The Houston Rockets are the opposite. At home, Houston is 19-7 with a plus-5.9 point margin. They rank eighth in offensive efficiency and fifth in defensive efficiency. When Sacramento walks into Toyota Center, they face an elite home team that has barely lost a game all season. The talent gap is real, and the venue makes it worse.

Sacramento's best scorers are struggling. Zach LaVine is averaging 16.7 points over the last 10 games, down 2.5 from his season average. DeMar DeRozan is down to 15.6 points in that same span, down 3 from his season average. Meanwhile, Sacramento ranks 28th in offensive efficiency while also ranking 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 119.9 points per 100 possessions. Houston's defense will make life harder on both of them.

Houston sits in the Western Conference's third spot after a win. Sacramento is 13-46 overall and 1-9 in their last 10. The storyline is simple: unstoppable home force meets a team that cannot score on the road. History suggests Sacramento has no answer.

• Sacramento's 4-26 away record is historically bad. They score 109.3 points and give up 122.8 in their last 10 away games. Houston's home defense will exploit that.
• Houston plays slow (96.7 pace, ranked 28th league-wide), which limits possessions and favors superior talent and defense. Sacramento needs a fast tempo. Houston will force a halfcourt grind.
• LaVine and DeRozan are both down in their last 10 games. Sacramento's two best wing scorers are not in rhythm. Houston's fifth-ranked defense thrives against struggling offenses.
• Houston's home margin is plus-5.9. Sacramento's away margin is minus-13.5. That 19.4-point gap between the teams' home and away splits explains why this mismatch gets worse the further Sacramento travels.
• Blowouts suppress total points. If Houston builds a 20-point lead by halftime as predicted, backups see early minutes in the third quarter and beyond. Defenses relax. Sacramento's offensive weakness makes staying under 220 points likely.

The Under 220.5 is the secondary play. Sacramento's 28th-ranked offense paired with Houston's slow pace creates a game that stays under 220 even if Houston wins by 15 instead of 20. Backups will get early run, which suppresses scoring and makes the under an attractive secondary bet.

The caveat: basketball is not played on a spreadsheet. Sacramento just won their last game and could catch Houston sleeping. Teams can shoot lights out on any given night. But the data and trends point hard toward Houston covering and the total landing under. This is a setup where the favorite is favored for good reason.