number on the entire board. If you are looking at raw probability alone, Gibbs is your top player. But his market odds are -333, which implies 76.9%. The market is pricing Gibbs nearly 17 full percentage points above what the model estimates. That gap runs the wrong way. I passed. The model likes him. The price is the problem. At -333, you are risking $333 to win $100 on a player the model puts at 60%. The math does not work in your favor. Gibbs may absolutely score , his probability is real. But this page is about finding edges at prices that make sense, and -333 does not make sense here.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints , Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints

My pick in this game is Jaylen Warren of the Pittsburgh Steelers. The model gives Warren a 55.9% touchdown probability in the HIGH tier at -102, with the market implying 50.5%. Near even money for a 55.9% probability is exactly the play I want to be on. Running backs generate red zone opportunities. Lead backs score touchdowns. Warren at a price this close to even money for a number that strong is a straightforward play. Variance is real here , a 55.9% probability means Warren misses roughly four times out of ten. That is the nature of this market. But I want to be on the right side of this math at near-even money, and -102 gives me that.

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons , San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons

I have two plays in this game, and both come with strong recorded supporting data.

Bijan Robinson of the Atlanta Falcons is one of my most confident plays on the slate today. Robinson has scored an anytime touchdown in 6 of his last 10 games and went 1-for-1 against San Francisco in their only prior meeting. The backup running back, Brian Robinson, is out, making Bijan the undisputed bell-cow for Atlanta. He has posted 60-plus rushing yards in every tracked game this season and carries heavy red zone volume , 55 red zone carries and 13 red zone targets generating 3 touchdowns from those looks. Atlanta averages 149.5 rushing yards per game on offense. With no viable backup option, all the carries and short-yardage work run through Robinson. The -270 market price reflects exactly this situation. That is real market confidence backed by the data, and I am backing it at that number.

Christian McCaffrey of San Francisco is my second play in this game. McCaffrey has scored in 7 of his last 10 games, including 2 touchdowns in Week 6 and 2 more in Week 2. San Francisco's red zone touchdown rate is 85.00% this season, and McCaffrey has logged enormous red zone volume on both carries and targets per the charting data. With key wide receivers out, the 49ers' passing game consolidates around tight end George Kittle and depth options, which means the offense leans heavily on McCaffrey in all situations , early downs, third down, and the red zone. The game projects San Francisco in a position to lead, keeping the run game viable throughout. His career record against Atlanta historically reads 2-for-7, which is why my confidence is MEDIUM rather than HIGH on this one , there is a hedge in that number. But current-season form at roughly 1.17 touchdowns per game and the void left by missing wideouts make McCaffrey the most likely San Francisco scorer today. At -217, this is not a cheap price. I am in.

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans , Cleveland Browns vs Tennessee Titans

Tony Pollard is my pick here, and this play comes from matchup-specific reasoning rather than the model's standard probability estimate. Pollard has scored a touchdown in both of his career games against Cleveland, including 2 touchdowns on 25 carries for 161 yards in their most recent meeting in December 2025. His overall last-10 hit rate is 2 for 10, which is not a strong general number. But opponent-specific data is the most predictive signal available for this pick. Pollard has logged 39 red zone carries this season and is Tennessee's clear goal-line option, coming off a 19-carry game in the previous week. At +120, with a 2-for-2 career mark against this exact opponent and an established workhorse workload, this is a play I want on the board. Approach it with honest variance awareness , a 2-for-2 career sample is small , but the evidence points in the right direction at this price.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Chuba Hubbard of Carolina is my play. The model gives Hubbard a 49.1% touchdown probability in the HIGH tier at -106, with the market implying 51.5%. The gap is slim. Lead running backs near the 50% threshold at close-to-even money are exactly where I want to be in this market. Running backs score touchdowns. Hubbard's number sits just under a coin flip, and the price reflects that honestly. This is a variance play , Hubbard misses this about as often as he hits it , but at -106 for a player near 50% in the HIGH tier, I am comfortable having this on the card.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Zay Flowers of Baltimore is my play in this AFC North matchup. The model has Flowers at a 40.6% touchdown probability in the HIGH tier at +174, with the market implying 36.5%. That is a meaningful favorable gap. The model's top player in this game is Derrick Henry at 54.0%, but his market odds are -213, implying 68.0%. The market is asking 14 full percentage points more than the model gives for Henry. The price does not work there. Flowers at +174 does. A 40.6% probability means he misses six times out of ten at this estimate , be honest with yourself about that. But the price gives you real room, and wide receivers in productive passing offenses find their way to the end zone. The model rates Flowers well above what the market implies here, and that is the play.

