The mismatch starts with pace. Portland runs at 102.1 possessions per game (seventh league-wide); Charlotte operates at 98.3 (25th). That eight-possession differential isn't theoretical. Portland forces tempo, attacks in transition, and thrives in chaos. Charlotte wants to grind halfcourt, where their elite #4 offense (117.6 ORTG) can operate. But at home, that elite rating masks a brittle defense that cracks under pressure. Deni Avdija, down 6.9 PPG from season average despite holding 28.2% usage, will hunt mismatches all night. Charlotte's perimeter discipline at home isn't there.

The clutch stat: Brandon Miller's 22.7% FG% in tight games (1.4 PPG in clutch moments). That's not a cold stretch. That's a pattern. Portland's road teams thrive in exactly these late-game situations. Coby White's surge (+9.1 PPG in L10) is legitimate and dangerous, especially after he dropped 25 on Portland earlier this season. But one hot player doesn't fix Charlotte's systemic home execution problem. Form splits matter more than aggregate records, and Portland owns this one.

• Road-home splits reveal the real edge: Portland 3-0 away vs Charlotte 0-2 at home in L5 despite Hornets' W3 overall
• Pace creates scoring variance: Portland #7 (102.1) vs Charlotte #25 (98.3) drives higher totals and favors Portland's transition game
• Deni Avdija down PPG but holding 28.2% usage, Charlotte's weak perimeter defense at home is the matchup vulnerability
• Coby White's +9.1 PPG surge in L10 (including 25 points in season matchup vs Portland) is dangerous but can't mask systematic home collapse
• Brandon Miller's 22.7% clutch FG% (1.4 PPG in close moments) reveals why Charlotte folds at home when games tighten
• Portland's road edge in execution, fast-break pace, and clutch moments directly contradicts Charlotte's aggregate stats

Portland's road mastery versus Charlotte's home breakdown is the defining matchup. Deni Avdija's 28.2% usage, even with PPG declining, exploits Charlotte's perimeter defense. Coby White's +9.1 PPG surge in L10 is legitimate danger, but it masks the real problem: Brandon Miller shooting 22.7% from the field in clutch moments (1.4 PPG). That's not a cold stretch. That's a pattern. Portland's road discipline exposes these weaknesses when games tighten.

The contrarian case (trusting Charlotte's #4 ORTG and W3 streak) appeals to sharp money betting aggregate form. But splits matter more than three-game samples when records are even. Portland is undervalued. The secondary edge is the Over, where pace forces both teams into volume situations they can't control.