What's interesting isn't that Atlanta should win, but how. The Hawks' last 5 games reveal a surprising truth: they're 3-2 despite barely escaping. Their +1.6 average margin over that stretch looks like a team barely holding on, not one dominant enough to justify 82.9% win probability. Washington's losses have been close, and Alex Sarr is playing meaningful basketball at 17.9 PPG over his last 10 games. This isn't a matchup where the inferior team gets blown out before tipoff.

The pace dynamic matters here. Atlanta loves to run (third-fastest pace in the league), while Washington plays among the slowest (sixth-fastest). That clash creates a grinding, low-scoring environment. Atlanta's defense ranks 16th versus Washington's league-worst 28th rated D, but in this matchup, the Wizards' methodical approach keeps them closer than their record suggests.

• Atlanta's recent 3-2 stretch with a +1.6 margin shows they're winning ugly, not dominating. These are tight, competitive games despite the record advantage.
• Washington's terrible defense would normally spell blowout, but the team's slow pace keeps possessions low and scoring suppressed across the board.
• Alex Sarr is the only Wizard capable of matching Atlanta's interior threat. His 17.9 PPG last 10 games (up from 17.2 season avg) suggests he'll keep Washington competitive.
• CJ McCollum must establish the perimeter early for Atlanta. Against Washington's weak outside defense, an aggressive McCollum sets the Hawks' entire rhythm.
• Jalen Johnson is Atlanta's engine at 23.2 PPG and 10.6 RPG. If he controls the glass, the Hawks build separation. If he struggles, this stays close.
• Expect a fourth-quarter finish. Based on form and pace, this plays like a 6-8 point game entering the final quarter, not a blowout by halftime.

The key insight: Atlanta's recent form isn't dominant. Their +1.6 average margin over the last 5 games, despite a 3-2 record, shows they're barely escaping close games. Washington's 0-2 road record is brutal, but their recent losses have been competitive. Expect a fourth-quarter finish around 116-113 Hawks. The Under is the best angle here, supported by both our model and the grind of recent games.

Caveat: Variance exists. If Jalen Johnson dominates early or CJ McCollum establishes the three, Atlanta could pull away. But the smart money leans on a tight, low-scoring game that ends Under the line.