OKC comes in hot. They've won three straight and are outscoring teams by 11.7 points per game on the season, best in the league. But look closer at how they travel. In their last 10 games, the Thunder are 4-1 on the road. The Pistons, meanwhile, are just 3-2 at home in that same stretch. That's a red flag for bettors putting so much money on Detroit's home advantage.

Detroit had to shake off a loss in their last outing, but over 10 games they're 8-2 with the league's second-best defense. Cade Cunningham is the offensive engine at 25.3 PPG. Against an OKC team ranked first in defense, Cunningham's going to feel the pressure.

• Both teams play nearly identical pace (100.5 vs 100.7). This is not a race. Expect slow, careful possessions and a first half that stays in the mid-50s for both teams.
• Detroit's defense has been rock solid, holding opponents to 106.2 PPG in their last 10. OKC held opponents to 106.6. The odds are betting too much on scoring after both teams put up 115-plus recently.
• First-half execution wins games. Whichever team gets to 55-60 by halftime likely controls the game. Late-game execution beats explosive scoring runs.
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander stays elite no matter who he faces. He's averaging 31.3 PPG over his last 10 games with 55.4% shooting and 39% from three. That kind of shooting means points happen, elite defense or not.
• The Thunder's road success (4-1 in L10) versus the Pistons' home record (3-2 in L10) is a mismatch the betting world has not fully adjusted for in the spread.

The Thunder +10 is a secondary angle for more aggressive bettors. OKC's road success (4-1) combined with their league-best defense puts Detroit in a tighter spot than the odds suggest. If you're not ready to back OKC to win outright, the spread gives you value on a team that should not be 10-point underdogs.

One caveat: variance happens. Even elite defenses have nights where the ball bounces the wrong way. But the data here is straightforward. Low-scoring defensive battles are more likely than scoring explosions, and the betting market is pricing the opposite.