The New Orleans Pelicans, sitting at home in the Smoothie King Center, smell weakness. They're 3-2 at home in their last five games, and they've built a roster with two efficient scorers who punish teams when Curry isn't firing: Zion Williamson shoots 58.7 percent from the field, and Trey Murphy III is hitting 47.6 percent and averaging 22.3 points per game over his last ten. These aren't flashy names driving national narratives, but they're the exact type of scorers who feast when the opposing team's star is cold.

Golden State has beaten New Orleans twice this season (104-96 and 124-106 back in November), but both wins came when the Warriors had their rhythm. This road trip? Different story. The Pelicans know what they're getting: a Warriors team that's lost its usual flow, and a Curry searching for his touch.

• Zion Williamson's efficiency (58.7 percent FG) becomes a nightmare matchup for Warriors' road defense, which hasn't been sharp.
• Curry's shooting volume will face aggressive perimeter defense designed to force role players to beat New Orleans.
• Pelicans' home court historically limits the Warriors to one-dimensional basketball. Expect that defensive scheme again.
• Warriors' road turnovers (16.0 per game L10) combined with New Orleans' solid home defense create easy second-chance scoring.
• The game hinges on whether role players like Jimmy Butler (51.9 percent FG, 20.0 PPG) can carry the load if Curry stays cold.
• New Orleans at home plays tighter, more physical defense that disrupts shooting rhythm better than neutral venues.

• Pelicans +2.0 is the core play: Warriors are nearly even money favorites (minus-115) despite their road collapse, making New Orleans undervalued at home. The 5.8-point swing between Golden State's home differential (plus-4.5) and road differential (minus-1.3) is a classic letdown angle.
• Stephen Curry Under 27.5 PPG is solid secondary pick: He's averaging 22.8 points in his last ten games, and road defenses from mid-tier teams force tougher shot selection. Murphy's perimeter defense is good enough to bother him without being elite.
• Warriors' away margin (minus-1.3) versus home margin (plus-4.5) tells the whole story. Home-court advantage could swing this by five-plus points alone.
• Pelicans' offensive efficiency at home (117.5 PPG in L10 home games, 3-2 record) gives them enough firepower to stay close, especially if Zion gets early touches in the paint.
• Contrarian angle to monitor: If Curry regresses to his season average (27.2 PPG) or higher, and Jimmy Butler stays aggressive, Warriors cover easily. It's a real scenario but not the main play.
• The under 221.5 total has sneaky value given recent defensive form from both teams on the road (Warriors allowing 115.5 PPG L10, Pelicans allowing 115.9 L10).

The best angle is Pelicans plus-2.0. You're not banking on a New Orleans upset. You're banking on a Warriors team historically better at home than on the road. The odds don't fully reflect the 5.8-point gap between Golden State's home and away performance. Zion and Murphy are efficient enough to keep this close, and even if Curry cools further, Jimmy Butler's decent form (20.0 PPG, 51.9 percent FG) means the Warriors won't run away.

One caveat: Curry could absolutely explode for 31 or 32 and drag the Warriors to a 118-112 win. That's basketball. But given recent form and road context, the Pelicans at plus-2.0 is the smarter play.