Seattle’s Surge, AL Chaos & Keys to Profitable MLB Bets

Seattle Surges, AL Chaos, and Why Fading Dean Kremer Might Be Profitable

In a season where the American League feels more like a royal rumble than a regular baseball campaign, the Seattle Mariners are quietly making the most noise. They're now nipping at the heels of the Houston Astros, just half a game back, and their offensive explosion has bettors taking notice. With George Kirby on the mound tonight and Dean Kremer toeing the rubber for Baltimore, there’s real value in fading Kremer, especially given his post-100-pitch outing fatigue and the Orioles' shaky bullpen.

Kremer has struggled after long outings, and the Mariners, led by the likes of Cal Raleigh (aka the “Big Dumper”) and a rejuvenated lineup, are mashing right now. The under on Kremer’s pitching outs (17.5) is a sharp play. Seattle’s ability to chase starters early could make this a short night for Kremer, and with the O’s bullpen already showing cracks, backing the Mariners on the moneyline or run line also has merit.

The AL Is a Free-for-All—So Let’s Talk Futures

Forget what you thought you knew about American League powerhouses. This year, the field is wide open. The Yankees, despite a 6–2 win over the Twins, are still flirting with playoff uncertainty. The Red Sox, since trading Rafael Devers, have turned into an offensive juggernaut, while the Astros—who squeaked by the White Sox 7–6—remain dangerous but inconsistent. Meanwhile, Texas is proving their recent struggles may be behind them, and Kansas City is showing signs of life with a 7–4 win over the Nats, thanks largely to the bats of Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez.

Now is a prime time to reassess your futures bets. Seattle’s World Series odds are shortening, and for good reason. Their rotation is stable, the offense is clicking, and the bullpen (with arms like Andrés Muñoz and Edward Pizarra) is quietly elite. Houston, while still dangerous, has been sloppy, and the Yankees’ inconsistency makes them a risky long-term bet. Consider sprinkling on Seattle or even Boston if you’re feeling spicy.

Props Spotlight: Rinse, Repeat, and Ride the Hot Bats

If you’ve been riding Tyler Soderstrom’s total bases props, you’re probably smiling. The A’s slugger has cashed his over 1.5 total bases prop in 10 straight games, and with Bass on the mound for the Rays—a pitcher who's been lit up recently—there’s no reason to hop off the train now. At -110, it’s still offering good value in a matchup where Soderstrom could feast again.

While we’re at it, Dustin May to allow over 2.5 earned runs at +134 against Houston is worth a look. His road ERA is north of 9, and despite a brief shutout stint against Minnesota, his trend line is steeply downward. Houston’s lineup has been crushing righties lately, and May’s high hard-hit rate and walk issues make this a high-upside spot for bettors who like to sweat early runs.

Don’t Sleep on the Brewers and Marlins

The Milwaukee Brewers are quietly becoming a bettor’s best friend. After thumping the Pirates 7–1, they’re showing dominance in both lineup depth and bullpen reliability. With Paul Skenes on the mound for Pittsburgh in the rematch, the Brewers are still favored for a reason. Skenes is talented, but Milwaukee’s bats are relentless. Look for them to stay hot and cover on the run line.

Meanwhile, the Miami Marlins could be a sneaky value play in their matchup with the Guardians. Cleveland is missing closer Emmanuel Clase and has been struggling offensively. With Miami’s bullpen trending upward and their offense clicking on the road, the under might also be in play here, especially with both teams leaning on back-end starters. Miami’s ability to manufacture runs and keep games tight makes them a live dog or even a first-five innings play.

Fade City: Dylan Carlson and Dean Kremer

Two names to keep fading until the sportsbooks adjust? Dylan Carlson and Dean Kremer. Carlson has just one hit in his last 15 games, making the under 0.5 hits at +125 a juicy and data-backed play. His expected batting average continues to plummet, and he’s facing a tough pitcher in George Kirby, who has been stingy with hits allowed in recent starts.

Kremer, as mentioned earlier, is a prime fade candidate. The Mariners are rolling, and Kremer’s recent workload and lack of swing-and-miss stuff could lead to a quick hook. If you’re looking to stack some plus-money plays, pairing Carlson under hits and Kremer under outs could be a profitable parlay.

Takeaways

• Seattle’s offense is red-hot—fade Dean Kremer and consider Mariners run line or moneyline plays.
• The American League is wide open—Seattle and Boston could offer value in the futures market.
• Tyler Soderstrom is on a heater—ride his over 1.5 total bases prop until the market adjusts.
• Dustin May is a fade machine—back the Astros to score early and often.
• Milwaukee and Miami are sharp plays—both teams are showing strong bullpen performance and favorable matchups.
• Dylan Carlson under hits is a quietly profitable prop with plus-money upside.