New York Giants at Houston Texans

I am on Cam Skattebo of New York in this one. The model gives Skattebo a 29.6% probability in the HIGH tier at +350, with the market implying 22.2%. That is a 7-plus point favorable gap at a price with real return. Running backs generate goal-line opportunities. When the model rates one above the market by this margin in the HIGH tier, I want the exposure at a plus-money price. This is a lower-probability play , Skattebo misses this roughly three times for every hit at this number , but the +350 price compensates well for that variance. The gap between the model and the market is real.

Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals

I have two plays in this matchup. RJ Harvey of Denver sits at 36.4% in the HIGH tier at +275, with the market implying 26.7%. Michael Wilson of Arizona checks in at 34.3% in the HIGH tier at +240, with the market implying 29.4%. Harvey shows a bigger positive gap , over 9 points in the model's favor. Wilson's gap is about 5 points. Both numbers are real. Running backs and wide receivers generating touchdown probabilities in the 34 to 36 percent range, priced at plus money, are exactly the kind of multi-game exposure plays I want on a 12-game Sunday. These are not high-probability locks , both miss more often than they hit at these numbers. But when the model and the price diverge in your favor at these returns, I want both plays on the card.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

Sam LaPorta of Detroit is my pick in this game. The model has LaPorta at 42.8% in the HIGH tier at +170, with the market implying 37.0%. A 5-plus point favorable gap for a tight end at plus money is real value in this market. Tight ends with established roles in productive offenses show up regularly in anytime touchdown results, and when the model rates one above 40% at plus money, I want to be on it. This game projects as one of the bigger offensive environments on the Sunday slate, which benefits a tight end in an active role. A 42.8% probability means LaPorta misses well over half the time , that is the honest number. At +170, the price justifies the exposure.

Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders

Tre Tucker of Las Vegas is my play. The model gives Tucker a 26.7% probability in the HIGH tier at +320, with the market implying 23.8%. The model's top players in this game , Kyren Williams at 56.6% and Puka Nacua at 46.6% , both carry market prices that reflect strong public confidence in those names. Neither is my pick in this game; the market has already absorbed that information. Tucker at +320 with a favorable model gap is where I want to be. Wide receivers with active roles in productive passing offenses generate touchdown opportunities, and at three-to-one plus, the model is giving me real value against what the market implies for Tucker.

Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks

Kenneth Walker III of the Kansas City Chiefs is my final pick of the day. The model has Walker at 53.1% in the HIGH tier at -125, with the market implying 55.6%. The gap here is narrow , the market is about 2.5 points ahead of the model. This is the closest call on the card. But Walker's probability tops 50%, his tier is HIGH, and lead running backs at near-even money with a number this strong are the type of play I want on a full Sunday card. The late-slate positioning of this game , a road team in a high-stakes environment , tends to lean on the running back in tight situations. Walker is my last play of the day.

First Touchdown Market

The first touchdown board is ranked by market price only. The model does not estimate first-TD probability. The anytime model number appears on the board for context only , it is not a first-TD estimate. Among my picks today, the most accessible first-TD entry points are Jaylen Warren at +490 and Aaron Jones at +560. Both carry strong anytime model probabilities and lead back designations. If you want a shot at calling the opening scorer, those two names offer the highest model-backed support among my picks at a manageable price. Calling the first touchdown scorer is a narrow target in any game. These prices reflect that. The anytime data supports both names as the most likely scorers on their respective teams , what happens first is a different, harder question.

That is the full card for Sunday, October 25 , 12 plays across a 12-game slate, led by Aaron Jones at +162 as my single best play of the day. The thread running through this entire card is price. The model flags players where the probability and the market price diverge, and today those gaps show up at every level , from near-even-money plays like Warren and Hubbard to longer looks like Skattebo at +350 and Tre Tucker at +320. Build your card with honest expectations. Even the top plays on this board miss more often than they hit in any single game. Spread your risk across games, size your bets responsibly, and let the model's probability edge work over a full season of decisions rather than any one Sunday result.

All picks are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.

24 October 2026

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NFL Anytime TD Picks Sunday October 25: Aaron Jones Best Play on a 12-Game Slate

Best Play: Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings (+162)

The Model's Top Player Today: Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions

Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints , Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons , San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans , Cleveland Browns vs Tennessee Titans

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

New York Giants at Houston Texans

Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders

Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks

First Touchdown Market

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