Brewers Win Ugly While Yankees, Braves Power Over Totals

Brewers Win Ugly, But Win Nonetheless

Milwaukee fans might want to avert their eyes from the RISP column in the box score, but they’ll happily take the 3-2 win over the Nationals. The Brewers struggled mightily with runners in scoring position, an ongoing issue that could haunt them in tighter playoff races. That said, they scraped together enough offense to back up a solid bullpen effort. Betting-wise, Milwaukee continues to be a team that wins ugly, so consider the under in close matchups, especially against weaker offenses. The Nationals’ Erick Fedde looked sharp, though, which could make him a sneaky good bet for strikeout props moving forward.

Yankees and Braves: Home Run Derby Continues

The Bronx Bombers lived up to the nickname, pounding the Nationals 11-3 behind Aaron Judge’s 41st homer. Judge is heating up at the right time, and the Yankees are starting to look like a dangerous AL East bet. Adam Rosenberg is already on board, citing their favorable schedule and improving pitching as reasons to believe. Meanwhile, the Braves flexed their muscles in a 12-1 rout of the Marlins, with Profar going yard twice. Atlanta’s offense is clicking again, and when they're rolling, the over is a strong play, especially in games against shaky pitching like the Marlins offered up.

Dodgers and Phillies: October Ready

The Dodgers kept their momentum with a 5-1 win over the Reds, and the Phillies stayed hot with a gritty 4-3 extra-inning win over the Rays. These are two teams bettors should start circling for futures. The Phillies’ rotation is stabilizing, their bullpen is no longer a liability, and they’ve been producing runs at home. The Dodgers, when healthy, are one of the most potent lineups in MLB. If you're looking for postseason value, both teams are peaking at the right time.

Over Is the New Under

Scoring is up, and the betting market hasn’t fully adjusted. Over the past week, most MLB games have gone over the total, and favorites are hitting at a solid 59-37 clip. That’s a juicy combo for parlay hunters. Offensive explosions like the Royals’ 12-1 thrashing of the White Sox and the Rangers’ 11-3 win over the Angels are becoming more common. Kansas City’s Salvador Perez and Texas’ power duo of Joc Pederson and Corey Seager are key contributors to this trend. If you're betting totals, lean toward the over until the books adjust.

Cubs in a Post-All-Star Slump

The Cubs got thumped 12-3 by the Giants, and it wasn’t pretty. Drew Smyly gave up two runs, Conner Ray surrendered seven in less than five innings, and the offense continues to sputter. Since the All-Star break, Chicago has been one of the most underwhelming offenses in baseball. The Giants, meanwhile, are getting solid outings from Logan Webb at home (career ERA of 2.77 in San Francisco), and their bats woke up thanks to contributions from Matt Chapman and Aloy Ramos. In Giants home games, consider the over but pair it with a Giants moneyline if Webb is starting.

Underrated Arms and RBI Machines

September betting strategies are shifting. Instead of leaning on home run props, smart bettors are targeting RBIs and strikeouts. Undervalued hitters like Vinnie Pasquantino and George Springer are quietly producing in run-scoring situations. On the mound, pitchers like Jonah Tongue are defying trends with absurd minor league strikeout rates (over 40% as a starter). Keep an eye on call-ups and fringe starters in September, especially as teams rest regulars and test prospects.

Owner Sentiment and Clubhouse Vibes

A recent Reddit-based sentiment analysis revealed what most fans already know: some MLB owners are deeply unpopular. John Fisher (Athletics), Jerry Reinsdorf (White Sox), and Bob Nutting (Pirates) top the list of most hated. It matters more than you think, poor ownership often translates to lackluster investment, which affects clubhouse morale and, eventually, win totals. Keep this in mind when betting on teams like the Pirates or Nationals, where apathy has crept into both the fanbase and possibly the clubhouse.

Veteran Pitchers Turning Back the Clock

Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, and Max Scherzer are proving age ain’t nothing but a number. All three have been lights out recently, with Verlander ranking sixth in Fangraphs WAR over the last month. For bettors, this means you can still trust these vets in big-game situations. Kershaw, in particular, has been winning games efficiently, even if he’s not going deep into outings. Be mindful of bullpen matchups when backing these guys, but don’t shy away from betting them based on age alone.

Rookie Watch and Minor League Trends

Strikeout rates in the majors are dipping slightly, and that could be tied to a shift in how teams evaluate prospects. High-strikeout hitters are no longer the darlings they once were. Instead, organizations are prioritizing contact hitters, which could lead to a wave of more disciplined bats entering the league. This shift is worth noting for future player prop bets and even long-term futures, as teams with higher-contact lineups may outperform expectations.

Takeaways

• Yankees and Braves are smashing the over with elite power performances.
• Phillies and Dodgers are heating up at the right time, strong playoff futures bets.
• Over bets are cashing more often than not; totals haven’t caught up to the offense surge.
• The Cubs are in a post-All-Star funk, fade their offense until further notice.
• Look for value in strikeouts and RBIs in September prop markets.
• Veteran aces like Verlander and Kershaw are still worth backing.
• Ownership sentiment can directly impact team performance, fade the dysfunction.